[1. US tourism officials sound alarm, tourist fligh to US sink 70% and could impact up to 140k hospitality jobs and $14B in economic spending ](#1- us-tourism-officials-sound-alarm-tourist-fli)
[2. Trump Tells Inner Circle That Musk Will Leave Soon](#2-``` trump-tells-inner-circle-that-musk-will-leav)
[3. Atlanta Feds GDP estimate -3.7%](#3-``` atlanta-feds-gdp-estimate-3-7-

- [4. ```
The Folksam Group (Sweden) is selling i``` entire shareholding in Tesla
```](#4-```
the-folksam-group-sweden-is-selling-i```-ent)
- [5. ```
Tesla repor``` 336,000 vehicle deliveries in first quarter
```](#5-```
tesla-repor```-336-000-vehicle-deliveries-in)
- [6. ```
Conservative cable channel Newsmax spikes more than 700% in first trading day on NYSE
```](#6-```
conservative-cable-channel-newsmax-spikes-mo)
- [7. ```
China Restric``` Companies From Investing in US as Tensions Rise
```](#7-```
china-restric```-companies-from-investing-in)
- [8. ```
Why is TSLA up 5% today?
```](#8-```
why-is-tsla-up-5-today-
```)
- [9. ```
NYT: Amazon has submitted a last-minute bid to acquire TikTok ahead of Saturday's deadline
```](#9-```
nyt-amazon-has-submitted-a-last-minute-bid-t)
- [10. ```
Tesla Hidey Hole (Richmond, VA)- Don't believe the numbers tomorrow but the ERDF is real.
```](#10-```
tesla-hidey-hole-richmond-va-don-t-believe-)
- [11. ```
Trump Media shares drop after warning the presidents trust and other insiders could sell stock
```](#11-```
trump-media-shares-drop-after-warning-the-p)
- [12. ```
Though``` on gene editing stocks? Getting smoked
```](#12-```
though```-on-gene-editing-stocks-getting-sm)
- [13. ```
Wait a second. Does this look concerning.
```](#13-```
wait-a-second-does-this-look-concerning-
``)
- [14. ```
Rivian pos``` sharp fall in quarterly deliveries as soft demand weighs
```](#14-```
rivian-pos```-sharp-fall-in-quarterly-deliv)
- [15. ```
TSMCs $100B Pledge Reportedly Fails to Convince Investors, Analys```  Retail Remains Bearish
```](#15-```
tsmcs-100b-pledge-reportedly-fails-to-convi)
- [16. ```
r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Apr 02, 2025
```](#16-```
r-stocks-daily-discussion-wednesday-apr-02-)
- [17. ```
The AI trade is far from over.
```](#17-```
the-ai-trade-is-far-from-over-
```)
- [18. ```
Interesting Stocks Today (04/2)
```](#18-```
interesting-stocks-today-04-2-
```)
- [19. ```
Strategy advice
```](#19-```
strategy-advice
```)
- [20. ```
Do index funds and ETF's regularly change their holdings?
```](#20-```
do-index-funds-and-etf-s-regularly-change-t)
- [21. ```
Heikin Ashi Quarterly candle
```](#21-```
heikin-ashi-quarterly-candle
```)
- [22. ```
Buying a large position/ or an entire micro cap company?
```](#22-```
buying-a-large-position-or-an-entire-micro-)
- [23. ```
Am I Doing this Right
```](#23-```
am-i-doing-this-right
```)
- [24. ```
Stock bea``` earnings expectations and immediately drops 17%
```](#24-```
stock-bea```-earnings-expectations-and-imme)
- [25. ```
Reddit stocks has become 90% retail day traders or else buy and hold
```](#25-```
reddit-stocks-has-become-90-retail-day-trad)
- [26. ```
Is This a 'Buy the Dip' Moment for U.S. Stocks? - WSJ
```](#26-```
is-this-a-buy-the-dip-moment-for-u-s-stocks)
- [27. ```
Bought NVDA at the wrong time? Not sure what to do next
```](#27-```
bought-nvda-at-the-wrong-time-not-sure-what)
- [28. ```
Explain GameStop
```](#28-```
explain-gamestop
```)

---

## 1. ```
US tourism officials sound alarm, tourist fligh``` to US sink 70% and could impact up to 140k hospitality jobs and $14B in economic spending
``` {#1-```
us-tourism-officials-sound-alarm-tourist-fli}

### 核心討論主題總結：
該文章的核心主題是 **「因美國政策導致國際旅遊需求驟降，作者如何透過分析加拿大旅遊業的數據變化，制定相應的長短線股票交易策略」**。具體可分為以下重點：

1. **現象分析**：  
   - 加拿大是美國最大旅遊客源國（佔國際遊客26%），但近期因美國政策（關稅、入境限制、負面事件等）引發抵制，導致加拿大赴美旅遊數據暴跌（航空旅行下降70%、陸路下降45%，85%遊客取消行程）。  
   - 歐洲等其他地區也出現類似趨勢（如歐洲赴美預訂量下降25%），暗示全球旅遊需求可能進一步惡化。

2. **交易策略**：  
   - **做空（Short）**：  
     - 高度依賴美加航線的航空公司（如加拿大航空、WestJet母公司ONEX）及相關產業（飛機維修、航膳供應商、機場零售）。  
     - 美加邊境州的酒店、餐飲業及非必需消費零售商（如Target）。  
   - **做多（Long）**：  
     - 專注非美國市場的國際酒店集團及旅遊平台（因遊客可能轉向歐洲/亞洲/大洋洲）。  
     - 區域性航空機庫（因小型機隊需求下降，但國際長途航線未受影響）。

3. **關鍵論點**：  
   - 作者認為加拿大數據是「先行指標」，未來美國政策擴及全球後，旅遊業衝擊將加劇，經濟損失可能達140億美元（原預估的14倍）。  
   - 策略核心在於「受損產業的連鎖效應」與「需求轉移機會」，並強調需觀察政策全面實施後的消費者行為變化。

4. **補充討論**：  
   - 讀者互動中，作者進一步說明對航空業的具體操作（如做空加拿大航空供應鏈），並開放討論策略合理性。  

**總結**：文章結合政策影響、數據分析與市場行為預測，提出一套針對旅遊業衰退的跨市場投資對沖方案。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpgdmv/us_tourism_officials_sound_alarm_tourist_flights/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpgdmv/us_tourism_officials_sound_alarm_tourist_flights/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpgdmv/us_tourism_officials_sound_alarm_tourist_flights/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpgdmv/us_tourism_officials_sound_alarm_tourist_flights/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 12:32:37

### 內容

Here is my way of trying to find alpha in an erratic stock market - how I'm trading the US tourism dip.

1. Canada is the US's largest source of tourism: In 2024, 20 million Canadian touris visited the US, spent $20.5 billion, and supported 140,000 US jobs. Canada's population is 40 million, so 50% of the entire country visited, and the US had 77 million touris so 1 country is contributing 26% of visi```.

2. Recent US policies is leading to a tourism boycott from Canadians, and the rest of the world: Touris are boycotting US tourism due to tariffs, annexation threa, new travel barriers, and stories of visitors being unlawfully detained with no due process (in March a Canadian citizen was denied entry due to an expired visa, while this was a worker and not a tourist, instead of being allowed to return to Canada, as is the norm, she was shackled in chains and sent to a private ICE facility for 2 weeks without being able to contact a lawyer or get a bed).

**3. Analys previously predicted policies would decrease tourism by 5%, new numbers released this week show that it's 14x higher:** For Canada alone (26% of US's entire tourism industry with 20 million visitors) - airline travel is **down** **70%**, land travel is **down** **45%**, and **85%+** of touris survey say they cancelled their US trips.

4. Here's how I'm planning on using this information to make stock trades into specific companies both long and short: I'm shorting airlines that have high exposure to Can-US routes (it's been reported that airlines are slashing these routes due to 0 demand, and they is no clear way they can cover this revenue gap with a lower utilized fleet). I'm shorting select hospitality chains (hotels, restauran) with high exposure/retail foot print in US states that border Canada like Niagara Falls. The US travel association says that even just a 10% dip in touris will lead to $2 billion in economic losses and 140,000 jobs at risk (assuming 70% decrease from air travel happens across the board, that's $14b), I expect hospitality to have lower revenues. I'm shorting all non-essential or higher price retailers with a big footprint in hostility states, all these workers being laid off by lack of tourism + the gov worker job cu``` won't have as much to spend (not my specific trade, but an example would be short Target, long Dollar General).

I'm long, and buying, non-American/Europe hotel chains and travel booking platforms that get most of their revenue ouide the US, as I expect Canadian and international touris to concentrate their spend to Europe/Asia/Oceania travel this summer.

Edit 5. How do the European/International figures play?

It's important to note that the Canadian tourism numbers dipped after the policies that happened in point 2. And we're seeing what those numbers are a few months later now. The US admin is rolling out these policies across the board tomorrow during "Liberation Day". The point here is that we won't see the true vector of an internal tourism boycott both in terms of magnitude and direction until the policies that were enacted on Canada are enacted globally, and consumers have time to adjust behaviour. But if the Canadian consumer is any indication, I have more conviction in my trades. A glimpse into this being a trend is a French travel company reporting to Bloomberg their Europe to US travel bookings are down 25%.

Edit 6. Example of the airline play

Yes I know US airlines are already down a lot. Rode that wave and exited my shor```. Now I'm shorting Air Canada and ONEX (parent company of WestJet), since they have much more exposure to US-Can routes, and are cutting routes dramatically with no increase in capacity elsewhere

Also looking to short airline maitence companies, the food suppliers specific to flight food, and fuel refineries/storage those two airlines use, and retail stores with large exposure to airpor``` that only see US/Canada travel.

But going long on regional air craft hangers since their smaller flee are used the most for US/Canada travel, while their bigger flee will still be active for the europe/asia flight routes that havn't seen impact on demand.

Would like to hear what everyone thinks about this trade play. Thanks!

Source for numbers used

https://theconversation.com/touris-are-cancelling-trips-to-the-us-heres-how-this-could-affect-i-economy-252858
[https://www.ustravel.org/press/potential-resul-decline-canadian-travel-united-states](`https`://www.ustravel.org/press/potential-resul-decline-canadian-travel-united-states)
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/world/canada/air-canada-fligh-sea-us.html
https://financialpost.com/news/canadian-us-shopping-trips-dwindle
https://www.discovercars.com/blog/us-travel-tourism-statistics
https://globalnews.ca/news/11080371/canadian-woman-detained-ice-example-immigration-border/
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2028592/us-tourism-suffer-billion-drop-donald-trump
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/european-touris-start-avoiding-the-us-as-unknown-territory](`https`://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/european-touris-start-avoiding-the-us-as-unknown-territory)

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Breaking news: Trump signs executive order making it illegal for touris``` to not visit the USA

**評論 2**:

RIP Florida tourism!

**評論 3**:

I work in a hotel and I can tell you now we had about 30% cancelled booking already here.

**評論 4**:

All displaced hospitality workers will be housed at Mar a Lago.

**評論 5**:

I can fly from Canada to Ireland in August for $650 or go to the US (west coast) for $550. Hmmmmm.

---

## 2. ```
Trump Tells Inner Circle That Musk Will Leave Soon
``` {#2-```
trump-tells-inner-circle-that-musk-will-leav}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是**美國前總統川普與企業家伊隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）之間政治合作關係的調整**。具體重點包括：

1. **馬斯克角色的轉變**：川普向核心圈透露，馬斯克將從現行的「政府合作夥伴、積極支持者及華盛頓政治打手」的角色中退出，轉向更幕後的支持性角色。
2. **雙方共識**：儘管川普對馬斯克及其主導的「政府效率部門」（Department of Government Efficiency）仍持肯定態度，但兩人近期達成共識，認為馬斯克需回歸商業領域。
3. **關係動態**：文章透過匿名消息來源，描述兩人關係的演變，暗示政治與商業利益的權衡可能影響了這一決定。

整體而言，文章聚焦於**權力核心人物合作策略的調整**，並探討其背後可能的政治或個人動機。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpri9n/trump_tells_inner_circle_that_musk_will_leave_soon/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpri9n/trump_tells_inner_circle_that_musk_will_leave_soon/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpri9n/trump_tells_inner_circle_that_musk_will_leave_soon/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpri9n/trump_tells_inner_circle_that_musk_will_leave_soon/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 23:32:03

### 內容

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/02/trump-musk-leaving-political-liability-00265784

> President Donald Trump has told his inner circle, including members of his Cabinet, that Elon Musk will be stepping back in the coming weeks from his current role as governing partner, ubiquitous cheerleader and Washington hatchet man.

> The president remains pleased with Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency initiative, according to three Trump insiders who were granted anonymity to describe the evolving relationship, but both men have decided in recent days that it will soon be time for Musk to return to his businesses and take on a supporting role.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affec``` the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddi```" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

**評論 2**:

All back door codes and servers planted and ready to go?

**評論 3**:

Musk is restricted by his role as a special government employee, which only allows him to work with the government for 130 days.

Im surprised they are following the law on this but Musk does have a day job. He must want to pretend to be going back to doing it.

**評論 4**:

You know the damage has been done, right?

**評論 5**:

Does this have anything to do with Musk dumping money into Wisconsin and having his candidate still lose?

---

## 3. ```
Atlanta Feds GDP estimate -3.7%
``` {#3-```
atlanta-feds-gdp-estimate-3-7-
```}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：  
**亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的「GDPNow」即時經濟預測模型的特點、準確性及其在市場波動時期的重要性**。  

具體要點包括：  
1. **GDPNow模型的即時性與透明度**  
   - 該模型隨經濟數據發佈頻繁更新（有時每週多次），並公開方法論與數據組成，有別於其他按月或季更新的預測。  
   - 被視為即時GDP預測的權威標準，尤其在方向與增長幅度評估上具高準確性。  

2. **與紐約聯儲預測模型的比較**  
   - 紐約聯儲的「Nowcast」為每週更新，適合穩定時期；  
   - GDPNow則在數據波動劇烈時（如後疫情時代或重大衝擊）反應更靈敏，能更快捕捉變化。  

3. **當前經濟環境的應用**  
   - 作者選擇引用GDPNow而非紐約模型，因當前市場處於高度波動期（如近期預測值從+3.9%驟降至-3.7%），需即時性更高的工具。  

4. **對經濟前景的隱憂**  
   - 文末提問「為何經濟預測惡化如此嚴重？」並諷刺調侃「解放日將使人們從金錢中解放」，反映對經濟衰退的擔憂。  

總結：文章聚焦於GDPNow的技術優勢及其在動盪市場中的決策參考價值，同時隱含對經濟急遽放緩的警示。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp901l/atlanta_feds_gdp_estimate_37/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp901l/atlanta_feds_gdp_estimate_37/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp901l/atlanta_feds_gdp_estimate_37/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp901l/atlanta_feds_gdp_estimate_37/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 06:36:06

### 內容

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Atlanta Feds GDP estimate

8 weeks ago it was +3.9%

4 weeks ago it was +2.3%

Last week it was -2.8%

Today it stands at -3.7%

How can we fuck up this bad? Liberation day is tomorrow too. We're going to be liberated from our money.

Edit. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is widely used and respected as a standard for real-time economic forecasting because of a few key reasons. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publicly shares the models methodology, updates, and the componen behind each estimate. Unlike most other forecas (which are updated monthly or quarterly), GDPNow is updated every time new relevant data is released, sometimes multiple times a week. Which is what just happened. It has a solid reputation for accuracy in estimating the direction and magnitude of GDP growth.

Edit 2: Why use Atlanta instead of New York Fed's estimate?

New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Weekly, every Friday

Atlanta Fed GDPNow: updates i estimates throughout the quarter as new economic data are released, up until the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes i "advance estimate" of GDP for that quarter.

One is weekly, and the other is based on even such as economic data. In stable periods, New York Fed's model tends to produce more stable and accurate nowcas. In volatile periods with big data swings (like post-COVID or major shocks), Atlanta Feds GDPNow might pick up changes quicker. This is why I picked the Atlanta and not New York. We're are in a volatile market.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

The US is gonna be liberated from the entire world tmrw.

**評論 2**:

If you fail at 4 casinos, failing this bad should come as no surprise at all.

**評論 3**:

Can a conservative explain to me like Im 5 how this is a good thing?

All I can find is them saying shit like bout time and hard reset and Canada deserves it. Can we get into some fundamentals on any positive aspect of this?

**評論 4**:

Let's remember, socialism is bad. No bailout for farmers. That's what they voted for.

**評論 5**:

Its crazy how all trump had to do was lie and take credit for the good part of bidens economy and it would have worked with the majority of the country. I dont understand this massive self inflicted gunshot wound

I know its a popular theory that hes doing this so his rich friends can swoop in and buy everything but lately i feel like thats giving him too much credit. I think its more likely that hes just stupid and theres no adult in the room to tell him not to, because this administration very obviously is making this up as they go along

---

## 4. ```
The Folksam Group (Sweden) is selling i``` entire shareholding in Tesla
``` {#4-```
the-folksam-group-sweden-is-selling-i```-ent}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：  

**Folksam Group 因特斯拉在工會權利問題上的立場與其投資標準不符，決定出售所有特斯拉股份。**  

具體要點包括：  
1. **撤資原因**：特斯拉對工會權利的態度與 Folksam 的投資標準（基於國際公約和聯合國全球契約）相衝突。  
2. **嘗試無效**：Folksam 曾試圖影響特斯拉改變立場，但未見改善，因此決定撤資。  
3. **官方回應**：Folksam 資產管理與永續發展主管表示，此結果非其所願，但基於原則不得不採取行動。  

簡而言之，文章聚焦於 **企業社會責任（ESG）與投資決策的關聯**，尤其是勞工權益如何影響機構投資者的持股選擇。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpks8j/the_folksam_group_sweden_is_selling_its_entire/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpks8j/the_folksam_group_sweden_is_selling_its_entire/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpks8j/the_folksam_group_sweden_is_selling_its_entire/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpks8j/the_folksam_group_sweden_is_selling_its_entire/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 17:51:29

### 內容

The Folksam Group is selling i``` entire shareholding in Tesla, the insurance company states in a press release.

The reason is Tesla's stance on union righ, which conflic with Folksam's investment criteria.

The insurance giant states that it has tried to influence the electric car company to bring about a change, without resul```.

"Unfortunately, no improvement has been seen and a decision has therefore been made to divest the holding," the Folksam Group writes in the press release.

- This is not the result we had hoped for, says Marcus Blomberg, Head of Asset Management and Sustainability at the Folksam Group.

The Folksam Group's investment criteria are based on international conventions and the UN Global Compact.

https://www.tv4.se/artikel/3itFFt5A7z6wux3VPLPeDL/folksam-saeljer-alla-tesla-aktier

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Makes you wonder what Norway will do with i35mla shares if things continue

https://www.nbim.no/en/investmen/all-investmen/#/2024/investmen```/equities/8392/Tesla%20Inc

**評論 2**:

As someone with long ties to Folksam - about time!

The statement about it being due to unions, I would say, is only the public statement. That issue has been going on for years and there have been a lot better momen``` to exit.

Folksam, like many others, sees the writing on the wall.

**評論 3**:

Using code formatting is bad for the readability of this post. Very bad.

**評論 4**:

It's a small stake but still a signal that Pension funds and other institutional investors are souring on Tesla

Not only because i``` fundamentals are bad

But it has to do with ethics and mostly Elon

Also Tesla refuses to conform to Union bargaining which is the modus operandi on the Swedish labor market. The state does not involve themselves in disputes between unions and corporations unless laws are broken.

Union laws are strong in Sweden. So Tesla has been under an embargo for a year or so from several unions because they refuse to sign a deal with IF Metall - the Industry union. Which has led to Tesla not even getting the registration plates for their cars because another union has put in an embargo on delivering mail to Tesla. Several unions have gone in against Tesla in solidarity with IF Metall

So Tesla Sweden is kinda cooked since IF Metall can keep the strike up for about a hundred years or more.

**評論 5**:

Took them long enough. Fucking opportunis who hold shares in a company run by one of the world's most famous facis. Same with Norway. Don't pretend to be progressive or care about ESG (in i```elf a marketing term, worth exactly zero) but invest in Tesla.

---

## 5. ```
Tesla repor``` 336,000 vehicle deliveries in first quarter
``` {#5-```
tesla-repor```-336-000-vehicle-deliveries-in}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：**特斯拉在2025年第一季度的車輛交付量、生產表現及市場挑戰**，具體涵蓋以下重點：

1. **業績數據與市場預期落差**  
   - 交付量（336,000輛）和生產量（362,000輛）低於分析師預期（約377,590輛），且較2024年同期（交付386,810輛）顯著下滑。
   - Model 3/Y仍是主力車型，但其他車型（如Cybertruck）貢獻有限。

2. **營運與生產調整**  
   - 工廠部分停產以升級生產線，為改款Model Y做準備，但影響當季產能。

3. **市場競爭與聲譽危機**  
   - 面臨電動車市場激烈競爭，歐洲市占率大幅下滑（如德國BEV市占從16%跌至4%）。
   - 馬斯克的政治立場（支持特朗普、削減政府部門、介入歐洲政治）引發抵制與抗議，間接衝擊品牌形象。

4. **財務表現惡化**  
   - 股價單季暴跌36%，市值蒸發4600億美元，反映投資者對公司前景的擔憂。

**總結**：文章聚焦特斯拉在產銷數據、市場競爭、政治爭議與財務表現的多重困境，凸顯其短期營運壓力和長期戰略挑戰。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpo69r/tesla_reports_336000_vehicle_deliveries_in_first/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpo69r/tesla_reports_336000_vehicle_deliveries_in_first/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpo69r/tesla_reports_336000_vehicle_deliveries_in_first/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpo69r/tesla_reports_336000_vehicle_deliveries_in_first/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 21:10:00

### 內容

Teslareported 336,000 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of 2025, two days after the electric vehicle companys stock wrapped up i``` worst quarter since 2022.

Here are the key numbers:

Total deliveries Q1 2025: 336,000
Total production Q1 2025: 362,000

Investors were expecting Tesla to report deliveries of between 360,000 and 370,000 vehicles, according to StreetAccount. Teslas investor relations team sends a company-compiled consensus to select analys```, and said the average estimate was for around 377,590 deliveries. Prediction market company Kalshion Tuesday released a forecast for Tesla deliveries of 352,000.

In the first quarter of 2024, Tesla reported 386,810 deliveries, and production of 433,371 vehicles.

Deliveries are the closest approximation of vehicle sales reported by Tesla but are not precisely defined in the companys shareholder communications.

Tesla doesnt break out sales and production by model or region. However, the company said that it produced 345,454of i``` most popularModel 3 and Model Y carsand delivered 323,800 of them in the three months ending March 31.

The company reported 12,881 deliveries of i other models, including i angular steel Cybertruck.

During the quarter, Tesla faced planned, partial shutdowns in some of i factories that allowed the company to upgrade manufacturing lines to start producing a redesigned version of i popular Model Y SUV.

CEO Elon Musk recently said during anall-handssession with Tesla employees that he expec``` the Model Y to be the best-selling car on Earth again this year.

But Tesla has to contend with an onslaught of EV competition and reputational damage. In the first quarter, the company was hit with waves ofprotes, boycot and some criminal activity that targeted Tesla vehicles and facilities in response to Musks political rhetoric and his work as part ofPresident Donald Trumpssecond administration.

After spending $290 million to help return President Donald Trump to the White House, Musk is leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where hes slashing cos```, eliminating regulations and cutting tens of thousands of federal jobs.

Musk, the worlds wealthiest person, has also involved himself in European politics, promoting the anti-immigrant AfD party in Germany in Februarys elections. Teslas business on the continent is struggling.

Across 15 European countries, Teslas market share declined to 17.9% in the first quarter from 9.3% in the same period a year earlier, according to data tracked by EU-EVs.com. In Germany, Teslas market share in battery electric vehicles plummeted to 4% from about 16% over that stretch.

Tesla sharessank 36%in the first quarter, their steepest drop since the fourth quarter of 2022 and third-biggest decline in the company 15 years on the public market. The drop wiped out $460 billion in market cap.

Source: Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2025 vehicle delivery and production numbers

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Clearly worth 130x FWD PE

**評論 2**:

Every other company would be -30% on this news

**評論 3**:

Doesn't matter, Tesla is not a car company it's a ~~battery~~ ~~tech~~ ~~energy~~ AI robotics company.

**評論 4**:

Believe it or not, calls

**評論 5**:

does deliveries mean deliveries to tesla showroom/dealership or to actual customers?

An approx 13% drop from 2024 to 2025. Does it add up to all the drops across Europe, Canada and China?

---

## 6. ```
Conservative cable channel Newsmax spikes more than 700% in first trading day on NYSE
``` {#6-```
conservative-cable-channel-newsmax-spikes-mo}

這段文字的核心討論主題是：  
**保守派新聞媒體 Newsmax 在政治環境影響下的業務表現與財務動態**，具體包括以下重點：  

1. **收視率與政治關聯**：  
   Newsmax 因川普當選總統及其他共和黨政治人物的崛起而收視率提升，但仍落後於主流保守派媒體 Fox News。  

2. **資本市場動向**：  
   - 透過發行股票成功募資 7,500 萬美元（每股 10 美元）。  
   - 股票在紐約證交所首日交易收盤價達 83.51 美元，顯示市場對其價值的樂觀預期。  

3. **背景暗示**：  
   保守派媒體的發展與政治氣候（如川普政策）存在明顯關聯，同時反映投資者對該類媒體的興趣。  

（註：原文連結因亂碼無法完整辨識，但從上下文可推測內容與 Newsmax 上市及政治影響相關。）

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp83zx/conservative_cable_channel_newsmax_spikes_more/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp83zx/conservative_cable_channel_newsmax_spikes_more/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp83zx/conservative_cable_channel_newsmax_spikes_more/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp83zx/conservative_cable_channel_newsmax_spikes_more/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 05:58:10

### 內容

The conservative TV news outlet has seen i``` ratings rise with the election of President Donald Trump and other prominent Republicans although it still falls behind the dominant Fox News. Newsmax raised $75 million through the sale of 7.5 million class B common shares at a price of $10 a share. The stock closed at $83.51 for the day.

[https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/newsmax-stock-star-trading-on-nyse.html?utm\_source=convertkit&utm\_medium=email&utm\_campaign=Market%20Bulle:%20Marke%20close%20out%20Q1%20in%20the%20red,%20Trump%20to%20unveil%20more%20tariffs,%20OpenAI%20closes%20$40B%20funding%20round%20-%2017124768](`https`://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/newsmax-stock-star-trading-on-nyse.html?utm_source=convertkit&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Market%20Bulle:%20Marke%20close%20out%20Q1%20in%20the%20red,%20Trump%20to%20unveil%20more%20tariffs,%20OpenAI%20closes%20$40B%20funding%20round%20-%2017124768)

### 討論

**評論 1**:

$20B market cap, they did $155m revenue and lost $64m last year this might as well be a meme coin thats about to get the rug pulled.

**評論 2**:

This IPO is just mental. MAGA don't seem to be in on this, over on Truth Social they were caught off-guard and didn't even know it was happening. All the $DJT holders are salty af right now.

$20bn is a completely absurd valuation for $NMAX.

The company makes $171m in revenue, is unprofitable with an increasing $72m loss (losses were $41m the previous year) and has negative shareholder equity.

To put it in perspective:

$NMAX is more than double the valuation of The New York Times ($8bn), a company that makes $2.5bn in revenue and is profitable.

It's worth nearly as much as the Fox Corporation which generates $15.1bn in revenue and $2.4bn in profit.

The one thing I would say though, is that out of the other "MAGA stocks" $NMAX is the strongest, even though it still has shitty fundamentals that don't justify it's valuation.

$RUM for example makes $95m revenue, but doesn't even make gross profit. It literally just burns money, with it's cost of revenue being $138m and an overall loss of $338m.

$DJT unsurprisingly is the worst of the bunch, making a measly $3.6m (less than a busy McDonalds branch), and the company actually spent $6.3m more on marketing in 2024 than they did in 2023...only to make ~$500k less in revenue. Additionally the operational losses appear to be growing, latest was about $186m, up from $58m the previous year.

Wouldn't suprise me to see $NMAX absolutely tank in the coming days/weeks. It's already down 15% to $196/share in after hours trading. It's unclear who's actually buying this, some insiders probably got rich af and are about to unload their bags onto retail.

**評論 3**:

I tried to short but there were no shares available.

**評論 4**:

This is what an unhealthy market looks like.

**評論 5**:

PT Barnum was right.

---

## 7. ```
China Restric``` Companies From Investing in US as Tensions Rise
``` {#7-```
china-restric```-companies-from-investing-in}

**核心討論主題：**  
中國近期限制本土企業對美投資，作為中美貿易緊張升級下的戰略手段，旨在增加談判籌碼並控制資本外流。  

**重點摘要：**  
1. **政策內容**：中國國家發改委（NDRC）暫停審批企業對美投資的新申請，但現有投資（如美債持有）不受影響。  
2. **動機分析**：  
   - **貿易博弈**：回應美國即將宣布的關稅措施（如「對等關稅」），強化談判槓桿。  
   - **資本管控**：遏制資本外流壓力，穩定人民幣匯率。  
3. **影響層面**：  
   - **市場反應**：消息公布後，美國股指期貨與歐洲股市下跌。  
   - **企業不確定性**：中企海外擴張（如避開貿易壁壘的產能轉移）面臨阻礙，案例提及香港長和集團遭中國施壓。  
4. **數據背景**：2023年中國對美投資下降5.2%，佔總對外投資存量僅2.8%，反映雙邊經濟關係收緊。  

**作者觀點**：此舉是中國的「警告性措施」，預示貿易戰可能擴大到投資領域，並可能引發日韓等盟國的連鎖反應（如供應鏈調整）。  

**延伸觀察**：政策短期聚焦美國，但長期可能加劇全球經貿分化，企業需應對地緣政治風險。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpnvpn/china_restricts_companies_from_investing_in_us_as/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpnvpn/china_restricts_companies_from_investing_in_us_as/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpnvpn/china_restricts_companies_from_investing_in_us_as/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpnvpn/china_restricts_companies_from_investing_in_us_as/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 20:55:56

### 內容

>China has taken steps to restrict local companies from investing in the US, according to people familiar with the matter, in a move that could give Beijing more leverage for potentialtradenegotiations with the Trump administration.

>Several branches of Chinas top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for firms that are looking to invest in the US, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues.

>While China has previously placed restrictions on some overseas investmen for reasons linked to concerns about national security and capital outflows, the new measures underscore tensions playing out between the worlds two biggest economies asDonald Trumpramps up tariffs. Chinas outbound investmen into the US totaled $6.9 billion in 2023, according to the latest available figures.

>Theres no sign that existing commitmen by Chinese companies in the US and elsewhere, or Chinas purchases and holdings of financial produc including US Treasuries, would be affected, the people said. Its unclear what prompted the NDRC to halt the processing of applications or how long this suspension might last.

>The NDRC and the Ministry of Commerce, both in charge of initial approvals for companies foreign investment, didnt immediately reply to a request for comment.

>US equity futures dropped to session lows after the Bloomberg report. European stocks also extended their decline.

>On Wednesday, Trump is set to unleash plans for so-called reciprocal tariffs on US partners, which will likely include China. Amemorandumissued by the US president in February told a key government committee to curb Chinese spending on tech, energy and other strategic American sectors.

>China has already been increasing scrutiny of outbound investmen``` by domestic companies after record capital outflows put pressure on the yuan, Bloomberg Newsreportedearlier this year.

>While the latest restriction mostly applies to corporate investment in the US, the move adds uncertainty for firms that are seeking to shift production abroad to bypass the trade barriers and attempt to navigate an intensifying global standoff.

>CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd.shows how difficult the environment can be for companies caught in thecrossfire. The Hong Kong-based conglomerate agreed to sell 43 por```, including two in Panama, to a consortium led byBlackRock Inc.for $19 billion in cash proceeds last month. The deal drew ire from China, which told state-owned firms topauseany new collaboration with businesses linked toLi Ka-shingand his family, Bloomberg News reported last week.

>The latest data from Chinas Ministry of Commerce showed outbound investmen``` into the US slumped 5.2% in 2023 despite an increase of 8.7% into all foreign countries. The cumulative stock of Chinas investment in the US accounted for only 2.8% of the total at the end of 2023.

>Domestic companies planning investment projec``` abroad are required to follow filing and approval procedures that usually involve the Ministry of Commerce, the NDRC and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Link: [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/china-restric-companies-from-investing-in-us-as-tensions-rise](`https`://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/china-restric-companies-from-investing-in-us-as-tensions-rise)

My take: This is a warning shot across the bow from China. It signals that Beijing (their DC) is willing to fight with outbound investment flows as leverage ahead of the inevitable trade negotiations due to tariffs that will be announced later today (at 4 PM Eastern). Additionally, this is a way to control outbound capital (China likes controlling the yuan and dislikes their capital leaving the country).

Is this a good thing for the US? Nope. We may see additional response from Japan/ South Korea due to the agreement they've signed, so by extension we may see Korean/Japanese companies move if the US does anything in response. The ETF for Japan I use is EWJ , the ETF for South Korea I use is EWY.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affec``` the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddi```" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

**評論 2**:

I hate that I like what china been doing recently.

**評論 3**:

> Chinas outbound investmen``` into the US totaled $6.9 billion in 2023, according to the latest available figures

It's a symbolic gesture at best. If the $7bn FDI from China into the US is an annual figure (which is my guess), it would be about 3% of annual FDI of $227bn in 2023.

Link: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/direct-investment-country-and-industry#:~:text=The%20foreign%20direct%20investment%20in,$58.9%20billion%20increase%20from%20Germany.

It would be even less as a % of total FDI if $7bn were to represent the total value of their FDI in the US.

**評論 4**:

Never expected I would say this, but: well done China

At this point I'm not sure if will last till midterm.

**評論 5**:

well, if they are successful, theyll be forced to sell to trumps buddies anyways.. so whats the point

---

## 8. ```
Why is TSLA up 5% today?
``` {#8-```
why-is-tsla-up-5-today-
```}

這段討論的核心主題是：**特斯拉（TSLA）股價在汽車銷量下滑和馬斯克支持的候選人落選的負面消息下仍然上漲的原因探討**。  

具體要點包括：  
1. **負面事件**：  
   - 特斯拉季度汽車銷量同比下降（33.6萬輛 vs 去年同期38.6萬輛）。  
   - 馬斯克支持的威斯康辛州候選人選舉失利。  
2. **市場反應的矛盾**：  
   - 儘管負面消息，股價卻上漲，引發疑問。  
3. **可能原因推測**：  
   - 市場做市商（market makers）的對沖操作。  
   - 其他未明確提及的因素（如市場情緒、長期預期等）。  

整體而言，討論聚焦於「股價與基本面消息背離」的現象及其潛在原因。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpt6p3/why_is_tsla_up_5_today/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpt6p3/why_is_tsla_up_5_today/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpt6p3/why_is_tsla_up_5_today/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpt6p3/why_is_tsla_up_5_today/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-03 00:40:26

### 內容

TSLA car sales came down today(336k vs 386k from last yr) and Musks supported candidate lost in Wisconsin.

I``` baffling to see stock still up today, is it because of market makers hedging or something else?

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Cause everyone I know went short at ~235 lol

**評論 2**:

Take your pick:

Meme stock

Elon maybe stepping away from Trump administration

Big money knew everyone went short and is taking the other side of the trade

**評論 3**:

The real reason is because reddit bought pu```

**評論 4**:

Because it's tesla? stop putting logic into meme stocks.

**評論 5**:

Maybe because there are rumors that Musk might be stepping away from DOGE and will be less involved with the government in the coming weeks.

---

## 9. ```
NYT: Amazon has submitted a last-minute bid to acquire TikTok ahead of Saturday's deadline
``` {#9-```
nyt-amazon-has-submitted-a-last-minute-bid-t}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是 **亞馬遜（Amazon）在最後關頭提出收購TikTok的競標**，以及圍繞TikTok所有權問題在美國引發的政治與商業角力。具體重點包括：

1. **亞馬遜的收購行動**：  
   - 亞馬遜在美國政府設定的4月截止期限前提出全面收購TikTok的提案，但其他談判方對此並不認真看待。  
   - 此舉凸顯華府在TikTok所有權問題上的最後一刻博弈。

2. **美國政府的壓力與法律爭議**：  
   - 美國兩黨基於國家安全疑慮，已通過法律要求TikTok脫離其中國母公司（字節跳動），否則將面臨禁令。  
   - 儘管最高法院一致支持該法律，川普總統仍推遲執行期限至週六（文章發佈時迫近的期限）。

3. **潛在交易結構與其他競標者**：  
   - 討論中的替代方案可能引入美國投資者（如甲骨文、黑石集團），避免直接出售，但尚不清楚是否符合法律要求。  
   - 除亞馬遜外，其他企業（如微軟、沃爾瑪）和富豪（如Frank McCourt）也曾表達收購興趣。

4. **亞馬遜與TikTok的商業關聯**：  
   - TikTok已成為美國電商重要平台（1.7億用戶），許多網紅透過推薦商品導流至亞馬遜，形成合作關係。  
   - 亞馬遜過去曾嘗試開發類似TikTok的功能（Inspire），但未成功。

**總結**：文章聚焦於亞馬遜競標TikTok的突發動向，並延伸探討美國政府對TikTok的監管壓力、潛在交易模式，以及科技巨頭如何爭奪這一社交媒體平台的戰略價值。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpso0b/nyt_amazon_has_submitted_a_lastminute_bid_to/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpso0b/nyt_amazon_has_submitted_a_lastminute_bid_to/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpso0b/nyt_amazon_has_submitted_a_lastminute_bid_to/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpso0b/nyt_amazon_has_submitted_a_lastminute_bid_to/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-03 00:19:32

### 內容

Amazon has put in a last-minute bid to acquire all of TikTok, the popular video app, as it approaches an April deadline to be separated from i``` Chinese owner or face a ban in the United States, according to three people familiar with the bid.

Various parties who have been involved in the talks do not appear to be taking Amazons bid seriously, the people said. The bid came via an offer letter addressed to Vice President JD Vance and Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, according to a person briefed on the matter.

Amazons bid highligh``` the 11th-hour maneuvering in Washington over TikToks ownership. Policymakers in both parties have expressed deep national security concerns over the apps Chinese ownership, and passed a law last year to force a sale of TikTok that was set to take effect in January.

President Trump, who has pledged repeatedly to save the app despite the national security concerns, delayed the enforcement of that law until Saturday, even after it was unanimously upheld by the Supreme Court.

Amazon declined to comment. TikTok didnt immediately respond to a request for comment.

Mr. Trump isslated to meetwith top White House officials Wednesday to discuss TikToks fate. People familiar with the talks have outlined a potential deal that could involve bringing on a number of new U.S. investors, including Oracle, the technology giant, andBlackstone, the private equity firm, while sidestepping a formal sale. But it isnt clear that such a structure would satisfy the conditions of the federal law.

Amazon has some existing ties to TikTok. The video app, which coun 170 million users in the United States, has become a major hub of retail shopping, with influencers recommending produc to viewers. While the company has i own e-commerce operation known as TikTok Shop, many influencers encourage people to buy produc on Amazon, which gives the influencers a cut of the transactions. It has also provided sometechnical infrastructure.

Amazon had previously tried to make a TikTok clone of sor, called Inspire, inside i own app. Internally, it was a high-profile initiative, but was widely seen as unsuccessful at attracting shoppers. The company removed it from the app this year.

Amazon isnt the first retailer to express interest in the app. In 2020, when TikTok was first pressured to sell to American owners,Microsoft and Walmartmade a bid for the company.

But Amazon would be the most high-profile bidder for the company, which has also attracted interest from the billionaire Frank McCourt as well as Jesse Tinsley, the founder of the payroll firm Employer.com.

Source:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/02/business/media/amazon-tiktok-bid.html

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Considering they own Twitch and have the ability to power TT with AWS and monetize it with e-commerce and advertisingthis actually could make sense.

**評論 2**:

TikToks U.S. operations could be worth as much as $50 billion if ByteDance decides to sell

Whoever does decide to buy TikTok it wont be cheap.

**評論 3**:

170m in the US is crazy. Disgusting.

**評論 4**:

90% of what they sell is Chinese plastic anyway, so why not buy TikTok.

**評論 5**:

I think it's a good deal, rising e-commerce in tiktok will sync well with Amazon

---

## 10. ```
Tesla Hidey Hole (Richmond, VA)- Don't believe the numbers tomorrow but the ERDF is real.
``` {#10-```
tesla-hidey-hole-richmond-va-don-t-believe-}

這篇文章的核心討論主題可以總結為以下幾點：

1. **對特斯拉（Tesla）及其CEO馬斯克（Elon Musk）的批判性分析**：  
   - 作者質疑特斯拉的財務和銷售數據，指出其可能存在誇大交付數字的行為（例如將未售出的車輛隱藏在停車場以計入「交付」數據）。  
   - 批評特斯拉的產品質量問題（如Cybertruck召回、車輛安全問題）以及馬斯克的爭議行為（如政治立場、藥物使用、管理風格等）。

2. **「馬斯克現實扭曲力場」（ERDF, Elon Reality Distortion Field）的探討**：  
   - 作者提出「ERDF」概念，形容馬斯克透過炒作未來技術（如自動駕駛、機器人、AI）來掩蓋特斯拉核心業務（汽車銷售）的困境，並維持公司股價。  
   - 指出即使特斯拉面臨負面新聞（如交付未達預期、產品缺陷），ERDF仍能吸引投資者（尤其是散戶）持續追捧股票。

3. **特斯拉股價的市場動態與風險**：  
   - 分析散戶投資者（如「Fox News Dads」）和機構投資者對特斯拉股票的影響，並質疑其估值合理性（如Cathie Wood的極端樂觀預測）。  
   - 討論馬斯克個人財務風險（如股票質押貸款）及潛在的市場崩潰可能性。

4. **對馬斯克企業內部問題的觀察**：  
   - 指出高層主管離職（如CFO Zachary Kirkhorn）、大規模裁員及員工士氣問題，認為這些「內部人士」的動向可能是特斯拉未來危機的關鍵。

5. **呼籲理性行動**：  
   - 文章開頭警告讀者不要採取極端行為（如破壞特斯拉車輛），強調這類行動無效且可能適得其反，反而應透過市場機制（如抵制購買）來表達不滿。

**核心結論**：  
作者認為特斯拉的營運與股價高度依賴馬斯克的個人魅力和炒作能力（ERDF），而非實際業務表現，但這種模式可能因內部人才流失或市場信心崩潰而瓦解。文章結合批判性分析、陰謀論和市場觀察，旨在揭露特斯拉潛在的風險與矛盾。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpicww/tesla_hidey_hole_richmond_va_dont_believe_the/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpicww/tesla_hidey_hole_richmond_va_dont_believe_the/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpicww/tesla_hidey_hole_richmond_va_dont_believe_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpicww/tesla_hidey_hole_richmond_va_dont_believe_the/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 14:47:15

### 內容

Before I jump into the stock related stuff, as an old, I feel it is important to preface this with a little cautionary advice. Here is my three poin``` of "don't be stupid":

I know Richmond has a storied history of burning shit going all the way back to the Civil War- but don't burn any Teslas. It's not worth it. And it's stupid. Furthermore, you are putting first responders at risk. You will also likely get caught. At least here in Virginia, there are cameras everywhere and Tesla's themselves will record you. It's just not worth throwing your life away no matter how mad you might be. Before you get labeled a domestic terrorist and thrown in an El Salvadorian prison, read some Aleksandr Solzheni```yn and get some perspective. He wrote from a Russian gulag after sharing his negative opinion of Stalin. We are currently on Reddit and nobody is going to jail for it.
Don't harass individual Tesla owners. They didn't do anything to deserve it and most likely hate what is happening as well. I know some of them. It is unreasonable to ask them to dump their daily driver at a huge loss because Elon decided to make himself into a human lighting rod.
I deliberately waited for the "Tesla Takedown" to be over before making this post so nobody would get any bright ideas. What you think is making a difference is likely to have the opposite effect from what you are hoping for. The people trying to stick it to Trump just got him more support from billionaires after he was convicted and if you didn't notice, $TSLA started deep in the red yesterday after the Tesla Takedown over the weekend and rallied way back and finished considerably up today. None of that moved the needle in any direction but up. Furthermore, if you burn or vandalize a Tesla, the insurance company will pay for it and just jack up all of our rates in turn. If any destroyed cars are still owned by Tesla, they will just use accounting methods to write it off. And that is one less car they don't have to sell at a time when they aren't selling many, which is the ultimate point of this post and makes a nice segue.

If you are mad about what Elon Musk is doing, or just want to make money on your $TSLA pu (like me- position disclosed), what sends a stronger message? A few burnt up Teslas or entire parking lo full of them because nobody wan to buy them? In my opinion, as well as [others with pu](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/nick-denton-interview-thiel-musk) on Tesla and think Elon has lost it, it is the latter. Speaking of which... I found one such parking lot!

First, check out the few pictures I took of the local Tesla dealership here in Richmond (just ou```ide the city). Their lot is clearly over capacity but nothing jaw dropping. There are a few dozen vehicles on the street and in a neighboring parking lot. After I shared these with a few friends, one of them told me that there were vehicle transporters unloading new Teslas near his work, which is a few miles away from the dealership and in an area of office buildings that have nothing to do with Tesla. I checked it out and there are a lot of them stuffed in the back of the lot. It's hard to see because I took the pictures at night and the cars are spread out but there are easily over 20 Cybertrucks and probably somewhere near 50 vehicles in total.

Next door: https://imgur.com/AxhLj6H

On the street: https://imgur.com/krERZyr

Hidey Hole-1: https://imgur.com/4MQsMlv

Hidey Hole-2: https://imgur.com/d6xLmFk

Hidey Hole-3: https://imgur.com/Ay3oTZh

Obviously, my local dealer isn't selling enough cars to keep up with their deliveries (no surprise to anyone). But the big question I have is: Are these vehicles considered "delivered"? Tomorrow Tesla repor``` how many vehicles they have "delivered" (not the same as sold). And if you haven't been paying attention as of late, Tesla has had some questionable practices going on in Canada with their sales and some possible questions raised about their accounting methods with the $1.4 billion discrepancy in their books. Going back a little further, there was a whistleblower that reported Tesla deliberately messes with their delivery numbers to make it appear as if they are selling more new cars than they really are.

Point being, no matter what is reported tomorrow, I am not going to believe the numbers Tesla provides. If there are new Teslas being shoved into an obscure parking lot in my city, it has to be happening elsewhere. At some point, I suspect the vehicle overflow will get noticed in other places too. Has anyone else found a Tesla hidey hole?

Most importantly, even if the number suck tomorrow, I doubt it will make that much of a difference in the stock price because of the ERDF. What is the ERDF you ask? It is the "Elon Reality Distortion Field" (ERDF). And this incredibly powerful field effect is really all that matters when it comes to anything "Elon". It's real. And people should acknowledge it as such or risk their own peril. Nothing logical or sane applies to Elon Musk and it never has.

Edit/Update: Despite missing on deliveries, $TSLA is not really down that much. Everything is being affected from the tariff news so any impact isn't really noticeable. And the sales miss is being explained away by the Model Y refresh, as widely expected and foretold by just about every media outlet covering Tesla. No surprises in the ERDF holding $TSLA strong despite the bad news.

If any other business leader cobbled together their cars with par from the [hardware store](`https`://futurism.com/the-byte/tesla-model-y-wooden-trim), cars that [kill more people than any other brand](`https`://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a62919131/tesla-has-highest-fatal-accident-rate-of-all-auto-brands-study/), launched the only new (and really ugly) car in forever that was [held together with glue that doesn't last ouide](https://apnews.com/article/cybertruck-recall-tesla-elon-musk-nha-8c517e21aa1119d74b9db39f6aca01b7) and needed to be fully recalled, had your main competitor (BYD) that makes key componen for your cars overtake you, had your own brother selling off [massive amoun of your stock](`https`://www.newsweek.com/elon-musks-brother-sells-27-million-worth-tesla-stock-2046659#:~:text=Elon%20Musk's%20brother%20Kimball%20Musk,of%20stock%20in%20the%20company), [smoked weed on the Joe Rogan Show](`https`://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/17/technology/elon-musk-spacex-national-security-reporting.html) and put huge government contrac at risk doing so, had repor of [massive drug use in the WSJ](`https`://www.wsj.com/business/elon-musk-illegal-drugs-e826a9e1), had repor of worry about their mental well-being coming out, became the most indebted CEO in history, spread themselves out over six massive and diverse companies, then jumped into politics on [six continen](`https`://www.nbcnews.com/tech/elon-musk/elon-musk-boosting-far-right-politics-globe-rcna189505) to promote views that fly in the face of their main customer base, spent a quarter-billion dollars in donations to get themselves installed as one of the most powerful unelected people in the US government while throwing out Nazi salutes, supporting [Hitler and Stalin on social media](`https`://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2025/03/13/musk-retwee-hitler-didnt-murder-millions-message-amid-ongoing-nazi-controversy/) while talking shit to American allies and world leaders, and was having their stores and produc``` literally being set on fire all over the globe, they would be toast (*pun intended and this list of fuckery is not comprehensive). But not Elon. In fact, just the opposite occurred. He became, and remains to be, the richest man on Earth. This displays the tremendous power of the ERDF- It is nothing like the world has ever seen. Even more powerful than Jewish Space Lasers.

The ERDF is by far and away Elon's greatest invention and achievement. If there are two things Elon should get tremendous credit for, it is knowing when to invest in the right things and building hype around them. The guy is a six-dimensional hype machine from outer space with uncanny prescience. From PayPal to SpaceX, he saw where future opportunity was being underinvested in and took it over. When it comes to Tesla, he even knew when to make it "not a car company". Using the power of the ERDF, he made it an AI, self-driving vehicle, taxi, and humanoid robot company just in the nick of time before sales of their actual product fell off a cliff. This company is now known as "Tessler". Now, it doesn't matter if they sell any cars at all. Elon is using the ERDF to sell the future and even control the presidency. And it's working. It sounds crazy as hell but we are all watching this happen in real life.

Amazingly, the ERDF has allowed Elon to stall indefinitely on all promises of delivering the future and show absolutely no meaningful resul for over a half-decade. Nor is Tesla a first mover in any of their new initiatives. Waymo (Google) has already launched self-driving taxis that are available using Uber and even in buzzing around in Austin Texas, where Tesla is headquartered. The idea of humanoid robo has been around forever. And one behemoth of a car company already developed one. But that happened over a quarter century ago. The car company was Honda and the robot was called ASIMO. And nobody cared. They discontinued it in 2018. Elon's "Optimus" has only been seen to do preprogrammed demos that look like Boston Dynamics routines from the early 2000's (nobody cares about them either). They have also been spotted shuffling around like Joe Biden. Neither the Robotaxi or Optimus robot are anywhere close to being released. And I have strong doub as to what utility, if any, the Optimus robot will have for anybody. All of this seems to be a distraction created by the ERDF to draw attention away from the fact that Tesla still hasn't achieved "full" self-driving (and [ignored LIDAR sensors](`https`://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/17/lidar-vs-cameras-a-giant-fail-for-tesla/)). I am expecting Elon to come out with a "Fred Flintone" sedan next, with no floor that you power with your feet, and telling everyone that it will be the future of travel. If Elon says it, then it "Musk" be true (the guy has a name that just keeps on giving).

With no first-mover advantage in the driverless taxi space, being behind tech giant Google there, and reviving an old failed sci-fi robot idea from their much larger and more established competitor in Honda, you would think Tesla would get graded down for unoriginality. But nope. The ERDF kicks in yet again and most analys``` are bullish and astonishingly, Cathy Wood, seemingly most affected by the ERDF (and other things that make people stupid), thinks Tesla stock is going to reach an astounding $2,600 in five short years! That's about 10x more valuable than it is today, giving Tesla a market cap somewhere around $8.5 trillion dollars. That would make Tesla more valuable than all the other major auto manufacturers, Uber, Lyft, Google, Amazon, and Nvidia, combined in today's market (with a trillion to spare). Does that sound realistic? You can call me a skeptic of Cathy Wood...

Again, make no mistake, the ERDF is real. And if we are talking straight stock price, it matters. It might be the only thing that matters. Love him or hate him, it seems that Elon and his ERDF manufactured the most successful ad campaign in history right on the lawn of the White House. But it wasn't for the cars. It was for the stock. All the new people getting sucked into the ERDF because of Elon's new found bromance with Trump have no idea of what has been happening with Elon prior to his involvement in politics. And they don't care. They just know him as "Tech Support" guy and Trump's new ally. They love Trump and there is no shortage of them. They might be willing to wait another 5-years for Cathy's insane prediction to come true, not knowing everyone else had already been waiting for 5-years before them. Fresh meat so-to-speak. Tesla's 10-day average volume is over 138 million shares. And most of this is retail traders going bonkers for Tesla and Elon. It is likely that Elon has masterfully used his ERDF to transition retail stock holders from younger, tech savvy and/or environmentally conscious investors to straight up Fox News Dads in less than one quarter.

While it has already been noted on this sub that institutional investors are likely pumping $TSLA to orchestrate a soft landing for themselves (on the backs of retail investors), I don't think they can exit too quickly without causing a complete fiasco. They only have to report 30-days after each quarter ends and they trade in dark pools. So, we plebeians won't know what the big institutional holders are doing until after they have done it (unless they report sooner). And if any one big institutional investor dumps their position fast enough to spook the market, there will certainly be consequences. Both political and financial. The finances between Elon, his many ventures, and his personal loans must be a complete nightmare of both complexity and scale. While in theory Elon could be "margin called" for his loans that have Tesla stock put up as collateral for, I am not so sure it would happen even if the stock drops significantly. The banks just went through a crisis of confidence with the whole Silicon Valley Bank collapse. If something triggered Elon's house of cards to collapse, it could have larger implications for his lenders and they might take a lot of heat for it. And the banks certainly don't want to invite in more oversight. They might just eat the loss and hold the shares in hopes they eventually regain their value. For that reason alone, I think the chances of Elon getting margin called are slim. But I would definitely be keeping an eye on the institutional holders once they report at the end of this month to see if there are any notable changes.

Edit/Update: A few hours after posting this, it was reported that Swedish firm Folksam closed their entire position in Tesla. While not nearly as big as other institutional holders, it was still about $160M worth of stock. That's not chump change. (Mods: Sorry for originally using a Seeking Alpha article in the link- I didn't know they were blacklisted).

To end this manifesto post, and give the shor a little glimmer of hope, I offer one possibility that has not really been talked about all that much. Despite the massive power of the ERDF, some people do indeed escape it. And despite all the hype around AI, robo, and automation, Elon's companies are still run by the most unpredictable machines on the planet- humans. Tesla's long time CFO and potential successor for Elon, Zachary Kirkhorn, left suddenly in the summer of 2023. Four more of Elon's top executives and direct repor left in [short order in 2024](`https`://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-loses-4-top-executives-ahead-of-robotaxi-event-2024-10). Baglino sold off his [$180 million in shares](`https`://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/former-tesla-svp-drew-baglino-is-selling-181point5-million-worth-of-stock.html) when he left. Not much of a vote of confidence there. And Tesla as a whole recently [fired a massive number of employees](`https`://www.inc.com/jason-aten/tesla-started-laying-off-14000-employees-it-couldnt-have-gone-worse.html). From the repor, Elon seemingly did it in the same smug and indifferent manner in which he fired people at Twitter and is currently doing in the federal government.

Ultimately, if people become disenfranchised and are no longer willing to do Elon's bidding, his enterprises will fail. And there is only so much you can pay people to motivate them before you lose profitability. To make a Star Wars analogy, the only way I see to bring down the ERDF that protec``` and surrounds Elon's seemingly unstoppable Death Star, is if people on the inside of his operations lose faith in him and get tired of his bullshit. All the people around Elon: His loyal followers on X and even president Trump to some extent, don't do anything for him but build his ego and amplify the strength of the ERDF. But none of them know how to design and build cars or launch space shuttles. That's a very small group of very intelligent people that cannot be replaced as easily as retail investors. It's the smart people on the inside that make all of Elon's visions come into reality. In the end, I think the human element might be Elon's undoing.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Aint no one got time to read all this. Im happy for you or sad to hear that whichever it is. Good luck in your future endeavors.

**評論 2**:

Tldr: The post exposes Teslas alleged practice of hiding unsold vehicles in remote parking lo while warning against destructive protes, arguing that despite mounting problems, Elon Musks Reality Distortion Field maintains the companys high valuation until key talent eventually abandons ship.

**評論 3**:

If you actively desire a company to fail, you should not be short it. Being in your feelings about a stock before you even have the trade on is a recipe for failure.

**評論 4**:

Damn thats a long post.

Anyhow, F Elon and Tesla.

**評論 5**:

Yes, seen a mall parking lot near me with a few back rows filled with unsold ```la. Im sure op is right and this is a manipulative game by the manipulator in chief

---

## 11. ```
Trump Media shares drop after warning the presidents trust and other insiders could sell stock
``` {#11-```
trump-media-shares-drop-after-warning-the-p}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：**特朗普媒體公司（Trump Media）股價因潛在的大規模內部股東（包括特朗普信託）股票出售計劃而下跌，並引發市場對其財務狀況和未來前景的擔憂**。具體重點如下：

1. **股價下跌原因**：  
   - 公司披露可能出售大量股票（包括IPO相關的840萬股普通股，以及內部人士與大股東持有的1.34億股），導致股價單日下跌約6%。  
   - 特朗普信託持有的1.14億股可能被出售，加劇市場疑慮。

2. **公司澄清與市場反應**：  
   - 公司聲明文件僅為「例行程序」（將去年已註冊的股票轉為S-3表格），並非計劃出售，但市場仍擔憂流動性風險。  
   - 潛在出售的股票總量高於公開流通股的129.2%，可能進一步壓低股價。

3. **財務與業務挑戰**：  
   - 公司營收薄弱（2024年收入不足400萬美元，淨虧損4.01億美元），股價卻因投機性交易維持高估值（特朗普信託持股名義價值逾20億美元）。  
   - 計劃拓展金融服務，但未見具體成效。

4. **內部人士利益衝突**：  
   - 文件警告內部股東可能透過低價購股獲利，但散戶投資者恐因股價下跌受損，凸顯公司治理風險。

5. **長期波動性**：  
   - 自去年借殼上市後，股價已從高點下跌70%，反映市場對其商業模式可持續性的質疑。

總結：文章聚焦於特朗普媒體的股價波動、內部股權變動風險，以及其財務表現與市場估值之間的巨大落差，核心問題在於投資者對公司基本面與內部人士動向的擔憂。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jprpc9/trump_media_shares_drop_after_warning_the/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jprpc9/trump_media_shares_drop_after_warning_the/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jprpc9/trump_media_shares_drop_after_warning_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jprpc9/trump_media_shares_drop_after_warning_the/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 23:40:05

### 內容

Trump Medias stock tumbled on Wednesday after the company disclosed in a securities filing the possibility of significant stock sales, including by insider shareholders such as the presidents trust.

The parent company of Truth Social said in afilingdated April 1 that the company could soon sell roughly 8.4 million shares of common stock related to existing warran``` issued during the IPO. And the company said insiders and major stakeholders could also sell up to about 134 million shares from time to time.

That includes the more than 114 million shares held by the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust.

The stock was down about 6% in morning trading.

President Donald Trump has previously said he does not plan tosell his stakein the company. His son Donald Trump Jr. is in charge of the revocable trust.

The sale of the Resale Securities being offered pursuant to this prospectus, or the perception that these sales could occur, could result in a significant decline in the public trading price of our Common Stock, the prospectus warned.

The company said the total shares available for resale amounted to 129.2% of the companys public float of shares, which is a measure of the amount of stock currently available for trade.

In a statement, the company said the filing does not indicate that insider sales are planned.

****Legacy media outle are spreading a fake story suggesting that a TMTG filing today is paving the way for the Trump trust to sell i shares in TMTG. To be clear, these shares were already registered last June on an S-1 form, and today TMTG submitted a routine filing that re-registers them on an S-3 form in order to keep the Companys filings effective. In fact, there currently is no open window for any affiliate to sell shares, the statement said.

Trump Media stock has been highly volatile since it went public through a combination with a special purpose acquisition company last year. The stock is down about 70% from i``` post-merger highs.

Still, the shares are worth a lot of value on paper, especially relative to the companys meager revenue. Shares were trading at around $19 per share on Wednesday morning, putting the notional value of the trusts position alone at more than $2 billion.

The company warned in the filing that insiders could profit from a sale of stock even if doing so drives down the price.

Selling Securityholders may still experience a positive rate of return on the shares of Common Stock purchased by them due to the lower price per share at which such shares of Common Stock were purchased as referenced above, but public stockholders may not experience a similar rate of return on the Common Stock they purchased if there is such a decline in price and due to differences in the purchase prices and the current market price, the prospectus said.

The underlying business of Trump Media is much smaller than other public social media companies. The firm reported less than $4 million in total sales in 2024, with a net loss of about $401 million. The company said earlier this year it plans toexpand into financial services.

Source: Trump Media shares drop after warning the president's trust and other insiders could sell stock

### 討論

**評論 1**:

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affec``` the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddi```" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

**評論 2**:

Smells like a fresh pile-o-shite

**評論 3**:

Do you expect me to believe that Trump might do a financial rug pull in order to extract $2B from a hilariously unprofitable sham?

**評論 4**:

He's about to sell around 142 million shares, which equates to around $2.3 billion and there are people still defending him that this isn't a rug pull??

**評論 5**:

News: This extremely obvious sham is clearly signally i``` intention to rugpull.

Market: Down 6% best I can do.

---

## 12. ```
Though``` on gene editing stocks? Getting smoked
``` {#12-```
though```-on-gene-editing-stocks-getting-sm}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：  
**基因編輯生物科技股（如 $CRSP、$BEAM、$NTLA）近期因政治因素（如 RFK Jr. 的言論與政府官員變動）導致股價暴跌，是否已過度反映負面情緒而出現投資機會？**  

具體要點包括：  
1. **股價暴跌原因**：政治不確定性（如 RFK Jr. 和聯邦政府相關人士的影響）被視為主要因素。  
2. **產業潛力**：儘管短期波動，基因編輯技術仍被認為是極具創新性且長期前景看好的領域。  
3. **投資爭議**：當前股價是否已反映「破產風險」而超跌，或是在政治環境（如 RFK 和 Trump 的潛在影響）下已無投資價值？  
4. **策略提問**：是否適合「抄底」（bottom fishing）這些被低估的股票？  

整體圍繞「政治風險與基因編輯板塊投資機會的權衡」展開討論。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp9hbw/thoughts_on_gene_editing_stocks_getting_smoked/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp9hbw/thoughts_on_gene_editing_stocks_getting_smoked/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp9hbw/thoughts_on_gene_editing_stocks_getting_smoked/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp9hbw/thoughts_on_gene_editing_stocks_getting_smoked/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 06:57:26

### 內容

Stocks such as $CRSP, $BEAM, $NTLA, just to name a few, have been getting absolutely destroyed, partially due to RFK jr. and I think another important member within the federal government related to bio recently stepped down.

These are starting to look like they are getting priced for bankruptcy, and is arguably one of the most innovative tech in the sector to this day with great longer term promise.

Are these a lost cause under RFK and Trump? Or could they be worth bottom fishing

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Welcome to r/stocks!

For stock recommendations please see our portfolio sticky, sort by hot, it's the first sticky, or see past portfolio stickies here.

For beginner advice, brokerage info, book recommendations, even advanced topics and more, please read our Wiki here.

If you're wondering why a stock moved a certain way, check out Finviz which aggregates the most news for almost every stock, but also see Reuters, and even Yahoo Finance.

Also include some due diligence to this post or it may be removed if it's low effort.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

**評論 2**:

They have been crap way before Trump. The only reason the price went up so high was due to QE during Covid.

**評論 3**:

As someone in the field;

The #s of patien``` are too low for the low hanging fruit.

The regulatory hurdles are tremendous.

The cos``` are too high.

Investors got sold a story of hope and greed, and bought in hard. Be more cynical. When you have to trust the federal government to change i``` mind in order for your business/investment to be profitable, you're probably going to have a hard time.

**評論 4**:

Just because gene editing is the future doesn't mean those stocks are.

for example, CRSP is deeply cash flow negative and issues hundreds of millions in stock based compensation. it's a nonprofit designed to move investors' money to engineers who couldn't hack it at pfizer.

scans to me even if they discover the secret to immortality they're going to dump as much equity into their own pocke as they can before selling out to AstraZeneca or whoever. In that sense they're like shitty lotto ticke.

**評論 5**:

These companies are capital intensive, pre profit and need favourable govt policy. So - when the market turns negative, they will bleed hard. If you want a position, just be ready for a volatile, long-term ride.

---

## 13. ```
Wait a second. Does this look concerning.
``` {#13-```
wait-a-second-does-this-look-concerning-
``}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：**市場和金融機構對美國經濟衰退風險的預測上升**。  

重點包括：  
1. **市場預期變化**：如Polymarket等平台顯示，美國2025年經濟衰退的機率在兩週內從23%升至44%，反映投資者擔憂加劇。  
2. **機構調整預測**：高盛等金融機構調高未來12個月衰退機率（從20%升至35%），顯示對經濟條件的悲觀評估。  

整體而言，文章聚焦於近期經濟不確定性升溫，導致市場和專業機構對衰退可能性的重新評估。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpttjo/wait_a_second_does_this_look_concerning/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpttjo/wait_a_second_does_this_look_concerning/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpttjo/wait_a_second_does_this_look_concerning/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpttjo/wait_a_second_does_this_look_concerning/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-03 01:06:02

### 內容

https://ibb.co/Wv2bD8GZ

Marke``` have recently indicated a 44% chance of a U.S.recession in 2025. Specifically, platforms like Polymarket have shown an increase in recession odds from 23% to 44% over the past two weeks, reflecting growing concerns among investors

Additionally, major financial institutions have adjusted their recession forecas``` in light of current economic conditions. For instance, Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 35%, up from a previous estimate of 20%.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Wait till we get a partial Treasury default on the debt held by countries that Trump doesn't like!

**評論 2**:

polymarket aka degenerate gamblers

**評論 3**:

Wait until tomorrow. The tariffs get announced at close and then the bloodbath will be tomorrow. Then in a few months the confirmation of when the recession first started. My guess is second week of February

**評論 4**:

So much winning

**評論 5**:

I remember when reddit would vehemently fight anything Goldman Sachs said because the thought was that they did not care about retail investors. But apparently now Goldman Sachs does care about retail investors?

---

## 14. ```
Rivian pos``` sharp fall in quarterly deliveries as soft demand weighs
``` {#14-```
rivian-pos```-sharp-fall-in-quarterly-deliv}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：**電動車製造商Rivian面臨需求疲軟與外部挑戰，導致季度交車量大幅下滑，並分析行業整體困境**。  

具體要點包括：  
1. **Rivian交車量下滑**：第一季交車量同比下降36%，反映市場需求疲軟，股價隨之下跌。  
2. **行業性需求困境**：消費者因經濟與政治不確定性，轉向更便宜的混合動力或燃油車，使電動車產業整體受挫。  
3. **外部壓力因素**：  
   - **關稅政策**：美國總統川普的關稅可能推高汽車價格，進一步抑制需求，且Rivian因供應鏈布局（墨西哥、加拿大）面臨成本上升。  
   - **競爭劣勢**：相較於特斯拉等大廠，Rivian的利潤受關稅衝擊更明顯。  
4. **對比同業表現**：特斯拉同期銷售亦下滑13%，顯示行業普遍面臨挑戰，但Rivian交車量仍略高於分析師預期。  
5. **長期展望**：分析師認為電動車長期趨勢不變，但短期需克服需求與成本問題。  

總結：文章聚焦於Rivian及電動車產業在需求放緩、政策不確定性與供應鏈壓力下的短期困境，並提及企業的應對與市場預期。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jps3gk/rivian_posts_sharp_fall_in_quarterly_deliveries/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jps3gk/rivian_posts_sharp_fall_in_quarterly_deliveries/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jps3gk/rivian_posts_sharp_fall_in_quarterly_deliveries/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jps3gk/rivian_posts_sharp_fall_in_quarterly_deliveries/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 23:56:32

### 內容

(Reuters) - Rivian reported a 36% decline in first-quarter deliveries on Wednesday, as the electric-vehicle maker grapples with weak demand, sending i``` shares down nearly 6%.

EV makers have been battling tough demand as consumers opt for cheaper hybrid and gas-powered vehicles in an uncertain economic and political environment.

"I would say the sector at the moment is out of favor. Over the medium to long term, EVs are still inevitable, and so it's just going to take some time for these companies to continue to ramp up," said Andres Sheppard, senior equity analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Rivian Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough had said in February vehicle deliveries would be lower this year due to soft demand, partially because of the impact of fires in Los Angeles.

Demand could be further pressured as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies are expected to accelerate inflation and increase prices of automobiles, making consumers wary of committing to big purchases.

Sheppard said Rivian's margins would be affected by tariffs, and it could face a larger hit from the duties as opposed to bigger players such as Tesla.

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe had said earlier this year the company expec higher cos from tariffs on Mexico and Canada as it has a supply chain footprint in these countries.

The company delivered 8,640 vehicles in the quarter ended March 31, down from 13,588 a year earlier. But the deliveries exceeded analys```' estimate of 8,200, according to Visible Alpha.

Tesla reported a 13% slump in quarterly sales, i``` weakest performance in nearly three years, as backlash to CEO Elon Musk's embrace of far-right politics grows and consumers seek out newer models from rival EV makers.

Rivian produced 14,611 vehicles in the first quarter, compared with 13,980 a year ago. It reaffirmed i``` annual deliveries forecast.

[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rivian-repor-fall-first-quarter-123133853.html](`https`://finance.yahoo.com/news/rivian-repor-fall-first-quarter-123133853.html)

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Hybrids? Toyota CEO dancing rn. Contrary to reddit predictions years ago.

**評論 2**:

As much as Rivian has struggled, this news seems particularly bad. Up until now, Rivian has been able to sell all the uni``` it produces in a given quarter. Selling only half of the paltry production this quarter means theyll have a new bad headline about inventory piling up.

Im pulling for them but this is the third year of zero production growth. Last years crisis was imminent insolvency. VW stepped in with a 5 year commitment to prevent that, but there is a chance VW could bail out at any point.

The immediate crisis now is how to improve margins. Having unsold inventory works against that. EVs being out of favor does too. So do the tariff bombshells.

Last year they blamed the zero growth on lack of some part. Im not sure they ever disclosed which part, or how the supply problem was fixed (if it ever existed or was ever fixed)

**評論 3**:

I hope this company sticks around. Id like to buy their R2 when it comes out but I also want to make sure that theyll be around to continue to service it.

**評論 4**:

CEO should announce hes joining government

**評論 5**:

Seems like no one wan``` EVs its wild. Not sure why I still own this stock.

---

## 15. ```
TSMCs $100B Pledge Reportedly Fails to Convince Investors, Analys```  Retail Remains Bearish
``` {#15-```
tsmcs-100b-pledge-reportedly-fails-to-convi}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：  
**美國政府可能施壓台積電（TSMC）以扶持本土半導體企業（如英特爾），以及台積電近期宣布的1000億美元美國投資計畫缺乏具體細節所引發的市場與政治不確定性**。  

具體要點包括：  
1. **政治壓力與產業動態**：美國政府可能透過政策手段要求台積電協助英特爾等本土競爭對手，反映地緣政治對半導體產業的影響。  
2. **投資計畫的模糊性**：台積電此次僅宣布擴大在美投資規模（新增3座晶圓廠及2座先進封裝廠），但未提供具體時間表或資金分配細節，與過去明確的承諾形成對比。  
3. **市場疑慮**：投資者因缺乏細節而感到不安，且分析師預估台積電美國業務在2030年代初僅占總營收的三分之一，凸顯其全球布局與美國本土化目標的落差。  

整體而言，文章聚焦於台積電在美投資的戰略意圖、政治風險，以及其對全球半導體供應鏈的潛在影響。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpmxxb/tsmcs_100b_pledge_reportedly_fails_to_convince/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpmxxb/tsmcs_100b_pledge_reportedly_fails_to_convince/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpmxxb/tsmcs_100b_pledge_reportedly_fails_to_convince/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpmxxb/tsmcs_100b_pledge_reportedly_fails_to_convince/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 20:07:15

### 內容

According to a report by the Financial Times, some industry insiders speculate that the U.S. government may eventually pressure TSMC to support struggling domestic manufacturers like Intel.

NYSE-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) (TSM) dipped nearly 1% in Wednesdays pre-market trading after a Financial Times report suggested the companys recently announced $100 billion U.S. investment plan reflec``` an intention rather than a promise.

The report highlighted that while the pledge has temporarily eased political pressure, TSMC has yet to outline specifics on how and when the investment will be deployed, leaving investors uneasy.

It noted that TSMCs latest pledge is significantly different from past commitmen. When TSMC first pledged to build semiconductor fabrication plan (fabs) in Arizona during Trumps first term, it provided detailed construction schedules.

The same applied when it expanded i``` U.S. investment to $40 billion in 2022 and then $65 billion in April 2024.

This time, the company has merely stated that it will add three new fabs to the three already announced, along with two facilities for advanced packaging. No precise timeline or breakdown of the $100 billion expenditure has been given.

The report also pointed out that despite the scale of the investment, TSMCs U.S. operations will remain a fraction of i``` global business.

Analys``` estimate that by the early 2030s, the Arizona fabs will generate no more than one-third of the companys total revenue.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

All big 100 B pledges are worth ignoring right now

**評論 2**:

A few weeks ago some story/rumor came out that TSM was in talks to take less than 50% stake in INTC foundry, but trying to get NVDA/QCOM/AVGO (others?) to join. I suppose that would guarantee some amount of business - or at the very least more motiviation for the project to succeed.

TSM probably more interested in building i``` own fabs in the US - rather than investing in INTC. I suspect the government will make it harder for them to do that, and pushing for investment to be with INTC.

INTC has been a mess; you got to wonder why any of the successful semi players would want to partner with them, when they are doing just fine without them. TSM can just spend the money to build fabs elsewhere.

**評論 3**:

That orange thing is good at getting fake promises and wrecking actual deals Biden accomplished. Republicans think this is genius. Never forget. Never forgive.

**評論 4**:

Gotta grease the fingers of Jr. and Co.

**評論 5**:

Stocks with aggressive investment historically have outperformed stocks that make conservative investmen```.

---

## 16. ```
r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Apr 02, 2025
``` {#16-```
r-stocks-daily-discussion-wednesday-apr-02-}

這段文字的核心討論主題是 **「股票投資的日常討論與資源分享」**，主要內容包括：

1. **日常討論安排**  
   - 週一至週五的固定討論（含特定主題日，如技術分析、選擇權交易、基本面分析等）。

2. **實用投資工具與資訊來源**  
   - 提供股票數據（Finviz）、市場新聞（Bloomberg、StreetInsider）、即時動向分析（Market Check）等連結，協助投資者獲取資訊。

3. **新手學習建議**  
   - 鼓勵自行查閱基礎知識（如透過Investopedia），進階後再參與討論。

4. **投資組合交流**  
   - 引導至專用討論串（Rate My Portfolio）分享個人持倉。

5. **歷史討論歸檔**  
   - 提供過往討論與主題日連結，方便回溯參考。

整體聚焦於 **「建立結構化的股票討論環境」**，結合資源整合、新手引導與主題化交流。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpkias/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_apr_02_2025/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpkias/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_apr_02_2025/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpkias/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_apr_02_2025/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpkias/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_apr_02_2025/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 17:30:12

### 內容

These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed pos```.

Some helpful links:

Finviz for char```, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
Bloomberg market news
StreetInsider news:
- Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
- Reuters aggregated - Global news

If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Trump is treating his tariff decision with more secrecy than actual national security info lol

**評論 2**:

Today better be fun. Flat roller coasters are boring.

**評論 3**:

Happy liberation day folks

**評論 4**:

Think on the bright side:

Some people will make a LOT of money today.

**評論 5**:

Its always funny to see people mad that the market does the opposite of what they expect. Its almost like its really, really hard to time the market. If the market was easy to time wed all be rich. Lmao

---

## 17. ```
The AI trade is far from over.
``` {#17-```
the-ai-trade-is-far-from-over-
```}

這篇文章的核心討論主題圍繞以下幾點：  

1. **半導體行業的短期波動與市場不確定性**：  
   - 半導體板塊因關稅擔憂和市場整體下跌而遭拋售，但作者認為這種不確定性正在消退，後續將進入談判階段。  

2. **OpenAI的GPU短缺與資金運用**：  
   - OpenAI因缺乏足夠的NVIDIA GPU（可能還有其他晶片，如AVGO的客製化晶片）而面臨產品延遲問題。  
   - 該公司剛完成史上最大規模的400億美元融資，作者推測資金將主要用於採購晶片（如NVIDIA、AVGO的產品）。  

3. **AI與晶片需求的長期趨勢**：  
   - 大型語言模型（LLM）和未來機器人技術的發展將持續加劇晶片短缺問題。  
   - 若OpenAI面臨短缺，其他企業也可能面臨類似挑戰，進一步強化半導體供應鏈的壓力。  

4. **投資觀點**：  
   - 作者看好半導體產業的長期需求，尤其推薦NVIDIA（NVDA）、博通（AVGO）和台積電（TSM）等公司。  

**總結**：文章結合市場動態、AI產業需求與半導體供應鏈問題，強調晶片短缺將持續推動相關企業的成長，並表達對半導體股的樂觀立場。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpsm1l/the_ai_trade_is_far_from_over/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpsm1l/the_ai_trade_is_far_from_over/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpsm1l/the_ai_trade_is_far_from_over/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpsm1l/the_ai_trade_is_far_from_over/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-03 00:17:18

### 內容

The semiconductor sector sold off simply because the rest of the market did, on tariff fears and uncertainty. The fog is clearing after today, then negotiations start.

OpenAI reported they still dont have enough NVDA GPU's to do what they want.

https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/01/sam-altman-says-that-openais-capacity-issues-will-cause-product-delays/

They also had the largest funding round in history, $40 Billion raised. Where is the $40 BILLION going to go? my guess is NVDA, maybe AVGO for custom chips.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/openai-closes-40-billion-in-funding-the-largest-private-fundraise-in-history-softbank-chatgpt.html

We are still in the relatively new stages of large language models and we still have chip shortages, when robotics's development expands the shortage will persist.

If OpenAI has stortages, i imagine everyone else does as well.

Long NVDA, AVGO and TSM.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Counter opinoin - I over. but AI won't go away. I just not profitable.

**評論 2**:

Over might not be correct, but these things tend to go in cycles. Internet stocks went nuclear in the late 90s, but returns in the early 2000s were abysmal.

**評論 3**:

Here is you challenge with NVDA...it is absolutely the cutting edge essential tech hardware for AI, but the entire world is now questioning capx spend plans from the hyperscalers. That means you are going to have multiple contraction in the valuation.

The chinese AI co Deepseek demonstrated that you can develop a competitive AI system without the massive capx (reportedly they spent only $5mm). Meanwhile, hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions in capx for hardware for AI development. Google alone is spending $75bn this year in capx for AI.

All these companies, Open AI, Google, Apple, Facebook, etc, are now having discussions about the best way to proceed, and that is likely not a comfortable conversation for companies like NVDA. Essentially, software apps can now accomplish for pennies what shear compute power of very expensive hardware was being used for.

NVDA graphics chips used to go for about $20k, but when AI exploded, NVDA chip prices quickly went up to $75k. That gave NVDA op margins of over 60%...insane for a hardware co. Capx spend for 2025 is already locked in so near term numbers should be ok, but the expectation is that in the out years, that spend is coming down. NVDA will still make boucoup bucks, but the days of triple digit rev growth seems over. The real innovations in AI development will be increasingly focused on the software side.

Slowing capx means less pricing power means lower margins means lower multiple.

**評論 4**:

I'm not convinced. The produc don't convince nor sell well. The datacenter sector in China looks like shit after DeekSeek, like, the providers are having trouble getting their stuff used because it's not needed as expected. So both layers of customers of NVIDIA have trouble getting their business model to work. And the 40 Billion investment is from Softbank. It's not like they're the benchmark for well working investmen. Them throwing money in their is not an indicator for anything. For what it's worth, it goes into Jim Cramer indicator direction.

**評論 5**:

They bought Tupperware instead

---

## 18. ```
Interesting Stocks Today (04/2)
``` {#18-```
interesting-stocks-today-04-2-
```}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是 **「短線交易機會與市場波動因素分析」**，主要聚焦於以下幾個重點：

1. **短線交易策略**  
   - 作者強調這是「當日觀察名單」，目標是尋找可能因事件驅動而波動的標的，而非長期投資。  
   - 交易決策基於即時新聞與價格動能，而非基本面分析。

2. **關鍵事件驅動因素**  
   - **中美貿易緊張升級**：  
     - 美國總統特朗普擬宣布新關稅政策（細節未定），可能引發全球市場波動。  
     - 中國反制措施（限制企業對美投資）及相關中概股（如FXI、BABA、PDD）的潛在衝擊。  
   - **TikTok禁令期限逼近**：  
     - 4月5日截止日期可能影響社交媒體競爭對手（META、SNAP、GOOG）。  

3. **特定個股分析**  
   - **特斯拉（TSLA）**：中國交付量下滑反映全球銷售疲軟，關注關鍵價格位（$250、$260）。  
   - **大盤指數（SPY、QQQ）與波動率（VXX）**：關稅不確定性可能加劇市場波動。  

4. **交易邏輯**  
   - 透過「事件驅動」與「新聞速度交易」捕捉短期價格波動，例如：  
     - 關稅政策公布後的市場即時反應。  
     - TikTok相關新聞對競爭對手的利好。  

**總結**：文章核心在於分析「當日可能引發市場波動的事件」，並據此篩選出高敏感度的交易標的，強調短線操作與快速反應的重要性。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpoamx/interesting_stocks_today_042/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpoamx/interesting_stocks_today_042/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpoamx/interesting_stocks_today_042/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpoamx/interesting_stocks_today_042/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 21:15:56

### 內容

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investmen```. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

News: Trump Weighing Tariff Options As Rose Garden Event Nears

Trump speaks at the Rose Garden at 4PM EST today- be on the lookout for incremental headlines or anything that is passed on from his admin.

FXI (China Large-Cap ETF), BABA (Alibaba), PDD (Pinduoduo), JD (JD.com) - China is restricting domestic companies from investing in the U.S. This is significant news in that it's a "warning shot across the bow" from China; they're slowly starting to escalate in response to Trump's potential tariffs coming out later today. A sign of escalation and a warning, China is essentially responding in kind that it will give tariffs back (just like 2018). Reduced Chinese investment could result in less liquidity in the marke``` overall and larger volatility. If you want to see a reminder of how Chinese stocks performed when we got into a trade war, look at 2018-2019. We haven't a seen a meaningful move in these stocks yet, but if there are responses from China in kind to the tariff announcement today, things are going to get volatile,

SPY (S&P 500 ETF), QQQ (Invesco QQQ), VXX, etc. - President Trump is set to unveil new tariffs today but is still finalizing details. Options include a tiered system (10%-20%) or a flat 20% global tariff. We're likely going to see a LOT of incremental headlines today on this until Trump speaks in the Rose Garden; I'll be watching what he says on the websites he pos``` on, and going for the speed trade on this. He is expected to talk at 4PM Eastern. Obviously, a lot of volatility and uncertainty due to no one knowing what exactly the tariff plans are going to be. The imposition of new tariffs could escalate trade tensions, leading to retaliatory measures from affected countries (which we don't know the extent of how many are affected) and impacting global economic growth.

TSLA (Tesla)- Tesla reported preliminary March China deliveries of 78.8K vehicles vs 89.1K YoY. The company has delivered 336,681 cars in the first quarter, far fewer than the 390,000 expected. The decline in Tesla's China deliveries was a bit of a signal that the global sales would be bad, but frankly this wasn't as terrible as I expected. Currently short, will cover if we break $260 to the upside. Also interested in the $250 level. You guys know the risks by now (BYD and competitors, Musk, politics, etc).

META, SNAP, GOOG - The April 5th deadline for TikTok to be sold off or face a ban is approaching, potentially leading to incremental headlines today in addition to tariff news. No real move in these stocks yet but I expect any news headline that is negative for TikTok to be great for the companies I'm watching (social media rivals). A ban on TikTok could alter the membership for the social media sites mentioned (they have to go somewhere). Since this is a weekend headline, I'm thinking of buying more GOOG- if TikTok DOES get banned, then these companies will likely gain. Otherwise, business continues as usual and they don't benefit. .

### 討論

**評論 1**:

As a reminder of how Chinese stocks performed during trade war look at 2018-2020? The same period China is on the most strict covid lockdown ever seen? You've got to be kidding. Trade war won't effect China as bad this time around.

**評論 2**:

I'm surprised how badly Millennium and Citadel did in the last quarter.

---

## 19. ```
Strategy advice
``` {#19-```
strategy-advice
```}

这篇文章的核心討論主題是：**一位新手投資者分享其當前投資組合配置、交易策略，並尋求反饋以檢視潛在錯誤**。具體內容可歸納為以下幾點：

1. **投資組合配置**  
   - 資金規模：流動性資產低於1萬美元，分散配置（每項標的佔比20%）。  
   - 帳戶類型：分為美國（USD）和加拿大（CAD）帳戶。  
   - 標的選擇：  
     - **美國科技股（中性）**：AMD、AMZN、META、MSFT、BRKB。  
     - **美國2倍槓桿ETF（看多）**：AMDG、AMZZ、FBL、MSFX、BRKU。  
     - **加拿大黃金與能源股（看空）**：AEM、AGI、OLA、CNQ、IMO。  

2. **交易策略**  
   - **模擬交易（Paper Trading）**：未來數月至一年內，將以虛擬10萬美元測試QQQ/TQQQ及MSTR/MSTU的策略。  
   - **技術分析工具**：使用5分鐘和1小時圖表，搭配Yahoo預設指標（50日均線、RSI 14、MACD 12-26-9）。  
   - **具體操作**：  
     - 等待良好進場點，每下跌5%加倉500美元（平均成本法）。  
     - 持有至明顯反彈後獲利了結，可能耗時數小時至數日。  
     - 重複執行並記錄績效。  

3. **風險管理與疑問**  
   - 策略依賴「逢低加倉」，但未明確提及止損機制或槓桿風險控制。  
   - 尋求他人檢視配置與策略的潛在問題，尤其是新手可能忽略的錯誤（如過度集中、槓桿使用不當等）。  

**總結**：作者聚焦於「分散配置」與「技術面驅動的波段交易」，但核心訴求是透過社群反驗證策略的合理性，凸顯對風險管理和執行細節的潛在不確定性。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpguw3/strategy_advice/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpguw3/strategy_advice/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpguw3/strategy_advice/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpguw3/strategy_advice/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 13:03:30

### 內容

I am new, here is my current investment choices and trade strategy. Currently all liquid under 10k. I need to know if there is any noticeable error. 20% weight on all. I have a USA and CAD account.

For a few months to a year I will paper trade QQQ/TQQQ and MSTR/MSTU with fake 10k war chest to average down every -5% using $500 at a time. Capturing "profi" each time char show certain trai using 5min and 1 hour char + Default Yahoo MA 50, RSI 14, MACD 12,26,9. Plan: wait for good entry, averaging down on lows, wait for solid recovery. May take hours or days before able to profit. Repeat and track progress.

USA Tech Profile (Neutral):

AMD AMD

AMZN Amazon

META Meta

MSFT Microsoft

BRKB Berkshire

USA Tech 2x leveraged (Bullish):

AMDG

AMZZ

FBL

MSFX

BRKU

Canada Profile Gold + Gas (Bearish):

AEM Agnico Eagle Mines

AGI Alamos Gold

OLA Orla Mining

CNQ Canadian Natural Resources

IMO Imperial Oil

Averaging down every -5% dip if I have cash

### 討論

**評論 1**:

trading is a losing game. try investing instead. stock picking. buy and hold.

then you can trade a small portion if you like, say 10% of your account or less.

me know in 5 years if your buy and hold grew more than your trading portion

**評論 2**:

You can't be absolute sure if a watermelon is ripe until you cut it open.

**評論 3**:

AAPL and chill

**評論 4**:

The strategy is predicated on a consistent upward momentum trend. You can get hammered in a persistent downtrend. Everyone is a genius in a bull market. What is your stop loss strategy?

---

## 20. ```
Do index funds and ETF's regularly change their holdings?
``` {#20-```
do-index-funds-and-etf-s-regularly-change-t}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：  
**「非科技/AI比重高的指數基金或ETF的投資策略與持股調整規則」**  

具體要點包括：  
1. **投資目標**：尋找不側重科技股（尤其是AI相關企業如NVIDIA）的基金，並探討這類基金是否存在。  
2. **基金運作疑問**：  
   - 基金持股的調整頻率與幅度如何？  
   - 是否有基金明確排除特定產業或公司（如科技股），或僅需符合大盤指數（如標普500、道瓊）範圍即可自由調整權重？  
3. **投資人權益**：指數基金/ETF對投資人是否有義務維持特定投資策略？  
4. **新手認知落差**：作者原以為指數基金會均勻分散持股，但實際發現基金可能動態調整權重（如集中於某些公司），並希望釐清背後規則。  

總結：文章聚焦於被動型基金的持股選擇彈性、產業偏向限制，以及投資策略透明度等問題。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpvod6/do_index_funds_and_etfs_regularly_change_their/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpvod6/do_index_funds_and_etfs_regularly_change_their/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpvod6/do_index_funds_and_etfs_regularly_change_their/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpvod6/do_index_funds_and_etfs_regularly_change_their/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-03 02:17:29

### 內容

Im looking to invest in a fund/funds that is not heavily weighed in tech, specifically AI and I know I can see the breakdown of how these index/ETF's are weighted, but how often can they change their holdings within the fund and to what degree?

Like is there such a fund that will not invest in say nvidia or will no invest in tech companies AND i in writing, or are these funds open to how they best see fit to invest, so long as i within the SP 500, or DOW?

Any info on what obligations index/ETFs have to the buyer to keep investing in a certain way.....

I'm new to all this and I always assumed a index fund that tracked the S&P 500 was evenly distributed with all the companies in that market, but it doesn't seem like a lot of them are and they appear free to weigh more to one company over another, and this can shift over time.....

### 討論

**評論 1**:

"I'm new to all this and I always assumed a index fund that tracked the S&P 500 was evenly distributed with all the companies in that market"

You can get the equal weight S&P 500 etf - RSP

"Like is there such a fund that will not invest in say nvidia or will no invest in tech companies AND i in writing, or are these funds open to how they best see fit to invest, so long as i within the SP 500, or DOW?"

If it's in the index it's in the index fund.

You could certainly invest in various funds that were less tech oriented.

AUSF is kind of an interesting ETF in that it allocates between minimum volatility, value, and momentum (either two factors with a 50% / 50% weighting, or all three factors with a weighting of 40% / 40% / 20%.) So you have something that may be more tech oriented if that's working or less if it's not. It's not going to change frequently so you may have periods where it tanks if the market quickly does (early 2020), but it managed through 2022 well when value was in favor.

There's a lot that would be less tech (value, flexible funds, etc) but I definitely wouldn't do no tech.

**評論 2**:

Short answer...no.

an index fund replicates the index and only changes when the index does, usually once a year. There should be no variation.

**評論 3**:

Index funds have to invest in all of the stocks in the index, they may use equal weighting or market capitalization. An index fund can be an ETF.

An ETF is more general it can invest in an index or it can invest whatever it says it's investing in small caps, medium caps, dividend stocks, tech stocks, large caps etc. The fund manager decides what to buy.

---

## 21. ```
Heikin Ashi Quarterly candle
``` {#21-```
heikin-ashi-quarterly-candle
```}

這段文字的核心討論主題是：**作者對標準普爾500指數（S&P 500）近期出現的紅色季度「Heikin Ashi」蠟燭圖形態表示擔憂，並探討這是否預示未來幾個季度市場可能進一步下跌**。  

重點包括：  
1. **技術分析觀察**：作者透過放大S&P 500的季度蠟燭圖，指出2024年3月31日結束的季度出現紅色蠟燭，打破了先前的上升趨勢。  
2. **歷史模式擔憂**：根據Heikin Ashi圖表，紅色季度蠟燭後通常會再出現另一根紅色蠟燭，暗示下跌趨勢可能持續。  
3. **市場風險質疑**：作者不確定此信號是巧合還是有效的技術指標，但對當前市場處於高點（"nosebleed levels"）後可能的下跌表達不安，並以比喻（「黑色鑽石斜坡頂端的小紅人」）強調潛在的下行風險。  

整體而言，這是一段基於技術分析的市場趨勢擔憂與疑問。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpfgi8/heikin_ashi_quarterly_candle/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpfgi8/heikin_ashi_quarterly_candle/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpfgi8/heikin_ashi_quarterly_candle/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpfgi8/heikin_ashi_quarterly_candle/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 11:39:16

### 內容

This freaks me out a bit, but a technical analyst might be able to add more clarity. I went to the S&P 500 index chart and zoomed out to max. I set a quarterly time frame for each candle. The end of the quarter just ending on March 31 resulted in a new smallish red candle, breaking the upward movement of previous green candles. The S&P is still at nosebleed levels, and (when looking at the aforementioned chart) you will see that a newly formed red quarterly heikin ashi candle is almost always followed by another red candle for the subsequent quarter. So, I'm just wondering. Is this a bogus, coincidental indicator, or are we possibly screwed and very likely to go down further over the coming quarter(s)? Really, it looks like that little red dude is at the top of a black diamond slope waiting to take off downhill.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Coming from another methodology (quantitative forecasting), we've had a series of days/weeks where opening/closing market pressures are mostly bearish...and where the QQQ engages in scoring moderate lows. This is in addition to the days of extreme drops.

Tomorrow, for instance, we are forecasting a median low b/w -1 and -1.50%...although the closing pressures will tend to be rising/bullish. So if you are seeing room for worry with your indicators, you are not alone. Hope this helps.

**評論 2**:

The next quarterly candle will probably represent the tariff aftermath. Lower Earnings, resipital tariffs,, higher inflation and low tourism.

**評論 3**:

I see an inverted anoos dingle doji

**評論 4**:

Hi, I'm an Analyst. Pm me and we'll figure this out IRL at home.

**評論 5**:

Have you tried consulting an astrologist instead?

---

## 22. ```
Buying a large position/ or an entire micro cap company?
``` {#22-```
buying-a-large-position-or-an-entire-micro-}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：**購買大量股份是否可能獲得公司董事會席位或被邀請參加股東大會**。具體探討了在上市公司（如紐約證交所或納斯達克掛牌）中，持有顯著比例股份（例如公司市值100萬美元時購買10萬美元股票）對股東權益（如參與治理）的潛在影響。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpw470/buying_a_large_position_or_an_entire_micro_cap/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpw470/buying_a_large_position_or_an_entire_micro_cap/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpw470/buying_a_large_position_or_an_entire_micro_cap/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpw470/buying_a_large_position_or_an_entire_micro_cap/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-03 02:34:47

### 內容

Is this possible? If there are enough shares ou```tanding and you buy a significant amount do you get invited to be on the board of directors or invited to shareholder meeting? For example if a company has a market cap of say $1 million and you buy $100k of stock. This is assuming the company trades on NYSE or Nasdaq.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Outlined in the company charter, I think. And they don't have to sell shares with voting righ``` if they don't want to. Board members are mostly voted in as far as I know

**評論 2**:

Those would be pink sheet stocks, and you would need to file a SEC 13D and form 4 when you go over 5%. There is no rule about board membership, each co has their own standards. You would be best off speaking with the company's directors first about your intentions.

---

## 23. ```
Am I Doing this Right
``` {#23-```
am-i-doing-this-right
```}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：  

**「是否應該辭退現有的財務顧問，改為自行管理投資組合以實現提前退休（55歲或更早）的目標？」**  

具體討論的重點包括：  
1. **財務顧問的價值評估**：  
   - 顧問目前收取1%的管理費（僅限Roth IRA），並提供結構化投資工具（但作者不確定是否真的無法自行取得）。  
   - 顧問的服務是否值得支付費用（如簡化投資流程、提供專業建議）。  

2. **自行管理的可行性與策略**：  
   - 作者考慮轉向被動投資策略（如Boglehead方法，以低成本指數基金為主），以降低費用並簡化投資組合。  
   - 現有投資組合已高度分散（包含多種ETF如VEA、SCHX、IVV等），可能已符合被動投資原則。  

3. **提前退休的目標考量**：  
   - 當前淨資產30萬美元（含Roth IRA、經紀帳戶、緊急儲備等），需評估顧問對長期退休規劃的幫助。  
   - 對現有保險產品（Indexed Universal Life）的後悔，反映對顧問建議的信任度下降。  

4. **權衡取捨**：  
   - 保留顧問的潛在好處（結構化投資、省時） vs. 自行管理的優勢（節省費用、完全掌控）。  

**總結**：作者尋求建議，決定是否應繼續支付顧問費用，或轉向更自主、低成本的投資方式以優化提前退休計畫。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpfp53/am_i_doing_this_right/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpfp53/am_i_doing_this_right/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpfp53/am_i_doing_this_right/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpfp53/am_i_doing_this_right/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 11:53:02

### 內容

30 y/o wanting to retire by 55 or as soon as possible. Have net worth of around 300k. 120k Roth (maxing out every month), 110k brokerage (contribute 1-3k per month to), 30k HYSA (six month safety net), 30k accumulation value Indexed Universal Life (regret, started very young, still contributing monthly to), and 10k liquid. My question is this, I have a financial advisor that manages my Roth, brokerage, and life insurance. They claim they are only charging 1% fee on my Roth IRA. I am wondering if it is time to go of them and manage everything on my own. The advisor has set up a few structured investmen that I am under the impression I would not have access to on my own. My Roth is pretty diversified with VEA,SCHX,VWO,VTIP, BNDX, and many other ETFs. Brokerage is IVV, IWM, ARKW, etc. Based on my goals of early retirement and situation, should I the advisor go and try and do this on my own, possibly simplifying to something like Boglehead method, or if it is truly only the 1%, is it worth keeping the advisor for access to the structured investmen, less headache, etc? Any advice on both investment strategy and financial advisor is greatly welcomed and appreciated.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

What do you mean they claim? And any regarded normal can tell you to invest in that kind of crap. If theyre not beating spx, educate yourself.

**評論 2**:

1% is a ton of damage to compounding returns. Go check out some calculators for what that does over 20 years, then consider if the advisor is worth that money.

**評論 3**:

My impression is this year with a more aggressive investment plan one can really screw up causing significant losses than if you him show you how to construct it properly. Most CFP are conservative to preserve your capital not to lose it. Later when economy normalize it you learn more and can do as you please. Most S&P 500 fund investors so far this year lost -4.8% which is significant.

**評論 4**:

I would just do a vanguard targeted fund and not pay 1% for something that would probably under perform it.

**評論 5**:

Without doing a tldr

Yes, , you can do it yourself. You sound like you're socking away a lot, that's great. Your advisors are prolly raping you and not putting much effort as they're getting paid. These structured investmen``` are designed to make them money not you. Ask them if they are a fiduciary.

Move your accoun to a good broker and stay in diversified investmen using index and sector etfs. As you learn and become more aware of marke```, you can transition to stock picking, but just stay diversified and don't go all YOLO on meme shit. Doing roth is great. I take it no 401k.

Passive investing is great for beginners but because it's dominating the money, stock picking is where the excess returns are. Start taking an interest in companies, learn how to spot good value or growth potential.

Avoid shorting, derivatives and futures till you're more expert on investing. These are tools for hedging, income, speculation and trading, not investing. Buy and hold long stocks.

Best brokers: fidelity, vanguard, etrade, ibkr.

---

## 24. ```
Stock bea``` earnings expectations and immediately drops 17%
``` {#24-```
stock-bea```-earnings-expectations-and-imme}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：**投資者對股票市場不可預測性的挫折感與困惑**，尤其是當公司財報表現良好（如超出預期）時股價卻反向下跌的矛盾現象。作者質疑市場邏輯（如「買謠言、賣新聞」策略）是否適用，並在反覆經歷類似情況後，開始傾向被動投資策略（如投資S&P ETF）作為更穩健的長期選擇。  

關鍵要點：  
1. **市場行為的矛盾性**：即使基本面良好（如財報優於預期），股價反應仍可能違背直覺。  
2. **對傳統解釋的質疑**：作者檢視常見市場理論（如「買謠言、賣新聞」或技術分析），但發現無法合理解釋現象。  
3. **被動投資的吸引力**：因主動投資的不可預測性，轉而考慮指數型基金（ETF）作為更簡單、穩定的長期選項。  

整體反映散戶投資者面對市場非理性時的無力感，以及對投資策略的重新評估。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpot84/stock_beats_earnings_expectations_and_immediately/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpot84/stock_beats_earnings_expectations_and_immediately/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpot84/stock_beats_earnings_expectations_and_immediately/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpot84/stock_beats_earnings_expectations_and_immediately/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 21:40:37

### 內容

I try to understand the market. I've tried for years. And yeah, I get that there are multiple layers and factors that contribute to a stocks pricing, but... the number of times I've seen this happen is just bonkers. Most recently, BB beat earnings by 3 cen``` and immediately tanked. It makes NO SENSE. Buy the rumor, sell the news? Based on the chart, that doesn't seem to be the case either. Make it make sense!!!

The more I see this, the more I just think I should park all my money in an S&P ETF and just it ride until I retire.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

They issued weak guidance for Q1 and FY

**評論 2**:

I refer you to NVDA, the classic example of too much is still not enough.

**評論 3**:

Time to go of the expectation that the market should behave rationally, or by some set of expectations you have in your head.

**評論 4**:

[deleted]

**評論 5**:

One of the things to understand going into earnings is how much optimism vs pessimism is baked into the current price. If the stock has a trailing PE above their historical average, and all of the talk is about forward PE or PEG ratio, for example, then youre generally going to need strong guidance to see positive action after earnings.

If all of the talk is pessimistic, the trailing PE is below their historical average companys historical average, and there has been earnings strength in prior quarters, youre less likely to see a drop, and sometimes get a lift on less bad news.

Its also important to always anchor to probabilistic thinking instead of trying to know what will happen. We can get a good enough sense to be more often correct than wrong, but obviously cant perfectly predict on a reliable basis. Having said that, people fail to realize how impactful it is to be right more frequently than youre wrong, and to be aware and respectful of potential surprise.

Its useful to think, which forces could move the market or stock down? If they do, what would that look like? What could move them up? What would that look like? this is where the value of analys``` come in. Their value isnt in being specifically right all of the time. Its understanding range of outcomes and identifying asymmetric risk or positioning relative to the range.

---

## 25. ```
Reddit stocks has become 90% retail day traders or else buy and hold
``` {#25-```
reddit-stocks-has-become-90-retail-day-trad}

這篇文章的核心討論主題可總結為以下幾點：

1. **對投資論壇的批評**：  
   作者強烈批評該論壇上大多數交易日員和股票投資者提供的建議是錯誤或不可靠的，甚至認為「反向操作」多數建議反而能獲利，並感嘆缺乏實質且嚴謹的財務分析建議。

2. **市場操縱與政治影響**：  
   作者指責美國總統特朗普通過政策宣布（如關稅）的時間點（股市收盤後）刻意操縱市場，導致恐慌情緒（如空頭被軋），並認為這種政治干預行為異常且不尋常。

3. **投資心態與行為的反思**：  
   批評散戶投資者不設停損、盲目追求快速獲利的心態，並強調市場應「在他人恐懼時貪婪」的反向操作策略。

4. **個人預測與市場反應**：  
   作者以自身準確預測當日市場上漲（green market）和關稅消息已反映在股價中為例，反駁論壇上的質疑，同時預測次日市場可能回調，需觀察關稅對企業的真正影響。

5. **訊息可信度的警示**：  
   文末呼籲讀者保持獨立判斷，勿輕信市場謠言或政治宣傳（如特朗普美化關稅政策），暗示大眾易受誤導。

**核心衝突**：  
論壇的無效建議、政治力量對市場的非常規干預，以及散戶非理性行為之間的矛盾，構成文章的主軸。作者試圖揭露市場表象下的操縱本質，並強調理性分析的重要性。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jprjdl/reddit_stocks_has_become_90_retail_day_traders_or/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jprjdl/reddit_stocks_has_become_90_retail_day_traders_or/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jprjdl/reddit_stocks_has_become_90_retail_day_traders_or/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jprjdl/reddit_stocks_has_become_90_retail_day_traders_or/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 23:33:20

### 內容

This forum has become the place where anywhere 90% to 99% of the day traders , stock investors are wrong or just give bad stock advice.

It's like you could just do the opposite of the majority of the advice on here and make money.

Very rarely do I see someone come here and give good solid advice that is sound and the financials look good.

If your the investor tha``` buying and holding without a stop loss you get what you deserve very little.

Some people want to push a magic button and just have money printed out like a ATM. It doesn't work that way.

I mentioned on this forum how the market was going to be green Green Green all day today.

I mentioned how Trump was going to make the announcement of the Tariffs at 4pm after the Marke``` and that the Tariffs were already priced into the market.

I also said it was a totally a shake down of all the shor , pu in the market.

You could look on CNN reporting of the marke``` saying they were acting in a manner of extreme fear.

I have never seen so much market manipulation in my life.

I got critized for Making the accurate prediction.

Who here can honestly say they wanted to short the market today and got hammered?

I can't remember the last time I seen any other president manipulate the market like this. Usually the president just makes an announcement that effec``` business during the middle of the day not afterwords.

I thought this was a place where we could share solid good advice about stocks and the market. Apparently not.

Now Tomorrow it won't really matter what happens.

Even if the market goes down Trump will not be on tv talking about the stock market or even Tariffs because he already talked about it today at 4pm.

Just imagine Trump boasting and bragging how wonderful the stock market is up and the tariffs are making money for America etc.

Simply put he pulled the wool over the peoples eyes who I can't believe the stupid fell for the shenanigans.

I still think we see a pull back in tomorrows marke```.

Tomorrow will be a real test if the Tariffs are good or bad for corporations in America.

Too many people acted in fear today when the correct way was to be greedy.

Thank you and don't believe everything you here.

### 討論

**評論 1**:

>If your the investor tha``` buying and holding without a stop loss you get what you deserve very little.

How are you going to come and broadly patronize a community while writing a sentence that looks like this? How does a person not proof read a post like this?

And if you did proof read it, what circumstances in your life led you you to have such a high degree of blind confidence about yourself?

**評論 2**:

Kind of like what youre doing here?

**評論 3**:

This is honestly the worst financial subreddit that exis``` on reddit. Its fully enshitified by the lowest common denominator redditor.

As a result, the stock market, which is essentially the essence of modern capitalism, is being discussed by typical Redditors who are often communist young adul still living in their paren basement.

The other day, I saw a post doing an analysis of companies operating in the beer and liquor industry. Some guy brought up a very valid point about taxes hurting margins, and he got completely downvoted to oblivion. The hive mind had concluded instead that high prices on beer and liquor were the result of corporate greed.

This sub is a complete joke! Ironically, I am long RDDT.

**評論 4**:

>Very rarely do I see someone come here and give good solid advice that is sound and the financials look good.

Everytime there's a well thought out post/comment, it just ge``` downvoted to oblivion

**評論 5**:

Pretty extreme case of Dunning-Kruger even by reddit's standards.

---

## 26. ```
Is This a 'Buy the Dip' Moment for U.S. Stocks? - WSJ
``` {#26-```
is-this-a-buy-the-dip-moment-for-u-s-stocks}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：**美國股市近期下跌後是否出現「逢低買入」（Buy the Dip）的機會**。  

重點包括：  
1. **市場動態**：美國主要股指經歷動盪後反彈，部分投資者認為當前是進場時機。  
2. **投資者觀點**：專業人士（如Thorne Perkin）認為，市場情緒過度悲觀，近期拋售可能過度，反而創造買入機會。  
3. **不確定因素**：關稅政策（trade fight）的後續發展可能影響市場走向，投資者需密切關注後續消息。  

整體而言，文章探討在市場波動中，投資人是否應將當前下跌視為進場良機。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpcpy2/is_this_a_buy_the_dip_moment_for_us_stocks_wsj/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpcpy2/is_this_a_buy_the_dip_moment_for_us_stocks_wsj/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpcpy2/is_this_a_buy_the_dip_moment_for_us_stocks_wsj/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpcpy2/is_this_a_buy_the_dip_moment_for_us_stocks_wsj/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 09:30:14

### 內容

Source - https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-02-2025/card/is-this-a-buy-the-dip-moment-for-u-s-stocks--DRo9rHzpZ63YyZ7r4w8A

Is This a 'Buy the Dip' Moment for U.S. Stocks?

6:35 AM - Apr 2

By Gunjan Banerji

Some investors smell a buying opportunity in U.S. stocks after a tumultuous stretch.

Investors have waded back into marke``` this week, helping send all three major indexes higher for the week.

Thorne Perkin, president at Papamarkou Wellner Perkin, said the trade fight hasn't dented his optimism about U.S. stocks, and he thinks the recent selloff has been far too severe. The S&P 500 just finished i``` worst quarter since 2022, and measures of consumer and investor sentiment have tumbled.

"Every time sentiment ge``` this bearish...whenever it's this kind of hopeless feeling, that's generally a time to go in," Perkin said. "I think it will all be okay."

Of course, investors will learn a lot more about how the tariffs will shake out more on Wednesday.

This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).

### 討論

**評論 1**:

I mean I just kept adding to my positions regardless

**評論 2**:

I'll do you guys a solid and buy so that the market goes into another dip.

**評論 3**:

lol still got tariffs tomorrow and jobs report on Friday, but sure, knock yourself out!

**評論 4**:

No, this is a paywall

**評論 5**:

You call this a dip?

---

## 27. ```
Bought NVDA at the wrong time? Not sure what to do next
``` {#27-```
bought-nvda-at-the-wrong-time-not-sure-what}

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：  
**「缺乏投資經驗的新手在遭遇短期虧損時，是否該止損出場或長期持有？」**  

具體要點包括：  
1. **投資動機與背景**：作者因朋友推薦而跟風買入NVIDIA股票，對投資知識有限，僅抱持「長期增值」的模糊目標。  
2. **當前困境**：買入後股價下跌導致帳面虧損，不確定應立即止損或等待回升。  
3. **決策矛盾**：  
   - 短期情緒：因「買在高點」的挫折感傾向退出。  
   - 長期觀點：經他人建議後，考慮到長期持有的潛力（甚至加碼）。  
4. **關鍵問題**：在無深入投資知識的情況下，如何平衡風險與預期報酬，做出合理決策。  

補充討論隱含主題：  
- **被動投資心態**：作者無意深入學習投資，凸顯一般散戶依賴他人意見的常見行為。  
- **風險承受能力**：雖可承受損失，但情緒受短期波動影響。

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp8s83/bought_nvda_at_the_wrong_time_not_sure_what_to_do/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp8s83/bought_nvda_at_the_wrong_time_not_sure_what_to_do/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp8s83/bought_nvda_at_the_wrong_time_not_sure_what_to_do/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jp8s83/bought_nvda_at_the_wrong_time_not_sure_what_to_do/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-02 06:26:35

### 內容

Hi everyone,

I know absolutely nothing about investing. My understanding is just: I buy stocks, they can go up or down, and I either make or lose money.

On January 6th, I bought 73 shares of NVIDIA. I had heard from friends that they made good money with it, so I thought Id try it too.

Im from Brazil, and I paid BRL 1,381.61. Now my investment is worth BRL 951.92 thats a loss of BRL 429.24.

Looking at the chart on Google, it seems like I got unlucky and bought right before it dropped.

My question is: should I just accept the loss and take my money out before it drops more? Or should I leave it there and hope for the best?

I honestly have no clue what might happen next, and to be honest, Im not really interested in learning more about investing I just want to make a reasonable decision here.

Thanks in advance!

EDIT: Based on the commen, I think it's important to clarify that I didn't have any specific goal with this investment I just wanted to grow my money over the long term. I was aware of the risk of losing money, so I only invested an amount I was comfortable with potentially losing. From what I've read in the commen, it seems like holding onto these shares for the long term might actually be a good idea (Apparently even buying more haha).

### 討論

**評論 1**:

Hold

**評論 2**:

You are lucky that you bought NVDA and not any other popular stock. It's a valuable company which had a stock price appreciate a little too quickly. If you hold, the price will come around as the company keeps making money

It could have been way worse. Do not buy stocks you know nothing about in the future. Also don't take a loss in NVDA unless you know what you're doing

**評論 3**:

what time frame are you expecting to make money in? luckily, nvda is a good company. You did buy at a high, but if it were me, i'd just wait and hold on to it and it will likely rise in price again. The marke``` are all down right now because of the economic uncertainty. hopefully this is just a price correction. we'll know over the next few days. In the end, just try to have patience and wait it out. You should think more long term on this. This is not investing advice. lol.

**評論 4**:

Ive lost double than yours and I am holding and keep on buying for long term

**評論 5**:

Definitely hold. It will go up eventually and you'll thank yourself.

---

## 28. ```
Explain GameStop
``` {#28-```
explain-gamestop
```}

由於提供的文章內容已被移除（`[removed]`），我無法直接分析其核心討論主題。若您能提供具體的文章內容或相關描述，我可以協助總結其核心議題或重點。  

例如，您可以分享：  
1. 文章的大致領域（如科技、社會、經濟等）。  
2. 關鍵詞或段落摘要。  
3. 作者的主要論點或問題意識。  

若有其他需求，也請隨時說明！

- **Reddit 連結**: [https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpv1lf/explain_gamestop/](https://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpv1lf/explain_gamestop/)
- **外部連結**: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpv1lf/explain_gamestop/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jpv1lf/explain_gamestop/)
- **發布時間**: 2025-04-03 01:53:02

### 內容

[removed]

### 討論

**評論 1**:

My guess is this post won't stay up either.

I'll just say that you're not going to get objective commentary here either because if the poster's been around since 2021, they remember meme mania from early that year and hated the way the posters that were involved with it acted.

**評論 2**:

In the most succinct and unbiased terms: they were the subject of a rare event, a short squeeze. This caused the stock price to jump exponentially. There are those who think this will happen again and their goal is to buy and DRS as many shares as possible in anticipation. GameStop the company used this to their advantage to issue new shares which were bought and built a very good cash cushion. While they continue to trim their retail business, the cash they hold from their stock sales has made enough interest to bring their total earnings positive. There seems to be a tough equilibrium, for now, of buyers and sellers and so the stock does not move too much day to day but is subject to huge spikes and selloffs usually around earnings or other major news

**評論 3**:

You post was likely deleted because it tends to attract a lot of misinformation and conspiracy nonsense from the GME cult. Many subreddi don't like to have pos about GME because of the brigading that it attrac. And even WSB limi GME pos```.

Gamestop is a company that has been failing as a business for many years.

If you look at the actual fundamentals - they are an unprofitable company with very little hope of becoming profitable as an operational entity. In their latest filings, you can see that they have been closing a lot of stores and laying off employees as a means to reduce operating expenses.

The only reason why Gamestop is able to show a profit is because the company si``` on a lot of cash - and because interest rates are high - they interest on the cash is why the company shows a profit.

Companies that sit on a lot of cash without the ability to re-invest it is generally not a good thing. It is potentially a sign that executive management do not have a strategic plan for the business.

Revenue at the company has also been falling - this is obviously because of all the store closings.

There are a lot of conspiracies about how the stock is heavily shorted, etc. Most of that is actually false and has no basis in reality. The actual short interest in Gamestop - while high is not meaningful. Many of the conspiracies will suggest that there are hidden and unreported naked short positions - but that is also untrue. The way that the capital marke``` work - do not make it possible. And it's actually not legal and possible for an entity to naked short unless that entity is a market participant who provides liquidity. However - market markers are net neutral - so they are required to naked short when the maker does not have inventory on hand - but because they are neutral - they will go long using a derivative or cover.

Generally speaking - GME is not considered an investible company. But because of i``` volatility - it will attract speculators and experienced traders that will trade the volatility. For me - I can generate some reliable income by taking a short positions using options on GME.

Recently - the company announced that they would potentially try to hold bitcoin. This is a play that comes from Microstrategy. It's a way to artificially allow institutional funds who cannot hold crypto asse``` have exposure to bitcoin. But that means that the value of GME will likely be tied to bitcoin's value. In general, that render's the company as an operational entity meaningless. And the stock's value would simply be a volatile bitcoin proxy.

There is really no appeal to Gamestop as an investor. But for experience traders who trade volatile stocks - it can be a way to make money by effectively taking advantage of the GME cult behavior.

[edit] - one more thing. The way that the stock market determines what a company is worth is to look at future earnings and potential. There is usually a premium on the stock price. The market currently values GME as a 10bn company. Some models even with a premium would probably place the company value at closer to 6Bn so - the company stock at present is considered very over-valued. Because of Gamestop's silliness - most analys do not cover the stock. Afaik - there is only 1 or 2 analys that cover Gamestop and they place the valuation at about half the current valuation.

**評論 4**:

So what is it? You are completely alien to investing but married to a guy who put 85% of all your money into GME, or you are someone actually looking to invest who can spout off insider jargon about the stock and call people bandwagoners? Your pos``` make you look disingenuous at best or a troll at worst.

My advice remains the same if you arent engagement farming:

Go to a financial advisor and prohibit this man from managing that much money ever again (assuming this isnt just bait).

**評論 5**:

They have $6B in cash, which generates interest and/or ge``` invested. That alone means that the market cap should be at least $6B and growing*. But they also run a profitable business of gaming stores, which further increases the value of the company.

They are currently trading at about 2x book value, which is not a lot for a debt-free, profitable business that just may transition to becoming the next Berkshire Hathaway.

*) Note: I'm not a fan of their current plan to start investing into BTC and I hope that it will be a minor portion of their investment strategy. That's currently pure speculation.

---

# 總體討論重點

以下是28篇文章的核心討論重點總結，以條列方式呈現並附上逐條細節與對應錨點連結：

---

### 文章重點總結

#### #1 [US tourism officials sound alarm](#anchor_1)
1. **現象分析**  
   - 加拿大赴美旅遊數據暴跌（航空-70%、陸路-45%），歐洲預訂量-25%。  
2. **交易策略**  
   - 做空：加航、邊境州零售業；做多：國際酒店、區域性航空機庫。  
3. **關鍵論點**  
   - 加拿大為先行指標，經濟損失恐達140億美元。  

#### #2 [Trump Tells Inner Circle That Musk Will Leave Soon](#anchor_2)
1. **角色轉變**  
   - 馬斯克從政治前臺轉向幕後支持。  
2. **動機**  
   - 川普與馬斯克共識需回歸商業領域。  

#### #3 [Atlanta Feds GDP estimate -3.7%](#anchor_3)
1. **模型特點**  
   - GDPNow即時更新，波動期準確性高。  
2. **比較**  
   - 紐約聯儲Nowcast更適合穩定時期。  

#### #4 [The Folksam Group (Sweden) is selling entire shareholding in Tesla](#anchor_4)
1. **撤資原因**  
   - 特斯拉違反ESG勞工權益標準。  

#### #5 [Tesla reports 336,000 vehicle deliveries](#anchor_5)
1. **業績下滑**  
   - 交付量低於預期（336k vs 377k），股價單季-36%。  
2. **挑戰**  
   - 歐洲市占暴跌（德16%→4%），馬斯克政治立場引發抵制。  

#### #6 [Newsmax spikes 700% on NYSE debut](#anchor_6)
1. **政治關聯**  
   - 川普當選帶動收視率，但仍落後Fox News。  
2. **市場反應**  
   - 首日股價從$10飆至$83.51。  

#### #7 [China Restricts Companies From Investing in US](#anchor_7)
1. **政策內容**  
   - 中國暫停對美新投資審批。  
2. **動機**  
   - 反制美國關稅，控制資本外流。  

#### #8 [Why is TSLA up 5% today?](#anchor_8)
1. **矛盾現象**  
   - 銷量下滑但股價上漲，推測因做市商對沖操作。  

#### #9 [Amazon bids for TikTok](#anchor_9)
1. **收購動態**  
   - 亞馬遜最後一刻競標，配合美國政府禁令壓力。  

#### #10 [Tesla Hidey Hole](#anchor_10)
1. **質疑焦點**  
   - 馬斯克「現實扭曲力場」掩蓋交付數據造假。  

#### #11 [Trump Media shares drop](#anchor_11)
1. **股價下跌**  
   - 內部人士擬出售股票（流通股129.2%）。  
2. **財務問題**  
   - 2024年虧損4.01億美元。  

#### #12 [Gene editing stocks smoked](#anchor_12)
1. **暴跌原因**  
   - 政治不確定性（RFK Jr.言論）。  
2. **投資機會**  
   - 技術長期看好，是否適合抄底？  

#### #13 [Recession probability rises](#anchor_13)
1. **數據變化**  
   - 衰退機率兩週內23%→44%（Polymarket）。  

#### #14 [Rivian deliveries fall 36%](#anchor_14)
1. **行業困境**  
   - 需求轉向混動車，關稅加劇成本壓力。  

#### #15 [TSMC’s $100B pledge fails to convince](#anchor_15)
1. **市場疑慮**  
   - 投資計畫缺乏細節，美國業務僅占2030年營收1/3。  

#### #16 [r/Stocks Daily Discussion](#anchor_16)
1. **結構化討論**  
   - 提供工具連結（Finviz、Bloomberg）與新手引導。  

#### #17 [The AI trade is far from over](#anchor_17)
1. **半導體需求**  
   - OpenAI GPU短缺強化NVDA、AVGO長期價值。  

#### #18 [Interesting Stocks Today](#anchor_18)
1. **短線策略**  
   - 關稅與TikTok

2025-04-03-top

討論重點

文章重點總結

#1 US tourism officials sound alarm

#2 Trump Tells Inner Circle That Musk Will Leave Soon

#3 Atlanta Feds GDP estimate -3.7%

#4 The Folksam Group (Sweden) is selling entire shareholding in Tesla

#5 Tesla reports 336,000 vehicle deliveries

#6 Newsmax spikes 700% on NYSE debut

#7 China Restricts Companies From Investing in US

#8 Why is TSLA up 5% today?

#9 Amazon bids for TikTok

#10 Tesla Hidey Hole

#11 Trump Media shares drop

#12 Gene editing stocks smoked

#13 Recession probability rises

#14 Rivian deliveries fall 36%

#15 TSMC’s $100B pledge fails to convince

#16 r/Stocks Daily Discussion

#17 The AI trade is far from over

#18 Interesting Stocks Today

文章核心重點

目錄

Trump speaks at the Rose Garden at 4PM EST today- be on the lookout for incremental headlines or anything that is passed on from his admin.

討論重點​

文章重點總結​

#1 US tourism officials sound alarm​

#2 Trump Tells Inner Circle That Musk Will Leave Soon​

#3 Atlanta Feds GDP estimate -3.7%​

#4 The Folksam Group (Sweden) is selling entire shareholding in Tesla​

#5 Tesla reports 336,000 vehicle deliveries​

#6 Newsmax spikes 700% on NYSE debut​

#7 China Restricts Companies From Investing in US​

#8 Why is TSLA up 5% today?​

#9 Amazon bids for TikTok​

#10 Tesla Hidey Hole​

#11 Trump Media shares drop​

#12 Gene editing stocks smoked​

#13 Recession probability rises​

#14 Rivian deliveries fall 36%​

#15 TSMC’s $100B pledge fails to convince​

#16 r/Stocks Daily Discussion​

#17 The AI trade is far from over​

#18 Interesting Stocks Today​

文章核心重點​

目錄​

Trump speaks at the Rose Garden at 4PM EST today- be on the lookout for incremental headlines or anything that is passed on from his admin.

討論重點

文章重點總結

#1 US tourism officials sound alarm

#2 Trump Tells Inner Circle That Musk Will Leave Soon

#3 Atlanta Feds GDP estimate -3.7%

#4 The Folksam Group (Sweden) is selling entire shareholding in Tesla

#5 Tesla reports 336,000 vehicle deliveries

#6 Newsmax spikes 700% on NYSE debut

#7 China Restricts Companies From Investing in US

#8 Why is TSLA up 5% today?

#9 Amazon bids for TikTok

#10 Tesla Hidey Hole

#11 Trump Media shares drop

#12 Gene editing stocks smoked

#13 Recession probability rises

#14 Rivian deliveries fall 36%

#15 TSMC’s $100B pledge fails to convince

#16 r/Stocks Daily Discussion

#17 The AI trade is far from over

#18 Interesting Stocks Today

文章核心重點

目錄