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2025-04-02-rising

  • 精選方式: RISING

討論重點​

25篇討論重點條列總結（附錨點連結與逐條細節）​

1. 亞特蘭大聯儲GDP預測下修至-3.7%​

  • 重點：GDPNow模型預測劇烈波動（+3.9%→-3.7%），引發經濟前景質疑。
  • 細節：
    • 即時性模型公信力高，但短期波動被質疑過度反應。
    • 「經濟解放日」諷刺經濟惡化導致財富縮水。

2. 川普擬宣布新關稅​

  • 重點：新關稅可能衝擊全球市場，若低於預期或觸發反彈。
  • 細節：市場關注關稅範圍與「Liberation Day」象徵意義。

3. 賓士考慮退出美國入門車市場​

  • 重點：25%汽車關稅迫使賓士放棄低利潤車型。
  • 細節：反映貿易政策改變跨國企業佈局。

4. 美國擬對所有貿易夥伴課20%關稅​

  • 重點：全面關稅恐加劇通膨、抑制消費，投資者策略混亂。
  • 細節：企業供應鏈成本上升，SP500投資者進退兩難。

5. Newsmax上市首日暴漲700%​

  • 重點：保守派媒體受政治紅利推動，募資7,500萬美元。
  • 細節：股價收83.51美元，但收視仍落後Fox News。

6. 中日韓聯合反制美國關稅​

  • 重點：三國重啟經濟對話，應對貿易保護主義。
  • 細節：關稅壓力促成亞洲區域合作，歐盟態度未明。

7. 市場未充分反映新關稅風險​

  • 重點：第二波關稅（Tariffs 2.0）衝擊恐超預期。
  • 細節：首波關稅已定價，但更廣泛關稅可能引發波動。

8. 特斯拉歐洲銷量下滑​

  • 重點：法國Q1銷量年減36%，中國品牌市占反升。
  • 細節：比亞迪等未被單獨統計，但總市占達3.19%。

9. 美國職缺數據遭質疑美化​

  • 重點：官方四捨五入7.568M至7.6M，掩蓋經濟放緩。
  • 細節：ISM製造業PMI低於榮枯線，Wyckoff方法推測操縱。

10. Hims & Hers合作禮來推減重藥​

  • 重點：遠程醫療平臺銷售Zepbound，股價漲8.5%。
  • 細節：切入減重藥熱門市場（如Wegovy、Ozempic）。

11. 市場對關稅消息反應矛盾​

  • 重點：預期下跌卻反彈，凸顯情緒不可預測。
  • 細節：作者困惑是否常態化「每日瘋狂波動」。

12. 馬斯克政治爭議拖累特斯拉​

  • 重點：參與DOGE政府裁員計劃引發抵制，股價腰斬。
  • 細節：業務放緩（交付量降）與政治風險疊加。

13. 基因編輯股因政治因素暴跌​

  • 重點：CRSP、BEAM等股受RFK Jr.言論

文章核心重點​

以下是各篇文章的一句話摘要（條列式輸出）：

  1. 亞特蘭大聯儲GDP預測-3.7%：亞特蘭大聯儲GDPNow模型將美國GDP增長預測從+3.9%大幅下修至-3.7%，引發對經濟前景的質疑與模型準確性爭議。
  2. Liberation Day: 川普關稅政策：川普計劃宣布新一輪關稅，市場預期若力度低於預期可能引發反彈，但全球貿易緊張加劇。
  3. 賓士考慮撤出美國入門車款：因應美國25%汽車關稅，賓士評估停售低利潤入門車型以維持獲利能力。
  4. 川普擬對所有貿易夥伴課20%關稅：美國可能擴大關稅至所有貿易夥伴，引發對消費需求、企業成本及投資策略的連鎖衝擊。
  5. Newsmax上市首日暴漲700%：保守媒體Newsmax因政治紅利上市首日股價飆升，反映市場對其商業化的樂觀預期。
  6. 中日韓聯合回應美國關稅：三國重啟經濟對話並計劃協同應對美國關稅，顯示亞洲區域合作因外部壓力強化。
  7. 關稅2.0尚未被市場定價：分析警告新一輪更廣泛關稅的潛在衝擊未被市場充分反映，恐加劇波動。
  8. 特斯拉法國銷量跌至四年新低：特斯拉Q1在法銷量年減36%，市占被中國品牌侵蝕，反映歐洲市場競爭格局變化。
  9. 美國職缺數據遭質疑操縱：2月職缺數下修至7.6M，結合PMI萎縮，疑官方美化數據掩蓋經濟放緩跡象。
  10. Hims & Hers開售減重藥Zepbound：遠程醫療平台引入禮來減重藥推動股價漲8.5%，切入熱門藥物市場。
  11. WTF Happened Today?：市場對關稅消息反彈出乎預期，凸顯政治事件與短期價格波動的不可預測性。
  12. 馬斯克政治立場拖累特斯拉：馬斯克參與川普政府裁員計劃引發公眾抵制，加劇特斯拉股價與業務壓力。
  13. 基因編輯股暴跌爭議：政治風險導致CRSP等生物科技股超跌，引發「抄底機會vs.行業危機」辯論。
  14. 歐洲股市因關稅不確定性收跌：Stoxx 600指數月線下跌，反映投資者對美國關稅生效前的避險情緒。
  15. SPY創2022年Q3以來最差季度：標普500 Q1跌4.6%，升息與停滯性通脹隱憂打擊市場信心。
  16. 2025 Q1資產報酬與美元貶值：美元貶4%推升非美資產回報，美股跌而國際股債漲，凸顯匯率影響。
  17. 美股創2022年來最差季度：科技股領跌，納指重挫10.4%，關稅不確定性終結標普500連五季上漲。
  18. 短線交易候選股清單：聚焦訴訟（JNJ）、IPO泡沫（NMAX）、政策風險（MRNA）等事件驅動型交易機會。
  19. 特斯拉目標價遭Stifel下調：交付增長預期從17%砍至4%，股價跌5.3%，反映分析師看衰短期前景。
  20. 技術分析討論：強調價格已反映一切訊息，介紹指標與圖表形態作為短長期交易工具。
  21. 市場下跌後的價值機會：年輕投資者探討當前「打折」股市是否適合進場，兼論政治不確定性。
  22. 經紀人強制調整股票配置：投資者因現金比例過高遭施壓，考慮轉換低成本平台以維持策略自主性。
  23. 擇時進場策略難題：持有現金者糾結DCA、等待訊號或長期觀望，高利率加劇決策複雜度。
  24. 高盛上調美衰退機率至35%：川普關稅威脅與通膨壓力並存，GDP增長放緩至1%推升衰退風險。
  25. 個股投資佔淨資產比例：27歲投資者11%

目錄​

1. Atlanta Feds GDP estimate -3.7%​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的GDPNow模型對美國GDP增長預測的顯著下修，以及其引發的對經濟前景的質疑。重點包括：

  1. GDPNow預測的劇烈波動：
    數據顯示預測值在8週內從+3.9%驟降至-3.7%，反映經濟前景快速惡化，引發對「經濟預測為何嚴重失準」的困惑與批評。

  2. GDPNow模型的特點與公信力：

    • 即時性與透明度：模型隨新數據頻繁更新（每週多次），並公開方法論與數據組成，有別於傳統月度/季度預測。
    • 學界與市場認可：因其動態調整能力和歷史準確性，被視為實時經濟預測的權威指標。

  3. 經濟「解放日」的諷刺隱喻：
    文中提到「Liberation day」時機與GDP暴跌形成反差，暗指民眾可能因經濟衰退而面臨財富縮水（「從金錢中解放」），反映對政策或經濟治理的負面情緒。

  4. 爭議點：
    儘管模型技術嚴謹，但短期預測劇烈波動仍引發對「經濟是否實際惡化」或「模型是否過度反應」的辯論，需結合後續數據驗證。

結論：討論聚焦於GDPNow的預測變化所揭示的經濟不確定性，以及高頻數據模型在解讀宏觀趨勢中的優勢與潛在局限。

內容​

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Atlanta Feds GDP estimate

8 weeks ago it was +3.9%

4 weeks ago it was +2.3%

Last week it was -2.8%

Today it stands at -3.7%

How can we fuck up this bad? Liberation day is tomorrow too. We're going to be liberated from our money.

Edit. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is widely used and respected as a standard for real-time economic forecasting because of a few key reasons. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publicly shares the models methodology, updates, and the componen behind each estimate. Unlike most other forecas (which are updated monthly or quarterly), GDPNow is updated every time new relevant data is released, sometimes multiple times a week. Which is what just happened. It has a solid reputation for accuracy in estimating the direction and magnitude of GDP growth.

討論​

評論 1:

If you fail at 4 casinos, failing this bad should come as no surprise at all.

評論 2:

The US is gonna be liberated from the entire world tmrw.

評論 3:

Because half of the country can't stop watching and listening to right-wing infotainment.

They're drowning in lies and misinformation all day, every day, and they vote accordingly.

It's legitimately going to surprise a broad swath of this country when the economy ends up in a ditch, and they're also going to believe it when they're told it's Biden's fault.

All you can do is take the necessary precautions, because it's coming.

評論 4:

Can a conservative explain to me like Im 5 how this is a good thing?

All I can find is them saying shit like bout time and hard reset and Canada deserves it. Can we get into some fundamentals on any positive aspect of this?

評論 5:

Its crazy how all trump had to do was lie and take credit for the good part of bidens economy and it would have worked with the majority of the country. I dont understand this massive self inflicted gunshot wound

I know its a popular theory that hes doing this so his rich friends can swoop in and buy everything but lately i feel like thats giving him too much credit. I think its more likely that hes just stupid and theres no adult in the room to tell him not to, because this administration very obviously is making this up as they go along

2. Liberation Day: Trump prepares to announce new round of customs duties but promises to be nice​

The core discussion topic of the provided articles revolves around former U.S. President Donald Trump's anticipated announcement of new tariffs and their potential impact on international markets and economies. Key points include:

  1. Tariff Announcement: Trump is expected to impose a new wave of tariffs, possibly targeting specific countries or sectors, as part of his trade policy.
  2. Market Reactions: There is speculation about whether the tariffs will be "lighter than expected," which could lead to a sharp market rise (e.g., on "Liberation Day" in the U.S., possibly referring to Tax Day or a symbolic economic event).
  3. Global Economic Concerns: Countries and businesses worldwide are bracing for the potential disruption, as tariffs could strain trade relations and affect supply chains.

Your Question:​

If the announced tariffs are less severe than feared, markets might rally due to relief (a "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic). However, the actual impact depends on the scope and targets of the tariffs.

Note: The URLs appear truncated or corrupted (e.g., -unis` and -de-douane`). For a precise analysis, the full, correct links would be needed.

內容​

連結： [https://www.leparisien.fr/international/eta-unis/jour-de-la-liberation-trump-sapprete-a-annoncer-une-nouvelle-salve-de-droi-de-douane-mais-promet-detre-gentil-01-04-2025-STHG4ATJHRCPXEXBZD3TJ2IPWQ.php

https://www.rfi.fr/en/international-news/20250331-world-economies-brace-for-trump-tariffs-ahead-of-deadline

What do you think? The marke will sharply rise on their Liberation Day because it will be lighter than expected?](https://www.leparisien.fr/international/eta-unis/jour-de-la-liberation-trump-sapprete-a-annoncer-une-nouvelle-salve-de-droi```-de-douane-mais-promet-detre-gentil-01-04-2025-STHG4ATJHRCPXEXBZD3TJ2IPWQ.php

https://www.rfi.fr/en/international-news/20250331-world-economies-brace-for-trump-tariffs-ahead-of-deadline

What do you think? The marke``` will sharply rise on their Liberation Day because it will be lighter than expected?)

討論​

評論 1:

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評論 2:

Liberated from my future retirement, now free to work a back breaking factory job until the day I die with no union. Hell yeah, brother.

評論 3:

Liberated from adequate chips, car par```, and international good will.

評論 4:

Hes gonna leave himself a way out

He has no backbone

評論 5:

Sounds like typical abusive behaviour where you do horrid things but claim youre being nice to the abused.

3. Mercedes Weighs Pulling US Entry-Level Cars Over Tariffs​

這篇來自彭博社的文章核心討論主題是：梅賽德斯-賓士（Mercedes-Benz）因應美國前總統川普政府對進口汽車加徵25%關稅的政策，考慮停止在美國市場銷售入門級車型（如GLA SUV等），以避免關稅導致這些低利潤車型的銷售失去經濟可行性。

關鍵要點包括：

  1. 關稅衝擊：川普政府的25%汽車關稅迫使車商重新評估在美銷售策略，尤其影響利潤較薄的入門車款。
  2. 品牌調整：賓士可能縮減在美產品線，優先保留高利潤車型，以維持獲利能力。
  3. 市場不確定性：企業需因應政策變動制定應急計劃，反映貿易政策對全球汽車產業的深遠影響。

文章凸顯了「貿易保護主義政策如何改變跨國企業的市場佈局」，尤其對歐洲車商在美業務的潛在衝擊。

內容​

連結： [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/mercedes-weighs-pulling-us-entry-level-cars-over-trump-tariffs

> Mercedes-Benz Group AG is considering withdrawing i``` least expensive cars from the US because President Donald Trumps auto tariffs would likely make their sales economically unfeasible, according to people familiar with the matter. > > The German automaker is mulling cutting sales of more entry-level models like the small GLA sport utility vehicle as part of broader tariff contingency plans, the people said, declining to be identified because the deliberations are private. Trumps 25% duties are scheduled to take effect this week.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/mercedes-weighs-pulling-us-entry-level-cars-over-trump-tariffs

> Mercedes-Benz Group AG is considering withdrawing i``` least expensive cars from the US because President Donald Trumps auto tariffs would likely make their sales economically unfeasible, according to people familiar with the matter. > > The German automaker is mulling cutting sales of more entry-level models like the small GLA sport utility vehicle as part of broader tariff contingency plans, the people said, declining to be identified because the deliberations are private. Trumps 25% duties are scheduled to take effect this week.)

討論​

評論 1:

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評論 2:

It looks like the cheapest one is $43k before tariffs

評論 3:

So much winning

評論 4:

I was downvoted when I wrote that this would affect cheap cars and push manufacturers toward more expensive cars. Expensive cars are more profitable, and sell despite the price hike.

評論 5:

I figured this would happen. Foreign automakers are not going to move every single car to USA to get built. They will do a few popular models and the rest...well if you can afford a mercedes, you can afford the 25% tariff.

4. Trump to announce new 20% tariffs this week on every single US trading partner, not just the initial group of 10-15 countries prev. stated​

這篇文章的核心討論主題可以總結為以下幾點：

  1. 廣泛關稅的經濟影響：
    討論美國若對所有貿易夥伴實施全面20%關稅的潛在後果，包括對不同行業的衝擊（如製造業、消費品等），以及對企業成本（COGS）和利潤的影響。

  2. 消費者需求與經濟表現：
    探討在美國消費者需求本已疲軟的背景下，關稅是否會進一步抑制消費，並加劇經濟壓力。

  3. 投資策略的不確定性：
    聚焦投資者的困惑，例如是否應繼續投資SP500 ETF、如何調整投資組合（如定期定額買入或賣出），以及如何在政策不確定性下制定策略（退出市場或長期持有）。

  4. 企業營運與供應鏈挑戰：
    分析關稅對美國企業的影響，尤其是依賴海外生產的公司可能面臨成本上升的問題，進而影響其競爭力。

整體而言，文章圍繞「廣泛關稅政策對經濟、企業及個人投資決策的連鎖反應」展開，並強調市場參與者面臨的風險與不確定性。

內容​

What industries will this impact the most? Previous tariffs announcemen``` have been easy to understand what industries it will impact (for example auto tariffs, wine tariffs, etc.). What would a sweeping 20% tariff on virtually every single US trading partner mean for investing?

Will it lead to lower consumer demand in an already weak US consumer?

Will it lead to higher profi for US based companies? Don't most US companies manufacturer ouide of the US, so their operating cos```/COGS will increase?

Is anyone still buying SP500 ETFs, or have people begun to sell? Not sure what to do with my portfolio, or if I should dollar cost average buy vs. sell. If anyone can share how they are navigating this uncertainty - leaving the market completely or riding it out.

---

Sources

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-says-he-couldnt-care-less-if-car-prices-go-up-b9b4a211?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-third-term-tariffs-live-updates-b2724698.html

https://apnews.com/article/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-liberation-day-april-2-86639b7b6358af65e2cbad31f8c8ae2b

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affec``` the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

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評論 2:

I love how one man can do this to a country and no one can even get a straight answer on why he's doing this...

評論 3:

Nice! Thats really going to work out great for us broke consumers.

評論 4:

Every single trading partner? That's insane, RIP USA

評論 5:

he's trying to starve the US. Literally.

This is his revenge arc.

5. Conservative cable channel Newsmax spikes more than 700% in first trading day on NYSE​

這段文字的核心討論主題是：
保守派新聞媒體 Newsmax 的商業發展與市場表現，具體包括以下幾點：

  1. 收視率提升：因川普當選總統等政治因素帶動收視成長，但仍落後於主流保守媒體 Fox News。
  2. 資金籌措：透過發行股票募資 7,500 萬美元（每股 10 美元）。
  3. 股價表現：上市首日股價收盤達 83.51 美元，顯示市場對其價值的樂觀預期。

背景脈絡則涉及政治環境（共和黨執政）對保守媒體的影響，以及其進軍資本市場的動態。

內容​

The conservative TV news outlet has seen i``` ratings rise with the election of President Donald Trump and other prominent Republicans although it still falls behind the dominant Fox News. Newsmax raised $75 million through the sale of 7.5 million class B common shares at a price of $10 a share. The stock closed at $83.51 for the day.

[https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/newsmax-stock-star-trading-on-nyse.html?utm\_source=convertkit&utm\_medium=email&utm\_campaign=Market%20Bulle:%20Marke%20close%20out%20Q1%20in%20the%20red,%20Trump%20to%20unveil%20more%20tariffs,%20OpenAI%20closes%20$40B%20funding%20round%20-%2017124768](`https`://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/newsmax-stock-star-trading-on-nyse.html?utm_source=convertkit&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Market%20Bulle:%20Marke%20close%20out%20Q1%20in%20the%20red,%20Trump%20to%20unveil%20more%20tariffs,%20OpenAI%20closes%20$40B%20funding%20round%20-%2017124768)

討論​

評論 1:

$20B market cap, they did $155m revenue and lost $64m last year this might as well be a meme coin thats about to get the rug pulled.

評論 2:

This IPO is just mental. MAGA don't seem to be in on this, over on Truth Social they were caught off-guard and didn't even know it was happening. All the $DJT holders are salty af right now.

$20bn is a completely absurd valuation for $NMAX.

The company makes $171m in revenue, is unprofitable with an increasing $72m loss (losses were $41m the previous year) and has negative shareholder equity.

To put it in perspective:

$NMAX is more than double the valuation of The New York Times ($8bn), a company that makes $2.5bn in revenue and is profitable.

It's worth nearly as much as the Fox Corporation which generates $15.1bn in revenue and $2.4bn in profit.

The one thing I would say though, is that out of the other "MAGA stocks" $NMAX is the strongest, even though it still has shitty fundamentals that don't justify it's valuation.

$RUM for example makes $95m revenue, but doesn't even make gross profit. It literally just burns money, with it's cost of revenue being $138m and an overall loss of $338m.

$DJT unsurprisingly is the worst of the bunch, making a measly $3.6m (less than a busy McDonalds branch), and the company actually spent $6.3m more on marketing in 2024 than they did in 2023...only to make ~$500k less in revenue. Additionally the operational losses appear to be growing, latest was about $186m, up from $58m the previous year.

Wouldn't suprise me to see $NMAX absolutely tank in the coming days/weeks. It's already down 15% to $196/share in after hours trading. It's unclear who's actually buying this, some insiders probably got rich af and are about to unload their bags onto retail.

評論 3:

I tried to short but there were no shares available.

評論 4:

PT Barnum was right.

評論 5:

And then almost 200% the next day. That's a run from $14 to $233 in 2 days of trading. That's whiplash-inducing!

What level of current or future profit margins can support that?

6. America is going to get rocked. China, Japan, South Korea will jointly respond to US tariffs, Chinese state media says​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：
中國、日本和韓國在面對美國關稅壓力下，同意加強區域合作並聯合應對貿易挑戰。

具體要點包括：

  1. 三國經濟對話重啟：中國、日本和韓國時隔五年首次舉行經濟對話，旨在促進區域貿易合作，應對美國前總統特朗普可能實施的關稅政策。
  2. 聯合回應美國關稅：中國官方媒體（CCTV）報導稱，三國將共同應對美國的貿易限制措施，其他國際媒體（如彭博社、日經新聞等）也證實此合作趨勢。
  3. 區域團結對抗外部壓力：美國的關稅政策被視為推動三國加強經濟聯繫的關鍵因素，甚至可能促使亞洲盟友向中國靠攏。
  4. 歐盟尚未表態：文中提及歐盟（尤其是德國）可能後續跟進類似行動，但當前焦點在亞洲三國的聯合聲明。

補充背景：

內容​

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-japan-south-korea-will-jointly-respond-us-tariffs-chinese-state-media-says-2025-03-31/

BEIJING, March 31 (Reuters) - China, Japan and South Korea agreed to jointly respond to U.S. tariffs, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said on Monday.The commen``` came after the three countries held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, seeking to facilitate regional trade as the Asian powers brace against U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.

EU hasn't even clap back yet.

Edit. For those who say this is Chinese media, the other countries are not refuting this claim. China is taking the lead on this. For EU, I think Germany will take the lead on that.

Edit 2. Since there are many commen``` regarding this being Chinese propaganda, below are more links to prove that this isn't just coming from Chinese Media.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-30/china-japan-s-korea-renew-free-trade-call-vow-to-build-ties

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tariffs-pushing-asian-allies-toward-china-2052937

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250330-china-south-korea-and-japan-agree-to-strengthen-free-trade

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/03/30/japan-china-south-korea-trade-ministers/

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202503/1331179.shtml

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-war/Trump-s-threat-to-free-trade-brings-China-Japan-South-Korea-closer

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affec``` the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

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評論 2:

Trump is an incredible politician. Hes managed to unite the entire planet unfortunately the united front faces the United States.

Maybe he intends to use this to run for President of Earth next.

評論 3:

You totally fucked up if you did something so stupid that China, Japan and South Korea agree to do something jointly

評論 4:

Lol! Cant wait for the spin on this one. When Japan & SK do anything jointly with China, thats an anomaly and indicative of a bigger problem: trump & his policies.

評論 5:

The 3 countries historically never like each other and this orange man single-handedly reunited them with a common cause!

Trump the great unifier!

7. I personally think nobody alive even knows what to expect with tariffs​

這段文字的核心討論主題是：新一輪大規模關稅（Tariffs 2.0）尚未被市場充分反映（not priced in）。

具體要點包括：

  1. 目前市場分析僅涵蓋2018年「第一波關稅（Tariffs 1.0）」的影響，並延伸到現階段的「2.0關稅」，但未考慮即將到來的「第二波更廣泛關稅」。
  2. 若市場對第一波關稅的反應已符合預期，則第二波關稅（規模更大、範圍更廣）的潛在衝擊尚未被市場消化。
  3. 作者強調，新關稅的「全面性」（on literally everybody）和「指數級增長」（exponentially more）可能帶來未被預期的風險或波動。

整體而言，這是一段針對關稅政策升級與市場定價落差（market pricing gap）的警示性評論。

內容​

All these analyses I see market overlays for Tariffs 1.0 in 2018, to these 2.0 tariffs.

You know what it doesn't account for? The second wave of exponentially more tariffs tomorrow. Tariffs on literally everybody.

If we're on track generally with 1.0...... 2.0 is not priced in. The second wave of sweeping tariffs, is not priced in.

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affec``` the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddi```" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

評論 2:

I'm not even sure the lumber tariffs are priced in either. Homebuilder stocks have been tanking

評論 3:

The latest opportunity is just going to walk right by so many people.

評論 4:

I got powder ready to blast off on the dumpster fire sale that happens this week

評論 5:

Yup and if tried to point out the flaws I remember being called hysterical or a communist for pointing out the effec``` of smoot Hawley and the great depression.

Well it's back round 2 electric boogalo.

8. Tesla car sales in France, Sweden drop to lowest first-quarter in four years​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是 法國汽車市場的銷售下滑，尤其是特斯拉（Tesla）在該市場的表現衰退與中國電動車品牌的崛起。具體重點如下：

  1. 特斯拉在法國的銷售大幅下滑：

    • 3月銷量僅3,157輛，年減36.83%；第一季總銷量6,693輛，市占率降至1.63%。
    • 對比即將公布的第一季全球交付數據，凸顯法國市場的疲軟。

  2. 中國電動車品牌的擴張：

    • 比亞迪（BYD）等中國車商未被法國汽車協會（PFA）單獨統計，但其總市占率上升至3.19%，超越特斯拉。
    • 反映中國品牌在歐洲市場的競爭力增強。

  3. 法國整體汽車市場萎縮：

    • 3月新車註冊量年減14.54%，第一季累計下滑7.83%，顯示消費需求放緩或市場環境挑戰。

總結：文章聚焦於特斯拉在法國市場的失利、中國電動車品牌的市占擴張，以及法國汽車行業整體的銷售衰退趨勢。

內容​

連結： [https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/france-car-registrations-down-1454-march-tesla-sales-fall-3683-2025-04-01/

Tesla registered in March 3,157 car sales in France, a 36.83% drop from last year, for a total of 6,693 car registrations in the first quarter, data from French car body PFA showed.

I``` market share in the country dropped to 1.63% in the quarter ending March, and lost ground to brands not accounted for by the PFA, including BYD (002594.SZ) and other Chinese EV makers, whose total share of the market rose to 3.19%.

Overall new car registrations in France fell 14.54% in March and were down 7.83% in the first quarter.

Tesla is set to report i``` global first-quarter deliveries and production numbers on Wednesday.](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/france-car-registrations-down-1454-march-tesla-sales-fall-3683-2025-04-01/

Tesla registered in March 3,157 car sales in France, a 36.83% drop from last year, for a total of 6,693 car registrations in the first quarter, data from French car body PFA showed.

I``` market share in the country dropped to 1.63% in the quarter ending March, and lost ground to brands not accounted for by the PFA, including BYD (002594.SZ) and other Chinese EV makers, whose total share of the market rose to 3.19%.

Overall new car registrations in France fell 14.54% in March and were down 7.83% in the first quarter.

Tesla is set to report i``` global first-quarter deliveries and production numbers on Wednesday.)

討論​

評論 1:

Registrations in Sweden for Mars:

Model Y: down 61.9% compared to last year, to 767 cars.

Model 3: down 70.6% to 131 cars.

Model X: only 2 registered.

Model S: only 1 registered.

Total number of registered cars in Sweden for Mars: 24 024 cars, an increase of 1% compared to Mars 2024.

https://www.svd.se/a/yEr2zr/tvarnit-for-tesla-pa-svenska-marknaden?utm_source=androidapp&utm_medium=share

評論 2:

TSLA stock is green. Sad

評論 3:

Those numbers are comically low. How is Tesla a one trillion dollar company? lol

評論 4:

Do you all hate Musk or Tesla cars?

評論 5:

How many pos``` about tesla sales numbers does this sub require per week? Seems the quota must be pretty high.

9. Is this market manipulation? February US job openings slip to 7.6M, consistent with a healthy but decelerating job market​

这篇文章的核心討論主題可以總結為以下幾點：

  1. 美國勞動市場數據的爭議：
    文章質疑美國2月份職位空缺數據（7.568百萬）的呈現方式，指出官方刻意四捨五入至7.6百萬，以淡化實際數據低於預期（7.63百萬）和前值（7.762百萬）的負面影響，暗示可能存在「市場操縱」或美化。

  2. 經濟放緩的跡象：
    作者引用ISM製造業PMI（49，低於榮枯線50）佐證美國經濟正在收縮，認為職位空缺下降與製造業活動萎縮共同反映經濟疲軟，但媒體報導卻未充分凸顯問題。

  3. Wyckoff方法與市場操縱的觀點：
    從技術分析角度（Wyckoff方法）推測，媒體可能透過選擇性呈現數據為「聰明錢」（smart money）創造出場機會，隱藏真實經濟風險，引導散戶投資者誤判情勢。

關鍵爭議：官方數據的透明度與媒體敘事是否掩蓋經濟隱憂，並為特定市場參與者謀利。

內容​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/february-us-job-openings-slip-140647040.html

Interesting market manipulation. Last month was 7.762 mil. It was expected to be 7.63 mil. The actual number was 7.568 mil. It was lower than expected, but they specifically picked the rounding to hit 7.6 mil.

This is just my opinion regarding the Wyckoff method, but I think the media is trying to create an exit for smart money. These numbers are not good. ISM Manufacturing PMI is 49 which means our economy is contracting.

討論​

評論 1:

Anything that surprises you isnt market manipulation, no.

評論 2:

>Is this market manipulation?

No.

評論 3:

That is how rounding works, but this is the worst job market in over a decade, since the GFC. I don't think all the cut jobs from Fed and Fed fallout have hit... and Tariff insanity hasn't flowed yet. I have already seen the jobs market collapsed.

評論 4:

They didnt pick the rounding lol

評論 5:

These things can be modeled. If you doubt the numbers, then calculate it yourself. Lo``` of private entities do this. Prove it I say.

10. Hims & Hers to sell Lilly's Zepbound on i telehealth platform \{#10-hims-hers-to-sell-lilly-s-zepbound-on-i-tele}​

這則新聞的核心討論主題是：
遠程醫療公司 Hims & Hers Health 宣布將在其平臺上銷售禮來公司（Eli Lilly）的減重藥物 Zepbound，此消息帶動該公司股價上漲 8.5%。

關鍵點包括：

  1. 商業合作：Hims & Hers 擴大業務範圍，涉足減重藥物市場。
  2. 市場反應：投資者看好此舉，推動股價顯著上漲。
  3. 行業趨勢：反映遠程醫療與製藥公司的整合趨勢，以及減重藥物的市場熱度（如 Zepbound 同類藥物 Wegovy、Ozempic 近年的需求激增）。

簡而言之，新聞聚焦於企業策略動向及其對股價的立即影響。

內容​

(Reuters) -Telehealth firm Hims & Hers Health said on Monday it plans to sell Eli Lilly's weight-loss drug Zepbound on i``` platform.

Shares of the company were up 8.5% in afternoon trading.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hims-hers-sell-lillys-zepbound-173933245.html

討論​

評論 1:

Worth mentioning as well that Zepbound has had price decreases that compete more closely with the compounded GLP-1s and generally make it easier for people to buy without insurance.

They offer an alternative to the self injecting pens, allowing patien``` to inject from a vial (like the compounded versions). Doses up to 10mg, which is pretty high, are $500 a month.

If Lilly embraces cheaper Zepbound in the states, I think they will have massive earnings in the coming years. Historically medication is expensive and it's easy to secure profi``` that way but the demand for these drugs are so high, it might actually make more sense to sell them cheaper and get more customers.

I'm VERY bullish on GLP-1s and the space in general and very curious about what the future holds as mass adoption picks up.

Orforglipron, a GLP-1 developed by Lilly in pill form, is another potential game-changer on the horizon. Telehealth companies would eat that up. Also, compounding is coming to an end so Lilly will not have to compete directly with those pharmacies much longer (unfortunately for those on the meds, that was a VERY cheap way of securing them).

評論 2:

Up 10% on the news.

評論 3:

Ah yes, more pills instead of diet and exercise. Classic America.

11. WTF Happened Today?​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：市場對政治新聞（如關稅政策）的反應與波動性。

作者表達了以下重點：

  1. 預期與現實的落差：原本預期市場會因總統宣布提高關稅的消息而表現低迷，但開盤大跌後卻強勢反彈。
  2. 對市場波動的困惑：質疑自己是否忽略了某些因素，或當前市場是否已進入「每日瘋狂波動」的常態。

本質上，作者在探討 市場情緒的不可預測性 以及 政治事件對短期價格走勢的複雜影響。

內容​

I anticipated the market to have a rough day after all the news from the current prez on increased tariffs over the weekend. The marke``` were way down at opening and then roared back. Did I miss something or is it all insane every frigging day now?

討論​

評論 1:

> I anticipated the market to...

There's your first mistake.

評論 2:

"Sometimes she goes, sometimes she doesn't. Cuz that's the fuckin way she goes."

評論 3:

First it went down. Then it went up.

評論 4:

You don't know shit.

Welcome to the club!

評論 5:

Few reasons.

Last day of quarter. Everything is oversold. Tom Lee said words.

12. Elon Musk says backlash against his DOGE government cu``` is hurting Tesla stock​

这篇文章的核心討論主題是：特斯拉CEO埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）參與政治活動（特別是與特朗普政府合作推動政府裁員計劃「DOGE」）引發公眾不滿，可能對特斯拉股價造成負面影響，並加劇公司面臨的業務挑戰。

具體要點包括：

  1. 政治立場引發爭議：

    • 馬斯克參與特朗普政府的「政府效率部門」（DOGE），推動大規模裁減公職人員，引發公眾反彈。
    • 抗議者襲擊特斯拉門店及車輛，顯示其政治行動可能損害品牌形象。

  2. 特斯拉股價下跌：

    • 馬斯克坦言，政治爭議導致特斯拉股價較高點下跌約一半，並認為這是外界施壓的手段。
    • 投資機構下調特斯拉目標價和銷售預期，反映市場對其業務與政治關聯的擔憂。

  3. 業務放緩的雙重壓力：

    • 特斯拉核心業務表現疲軟（如2024年交付量下降、歐洲市場銷售下滑），加劇投資者疑慮。
    • 美國汽車業整體面臨關稅威脅和供應鏈不確定性，但馬斯克的政治角色被視為特斯拉額外的負面因素。

  4. 馬斯克的政治野心與風險：

    • 他積極參與政治活動（如支持保守派候選人、在社交媒體X上頻繁評論時政），可能分散其對特斯拉經營的專注度。

總結：文章探討馬斯克的政治參與如何與特斯拉的股價下跌、公眾抵制及業務困境相互關聯，凸顯其個人政治立場對企業造成的潛在風險。

內容​

TeslaCEO Elon Musk said Sunday that his involvement in the Trump administration could be hurting the automakers stock price.

Speaking at a town hall event in Wisconsin, Musk said his role with the so-called Department of Government Efficiency which is pushing for widespread government job cu``` is creating backlash against his electric car company and hurting the stock.

What theyre trying to do is put massive pressure on me, and Tesla I guess, to ... stop doing this, Musk said, according toBloomberg News. My Tesla stock and the stock of everyone who holds Tesla has gone, went roughly in half. I mean its a big deal.

Shares of Tesla entered Monday already down more than 34% year to date, and the stock has been cut nearly in half from i``` peak in December. Shares were down an additional 6% in premarket trading Monday.

The drop for the stock could be a buying opportunity for the long term, said Musk, who was in Wisconsin ahead of a state supreme court election there. Musk has campaigned for the conservative candidate andspent more than $12 millionon the race, in addition to giving $1 million each to two voters at Sundays rally for signing a petition against activist judges.

The slumping stock isnt the only sign of public anger with Musk for his political work.Protestersdemonstrated at Tesla dealerships over the weekend, and there have been repor``` of vandalism against vehicles and dealers across the country.

Musks role in politics is not limited to DOGE. He publicly campaigned with Trump in 2024 and has been a regular presence at the White House since the new administration took over in January. He also regularly commen``` on many different political topics on X, the social media company he owns.

The CEOs rising political profile comes amid signs that Teslas core business is slowing. The automakers vehicledeliveries declined in 2024, and preliminary data has shown thatsales are down againearly this year, especially in Europe. In a note to clien Sunday, investment firm Stifeltrimmed i price targeton the stock and lowered i``` sales projections for Tesla.

Musks political dealings may not be the only reason for Teslas struggles. OtherU.S. auto stockshave also labored in recent weeks, partly because of threa``` of higher tariffs on imported goods into the U.S. and retaliation from overseas trading partners, adding uncertainty to an industry whose supply chains are tightly woven among the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

Source: Elon Musk says backlash against DOGE government cu hur Tesla stock

討論​

評論 1:

I like that he takes no personal responsibility for anything. Like his seig heil has nothing to do with most of Europe not buying his cars...

評論 2:

His involvement "could be" hurting it? Yeah...there's no doubt here Elon. It IS the reason, along with your other shitty actions as a terrible human being. I hope it falls drastically from here.

評論 3:

The dude is completely delusional. The stock jumped after the election on hopes of corruption helping TSLA. It did not so it fell back to pre election levels.

Additionally, sales around the world are down significantly, and no improvement is in sight as global competition hea``` up.

評論 4:

It's his attack on democracy which is hurting his businesses.

評論 5:

Wawawaaaaaaaaaa. Empathy is a weakness remember.

13. Though on gene editing stocks? Getting smoked \{#13-though-on-gene-editing-stocks-getting-smoked}​

这篇文章的核心讨论主题是：

近期基因编辑生物科技股（如 $CRSP、$BEAM、$NTLA 等）因政治因素（如 RFK Jr. 的言论及政府官员变动）股价暴跌，是否已过度反映负面预期，以及当前是否具备长期投资价值或抄底机会。

具体分析要点包括：

  1. 股价暴跌原因：政治不确定性（如 RFK Jr. 的反生物技术立场、联邦政府相关官员离职）导致市场恐慌性抛售。
  2. 行业基本面：基因编辑技术仍被视为生物科技领域最具创新性和长期潜力的方向之一。
  3. 投资争议：
    • 悲观观点：政治风险可能持续压制行业前景，甚至导致企业破产。
    • 乐观观点：当前股价可能已超跌，提供“抄底”机会，尤其看好技术长期潜力。
  4. 关键问题：在特朗普或 RFK Jr. 可能执政的背景下，这类股票是否已无投资价值，抑或是市场情绪错杀后的机会。

总结：文章聚焦于政治风险与生物科技股估值之间的冲突，探讨投资者应如何权衡短期风险与长期技术潜力。

內容​

Stocks such as $CRSP, $BEAM, $NTLA, just to name a few, have been getting absolutely destroyed, partially due to RFK jr. and I think another important member within the federal government related to bio recently stepped down.

These are starting to look like they are getting priced for bankruptcy, and is arguably one of the most innovative tech in the sector to this day with great longer term promise.

Are these a lost cause under RFK and Trump? Or could they be worth bottom fishing

討論​

評論 1:

Welcome to r/stocks!

For stock recommendations please see our portfolio sticky, sort by hot, it's the first sticky, or see past portfolio stickies here.

For beginner advice, brokerage info, book recommendations, even advanced topics and more, please read our Wiki here.

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Also include some due diligence to this post or it may be removed if it's low effort.

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評論 2:

Im planning on buying more, particularly CRSP.

Gene editing will undoubtedly be a big player in the future of medicine. Also, CRSP has been a favorite of mine to trade. It tanks, then spikes on big news.

Andpriced for bankruptcy? Check your sources. CRSP is sitting on almost $2 billion in cash. More than enough to ride out a few tough years.

評論 3:

They have been crap way before Trump. The only reason the price went up so high was due to QE during Covid.

評論 4:

They could be decades away from clinical use

評論 5:

IOVA is also doing terrible. And they have a product in the market, approvals lined up. I wonder why no Big Pharma or Biotech company is just buying them.

14. Europe stocks close lower, cementing March loss as tariff uncertainty persis```​

該文章的核心討論主題是：
歐洲股市因美國關稅政策的不確定性而大幅下跌，具體聚焦於以下幾點：

  1. 市場反應：歐洲主要指數（如Stoxx 600）顯著下挫，全月收跌，反映投資者對貿易緊張局勢的擔憂。
  2. 原因分析：美國總統川普的關稅政策即將生效，導致全球市場避險情緒升溫。
  3. 影響範圍：幾乎所有行業和歐洲主要交易所均受波及，凸顯政策對跨國經濟的衝擊。

簡言之，文章探討了「貿易政策風險如何引發歐洲金融市場動盪」。

內容​

[https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/european-marke-live-updates-stock-moves-tariff-news-and-data-.html](`https`://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/european-marke-live-updates-stock-moves-tariff-news-and-data-.html)

European marke``` traded sharply lower on Monday as global investors braced for U.S. President Donald Trumps trade tariffs to come into force.

The regional Stoxx 600 index closed 1.51% lower, with nearly all sectors and major bourses firmly in negative territory. The final trading day of March marks the Stoxx 600s first losing month of the year, with a loss of nearly 3%, according to LSEG data.

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affec``` the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddi```" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

評論 2:

And today eurostoxx up +1.10% . What a beautiful crash will be 2th with market closed as schedules tariff press 12AM. Loaded all in pu``` of different companies that went slightly green today. 3th will be purple day in Europe. And to finish the week EU tariffs on US tech...

評論 3:

The market doesnt actually care much about tariffs or all the other macro FUD that Reddit has been parroting over the past 2 years of raging bull market

15. $SPY dropped 4.6% in the first quarter, booking i``` worst quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2022​

这篇文章的核心討論主題是 2022年第三季度金融市場的動盪，主要圍繞以下幾個重點：

  1. 市場下跌與聯準會政策：

    • 股票和債券市場因聯準會（Fed）為抑制高通脹而大幅升息，導致雙雙暴跌（根據FactSet數據）。

  2. 個股表現分化：

    • 部分股票（如$TSCO、$WHR、$PG、$AIFU）在通脹中逆勢上漲，但許多其他股票（如$BYND、$WRD）大幅下跌。

  3. 市場情緒與經濟衰退風險：

    • 儘管有觀點認為「市場信心低迷時是買入時機」（因歷史低點常伴隨經濟衰退後的股票低估值），但策略師（Macquarie）指出當前情況尚未符合此條件，因經濟尚未真正進入衰退。

  4. 停滯性通脹（Stagflation）隱憂：

    • 通脹預期居高不下，同時消費者對就業安全的信心快速下滑，形成「停滯性通脹」的混合風險，使聯準會在應對經濟放緩時更加棘手。

總結：文章探討通脹、升息與市場波動的關聯，並警告當前環境可能隱含停滯性通脹風險，需謹慎看待市場反彈的樂觀預期。

內容​

The third quarter of 2022 the year both stocks and bonds both plunged as the Fed battled surging inflation with higher interest rates, according to FactSet data.

Some stocks experienced slight surge during inflation such as $TSCO, $WHR, $PG, $AIFU, while many others like $BYND, $WRD plummet.

Some bulls might tell us that it is a good time to buy stocks when confidence ielf is near i lows, as it seems to be now, the Macquarie strategis``` said. But thats because historical lows in consumer sentiment have historically been seen when the economy has already fallen into a recession and the drop in stock prices has resulted in meaningfully low valuations.

But thats not the case yet, the strategis``` noted.

The other reason for caution now is that inflation expectations are sticky at a time when consumer expectations about job security is falling fast, they wrote. Thats a stagflationary mix that makes the Feds job of responding to a weakening growth outlook much more complicated.

討論​

評論 1:

I'd be more concerned about the long-term impact of a +25-100% consumption tax on the average American and foreign nations rebalancing trade without the US than SPY's performance over 3 months.

Moreover, tariffs are sticky. They've always been marketed as patriotic, and pushed by lobbies and unions, so politicians are reluctant to take them down. The low/middle class is in for a ride, and it's not going to end at the next election.

評論 2:

Considering the run up at the start of the quarter, this worse than 4.6%.

評論 3:

We gonna have a tremendous boom. Boomtown.

評論 4:

Dca to retirement or ruin boys

評論 5:

You guys realize there's not really an accurate way to fortune tell this unless you know someone in the administration? Even then I'm not sure if they even know how this is going to go. Because if deal making star``` happening relatively soon, everyone who went to cash is going to be frantically buying

If the negativity continues on and the tariffs actually get into the price of things, that definitely could get ugly. It's just hard to do imagine going that way because it would be throwing away the midterms. You wouldn't see the effec until later on this year, s&p 500 would probably be down around 20%. Really negative setup and what's the reason behind it exactly? I get trying to drive interest rates down. I get forcing the fed to lower rates. That's all going to happen within the next 3 to 6 months. You're going to have rising unemployment and GDP falling apart. If it happens quickly enough you won't even have the inflationary impac of the tariffs

16. 2025 Q1 asset class returns & new valuations​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是 2025年第一季主要資產類別的名目美元報酬率（含股息再投資）及其影響因素，具體涵蓋以下重點：

  1. 各資產類別表現

    • 美國股市（VTI）下跌（-4.8%），非美國股市（VXUS）上漲（+5.7%），美國債券（BND）溫和成長（+2.8%）。
    • 平衡型基金如全球股票（VT）和股債混合組合（VSMGX）的報酬率差異，反映資產配置的效果。

  2. 美元貶值的影響

    • 美元指數（DXY）季度下跌約4%，推升非美國資產以美元計價的回報（匯率換算效應）。

  3. 通膨與估值數據

    • 累計通膨率（CPI-U）為1.1%，提供名目報酬與實質報酬的對照基準。
    • 估值指標變化：
      • 美股（VTI）本益比上升（26.1x→收益率3.8%），非美股（VXUS）本益比微幅變動（15.6x→收益率6.4%）。
      • 債券（BND）到期收益率維持4.6%，顯示利率環境穩定。

總結：文章透過數據分析2025年Q1全球金融市場表現，探討資產報酬、匯率波動（美元弱勢）及估值變化的互動關係，並提供通膨背景下的投資情境解讀。

內容​

The total returns (including reinvested dividends) in nominal (before-inflation) USD terms of core asset classes during the first quarter of 2025 were:

|Asset Class|Nominal USD Return|

|:-|:-|

|US stocks [via VTI]|-4.8%|

|Ex-US stocks [via VXUS]|+5.7%|

|US total bond market [via BND]|+2.8%|

For some blended / balanced funds:

|Fund|Nominal USD Return|

|:-|:-|

|Global stocks [via VT]|-1.0%|

|60/40 global stocks / bonds [via VSMGX]|+0.2%|

A weaker USD was a contributor to the return of ex-US stocks in USD terms. The USD ended the quarter down about 4% relative to a basket of other currencies (source), increasing the USD value of ex-US stocks denominated in other currencies that strengthened against the USD.

Cumulative CPI-U inflation across the 3 months through February was 1.1% (source).

Valuation metrics as of 3/31/2025:

  1. VTI trailing P/E ratio: 26.1x (source) => trailing earnings yield: 3.8% [from 27.5x / 3.6% at the start of the quarter/year]

  2. VXUS trailing P/E ratio: 15.6x (source) => trailing earnings yield: 6.4% [from 15.4x / 6.5% at the start of the quarter/year]

  3. BND yield to maturity: 4.6% (source) [unchanged from the start of the quarter/year]

討論​

無討論內容

17. Stocks close out their worst quarter since 2022 amid tariff uncertainty​

这篇文章的核心讨论主題是 美國三大股市指數在2025年第一季度出現大幅下跌，並分析其背後的原因與影響。具體重點包括：

  1. 股市表現不佳

    • 標普500指數下跌超過4.5%，科技股為主的納斯達克指數暴跌10.4%，道瓊工業平均指數下跌1.3%，創下自2023年10月以來首次連續月度下跌。
    • 標普500和納斯達克指數創下自2022年（俄烏戰爭衝擊全球經濟）以來最差的季度表現。

  2. 下跌的主要因素

    • 關稅政策的不確定性：美國總統特朗普即將宣布新一輪廣泛關稅，加劇了貿易政策的動盪，導致投資者觀望。
    • 科技巨頭市值縮水：包括亞馬遜、蘋果、微軟等在內的「科技七巨頭」（Magnificent 7）總市值自年初以來損失超過2兆美元。

  3. 市場修正與歷史比較

    • 標普500一度進入「修正區間」（較前期高點下跌10%），最終創下自2022年12月以來最嚴重的月度跌幅。
    • 此次下跌結束了標普500連續五個季度的上漲趨勢，納斯達克指數更抹去去年過半漲幅。

總結：文章聚焦於美國股市的劇烈下跌，並將原因歸咎於關稅政策的不確定性及科技股暴跌，同時與2022年俄烏戰爭時的市場震盪進行對比。

內容​

Two of the three major U.S. stock indexes just wrapped up their worst quarter in well over two years. The third barely avoided the same fate.

The S&P 500 dropped more than 4.5% for the first quarter of 2025 as of Mondays close, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plummeted 10.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 1.3% lower and recorded i``` first back-to-back monthly loss since October 2023.

The declines on all three indexes come days before President Donald Trump is set to unveil a new slate of wide-ranging tariffs, extending ongoing trade policy turmoil that has kept investors guessing for months.

The broad-based S&P 500 fell briefly into correction territory Monday, meaning a 10% slide from i last high. The index regained some ground late in the day, but not enough to dodge i worst monthly percentage drop since December 2022.

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Marke```

Stocks close out their worst quarter since 2022 amid tariff uncertainty

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq logged their worst performance since Russias invasion of Ukraine slammed into the global economy.

Get more news

on

Savewith a NBCUniversal Profile

March 31, 2025, 5:25 PM EDT

By Steve Kopack

Two of the three major U.S. stock indexes just wrapped up their worst quarter in well over two years. The third barely avoided the same fate.

The S&P 500 dropped more than 4.5% for the first quarter of 2025 as of Mondays close, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plummeted 10.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 1.3% lower and recorded i``` first back-to-back monthly loss since October 2023.

ADVERTISING

The declines on all three indexes come days before President Donald Trump is set to unveil a new slate of wide-ranging tariffs, extending ongoing trade policy turmoil that has kept investors guessing for months.

The broad-based S&P 500 fell briefly into correction territory Monday, meaning a 10% slide from i last high. The index regained some ground late in the day, but not enough to dodge i worst monthly percentage drop since December 2022.

The indexs first-quarter stumbles ended a streak of five straight winning quarters, while the Nasdaq wiped out more than half of last years gains over the last three months. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta, known on Wall Street as the magnificent 7, have lost more than $2 trillion in market value collectively since the start of the year.

The last time U.S. marke``` stumbled as badly was in the middle of 2022 after Russias late-February invasion of Ukraine, shocking the global economy as Western nations hit Moscow with severe sanctions and commodities like oil and grains shot up in price.

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affec``` the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddi```" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

評論 2:

How will this affect GTA 6s legacy

評論 3:

You guys ate looking at the wrong thing:

YTD Eurostoxx index up 11%, China broad index up 19%, China major tech up 26%.

Everybody knows the performance of a company is tied to the quality if the top management. Same is true for a country.

America voted for a dummy CEO with a track record of bankrupting casinos. So US performance is as expected.

評論 4:

Dont worry itll start out Q2 strong -8%

評論 5:

Trump admin scoring own goals and unforced errors

18. Interesting Stocks Today (04/1)​

这篇文章的核心討論主題是「短線交易候選股的每日觀察清單與市場動向分析」，重點如下：

  1. 短線交易策略
    作者強調清單中的股票僅為「潛在短期交易標的」，不涉及長期投資觀點，關注的是當日可能出現的價格波動機會。

  2. 個股事件驅動分析
    針對四檔股票提出關鍵新聞與技術面觀察：

    • JNJ：因破產法院第三次駁回滑石粉訴訟和解案，可能引發股價波動，關注暴跌後的抄底機會。
    • NMAX：IPO首日暴漲700%後，計劃在$130附近做空，因類似DJT（前身為Trump Media）的泡沫化模式。
    • MRNA/NVAX：FDA疫苗部門主管辭職與大規模裁員可能延緩藥品審批，延續前一日跌勢，關注$26（MRNA）與$6（NVAX）關鍵位。
    • LYV：行政命令打擊黃牛對股價影響有限，需等待後續政策具體行動。

  3. 新聞敏感度優先
    反覆強調「當日新聞驅動價格波動」的核心邏輯，例如FDA人事變動、政策變化、訴訟進展等，其他基本面因素被視為次要。

  4. 彈性交易框架
    清單僅為參考，實際操作可能包含未列標的，反映短線交易的高度情境依賴特性。

總結：文章聚焦於「利用突發新聞與技術位階篩選短線交易機會」，呈現事件驅動型（event-driven）的交易思維。

內容​

This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investmen```. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.

News: US Health Agency Mass Firings Begin As Kennedy Orders 10,000 Cut

JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)- A U.S. bankruptcy judge rejected JNJ's $10B proposal to settle thousands of lawsui alleging that i talc-based produc``` cause ovarian cancer. This is the THIRD time the company's bankruptcy strategy has been blocked in court. JNJ has always moved significantly off these updates (first and second rejections were in 2021/2022 because it means they have to pay out billions), overall not too interested in a short, but maybe a long if we sell off significantly- we always recover from these types of moves.

NMAX (NMAX)- NMAX experienced a surge of over 700% in the IPO yesterday, shares are currently above $100 (from an initial IPO opening of ~$15). This is similar to DJT all those years back (which was renamed), more interested in a short around $130. Worth noting $100 was the level yesterday afterhours and we sold off from there, broke it today. There's usually a pop in these conservative news outle``` when they IPO, mainly interested in the short today.

MRNA (Moderna)- Dr. Peter Marks, head of the FDA's vaccine program, has resigned, citing conflic``` with RFK Jr. Also, 10K FDA employees were fired today. Read through from this is all actions done through FDA will be far, far slower because of all the employees fired, so these pharma/biotech companies will potentially move far slower as well.

We saw pretty big moves in MRNA and NVAX yesterday (7% move in MRNA!!) , we may see continuation of the selloff today due to the new news of the FDA employees. Watching the $6 in NVAX, and $26 in MRNA.

LYV (Live Nation Entertainment)- Trump signed an executive order aimed to fight ticket scalping. LYV saw a small selloff in afterhours yesterday, other than that, don't expect any massive move until further action is taken (the wheels on this will turn slowly). We've seen a decently sized move following the report in February ($157->$112) where an investment firm released a report saying that they'd likely have to divest Ticketmaster to continue operations (or face regulatory actions).

討論​

評論 1:

Someone suggested to me that the Newmax rise might be the oligarchs taking shares. Anyone else think this is likely? (I have no opinion)

Other than that Tesla is up 4.5ish %. And no good economic numbers this morning.

Oh, wanted to add that French Power Cos``` hit Zero as their system was flooded by solar. Nice to know that some countries have their shit together.

評論 2:

$ENGS- Energys Group Announces Pricing of $10.125 Million Initial Public Offering and Nasdaq Listing

評論 3:

Assumming that people against science and common sense like RFK Jr won't be in the governnent forever, would MRNA and other US health labs be interesting long term stocks, right?

Genuinely asking and interested in everyones views.

19. Tesla shares drop as Stifel slashes PT and delivery forecas```​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：特斯拉（Tesla）股價因Stifel下調目標價和交付量預測而大幅下跌。具體要點包括：

  1. 股價下跌：特斯拉股價在盤前交易中下跌5.3%，主因是Stifel下調其評級與目標價。
  2. 目標價與交付預測下調：Stifel將目標價從474美元降至455美元，並大幅下調2025年交付量增長預期（從17%降至4%）。
  3. 負面因素：
    • 新款Model Y（Juniper）的推出進展。
    • 市場對執行長馬斯克（Elon Musk）的負面情緒升溫。

整體聚焦於分析師看衰特斯拉前景導致市場信心動搖的短期衝擊。

內容​

連結： [https://grafa.com/news/auto-and-cars-tesla-shares-drop-as-stifel-slashes-pt-and-delivery-forecas```-410607

Shares of electric vehicle giant Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) fell 5.3% to $249.6 in premarket trading on Monday, following a downgrade from Stifel.

The brokerage cut i price target on Tesla stock from $474 to $455 and significantly lowered i full-year 2025 delivery forecast from 17% growth to just 4%.

Stifel cited the rollout of the new Model Y (Juniper) and growing negative sentiment toward CEO Elon Musk as key factors impacting the companys outlook.

](https://grafa.com/news/auto-and-cars-tesla-shares-drop-as-stifel-slashes-pt-and-delivery-forecas```-410607

Shares of electric vehicle giant Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) fell 5.3% to $249.6 in premarket trading on Monday, following a downgrade from Stifel.

The brokerage cut i price target on Tesla stock from $474 to $455 and significantly lowered i full-year 2025 delivery forecast from 17% growth to just 4%.

Stifel cited the rollout of the new Model Y (Juniper) and growing negative sentiment toward CEO Elon Musk as key factors impacting the companys outlook.

)

討論​

評論 1:

Still a brain dead price target of $455

評論 2:

Change in PT: -4%

Change in Growth Estimate: -76% (From 17% to 4%)

Make it make sense.

評論 3:

To anyone that didn't read the "downgrade", it's a complete joke. Still has a $455 PT and projecting 4% growth.

Unreal. Just part of the sham.

評論 4:

"...forecast from 17% growth to just 4%." thus far. Maybe pissing off the world and entering politic is bad for business... who would have saw that coming?

評論 5:

Still to high for what it's worth. Musk is too polarizing.

20. r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Apr 01, 2025​

这篇文章的核心討論主題是「技術分析」（Technical Analysis, TA），主要內容包括：

  1. 技術分析的定義與用途

    • 透過歷史價格、即時數據、數學/統計指標及圖表，分析證券的走勢。
    • 解讀其他市場參與者的行為並預測其動向。
    • 強調「價格反映一切」（priced in），即所有新聞、市場情緒和基本面變化均已體現在價格中。

  2. 適用範圍與工具

    • 適用於任何時間框架（短線或長線交易）。
    • 介紹常用技術指標（如RSI、MACD、移動平均線等）及圖表形態（如K線、趨勢線、支撐/阻力位）。
    • 提供學習資源（如Stockcharts.com的入門指南）。

  3. 輔助工具與延伸討論

    • 推薦實用網站（Finviz、Bloomberg、StreetInsider）以獲取市場新聞與數據。
    • 連結過往相關討論（技術分析週二、期權週四、基本面週五等主題）。

總結：文章旨在引導讀者探討技術分析的方法與應用，並提供相關資源供進一步學習，同時允許非技術分析愛好者參與其他股票相關討論。

內容​

This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on technical analysis (TA), but if TA is not your thing then just ignore the theme.

Some helpful day to day links, including news:

Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movemen, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and char; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participan``` and predict their actions.

The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.

TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term.

Intro to technical analysis by Stockchar charchool and their article on candlesticks

If you have questions, please see the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

Indicator - Trade Signals - Lagging Indicator - Leading Indicator - Oversold - Overbought - Divergence - Whipsaw - Resistance - Support - Breakout/Breakdown - Aler - Trend line - Market Participan - Moving average - RSI - VWAP - MACD - ATR - Bollinger Bands - Ichimoku clouds - Methods - Trend Following - Fading - Channels - Patterns - Pivo```

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

討論​

評論 1:

I just want liberation day to be over

評論 2:

From WSJ.

"President Trumps economic team is preparing a new tariff option for him in the waning hours before his April 2 trade policy announcement, according to people with knowledge of the discussion"

People's livelihoods all over the world are on the line, they're just winging it the night before like a college assignment.

評論 3:

This admin man.

>Commerce Secretary indicates he could withhold Chips Act gran```, Bloomberg says

> Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has indicated he could withhold promised gran part of the Chips Act as he pushes companies set for federal semiconductor subsidies to expand their US projec, Mackenzie Hawkins and Ian King of Bloomberg repor```, citing people familiar with the matter.

> Lutnick's goal is to generate tens of billions of dollars in additional semiconductor investment commitmen without increasing the size of the federal gran, Bloomberg's sources added. Publicly traded companies in the space include AMD (AMD), Marvell (MRVL), Microchip (MCHP), Micron (MU), Nvidia (NVDA), Qualcomm (QCOM), TSMC (TSM), and Texas Instrumen``` (TXN).

評論 4:

This is from Joe Weisenthal, one of the hos of Odd Lo:

>One of the ugliest, most stagflationary ISM-manufacturing repor``` we've seen in a long time.

>Wrote about it for the Odd Lo newsletter. Virtually all the commen are complaining about tariffs, and the only categories that are going up are prices and inventories.

評論 5:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -3.7 percent on April 1, down from -2.8 percent on March 28.

> The alternative model forecast, which adjus for impor and expor of gold as described here, is -1.4 percent. After this mornings construction spending report from the US Census Bureau and incorporation of the available March data into the models dynamic factor model, including manufacturing data from Institute for Supply Management and measures of consumer attitudes from two surveys, both the standard models and the alternative models forecas of first-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth declined from 1.5 percent to 0.4 percent.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

21. Bloody red market, bloody good prices? Or not yet?​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：在當前市場下跌的背景下，尋找具有反彈潛力的價值投資機會。

具體要點包括：

  1. 市場現狀：作者認為當前市場價格相比去年10-11月有所下跌，呈現「打折」狀態，可能是進場時機。
  2. 投資策略：討論是否應立即買入股票（尤其是被低估的標的），或繼續等待更佳時機。
  3. 個人背景：作者年輕（25-26歲），剛累積一筆初始投資資金，希望趁市場低點開始投資。
  4. 不確定性因素：提到美國政治（川普相關動向）可能對市場的影響，但未明確其關聯性。

整體而言，這是一篇尋求投資建議的討論，聚焦於「市場下跌後如何選擇價值標的」以及「擇時問題」。

內容​

As Trump rolls out another level of whatever the hell he's doing, what are some good value plays right now? Everything is on a sale of sor```, at least compared to October/November. Who will have the hardest rebounds? I've been cash gang for a few months now and I feel as though I'm nearly ready to make stock purchases. Or perhaps we wait another month or two. I'm 25, nearly 26 and would love to get started now that I finally have some amount of starting investment money, and the market has been wiped a bit.

討論​

評論 1:

To put things in perspective S&P is down like 7% YTD

評論 2:

Think of it this way.

Most of Trump policies (moronic I might add) have not showed up in the data/repor``` just yet.

What do you think is gonna happen to the US stock market when inflation is confirmed to go up thanks to all these tariffs ?

If you wanna go shopping for deals, come back in 4-6 months after the extent of the damage is felt by the market.

評論 3:

Hmm I'm gonna wait until the orange monster declares war with our allies first.

評論 4:

I think it's interesting because people constantly want the market to go on sale, but every time it goes on sale, you basically hear the exact same commen and sentiment that things are going to get worse, and a lot of these people end up just sitting on the sidelines. The market is being sold off in part because we don't have clarity on what's going to happen in the future, and obviously the market doesn't like that that lack of clarity. But at some point we will have clarity, and that could be as soon as this week. I don't know what these tariffs will look like, but imagine that it comes out and a lot of what people thought was going to happen ends up not happening. How does that change the market? I mean, I don't think we're going to go back to the highs we had in mid-February this year, but you could see a massive turnaround on the market and a lot of stuff that's oversold could quite quickly get re-rated to a more appropriate price, such as Google and Amazon. Personally, I'm just going to DCA with every extra dollar I have over the course of this year. If things get cheaper, then great - I'll buy stuff even on greater sales. I just believe that by continuing to invest through this entire market of uncertainty, I will come out on the other side doing much better. I just don't believe in timing the market, and even though the market is down only 7% YTD, there are par of the market that are down much, much more - like 20-30%. And these companies, if they get any cheaper, are just going to be like the most brain-dead steals you've ever seen.

評論 5:

I reckon wait, even just a few days.

Trump is announcing major Tariffs on Thursday, literally calling it Liberation Day and I think this week itll move low. Thats when I would probably strike if I was looking to get in. Remember, this month in general is shaping up to be a bit of a bloodbath.

But at the very least - wait until the end of this week. Prices arent bad to buy in, but theyll be even better if you wait another 72 hours

22. Broker Forcing Equities​

這篇文章的核心討論主題可以總結為以下幾點：

  1. 投資組合現金比例過高：
    作者目前持有40%的現金（存放在收益率約2.5%的貨幣市場基金中），但經紀人認為這違反了某些規則，要求他在下個月前增加股票投資比例。

  2. 對現有經紀服務的疑慮：
    作者目前支付的年費為投資組合價值的1%（約2700美元），雖可無限次交易，但開始質疑此費用結構是否合理，尤其是考慮到自己的投資策略近年來持續跑贏大市（包括市場下跌時）。

  3. 考慮轉換至線上交易平台：
    由於對現有經紀服務的成本和限制不滿，作者考慮轉向更低成本的線上交易平台，並詢問適合加拿大居民的選擇建議。

核心問題：
是否應調整投資組合以符合經紀人的要求，以及是否該轉換至更靈活、低成本的線上交易平台以延續其成功的投資策略。

內容​

Hi Everyone,

I received a phone call today from my broker stating that Im carrying too much money in cash and that I need to invest more money in equities by the end of next month.

I currently have the cash sitting in money market fund making around 2.5% and Im about 40% in cash.

This is apparently against the rules. I like the current offering as I can make as many trades as I want for around $2700 per year which is 1% of the portfolio value.

Im wondering if it is time to switch to online trading as the strategies that I have been using have lead me to best the market and by an increasing margin over the last couple of years including this year when the market is down.

Any advice would be appreciated. I live in Canada so I would need a trading platform that is available here.

討論​

評論 1:

Which broker is this?

Regardless, switch to IBKR.

評論 2:

Yea, Id ditch this broker. You should be able to keep as large of a percentage of your portfolio in cash as you deem appropriate. I use IBKR and I know they pay around 4% on any cash in your account.

評論 3:

Yeah. Move elsewhere. Sounds like you are trying to be pushed to commission based transactions. They are in it for them, not you

評論 4:

The sec actually checks WMs cash balances as too much cash signals to them a possible breach of duty. Your broker could use written correspondence from you requesting an unusually high cash reserve. Not sure if its the same regulatory situation in Canada.

I expect theyre likely right that youre wrong to have so much cash. Ask about more uncorrelated investmen``` if youre worried about equities.

Edit: is it possible youre in breach of your deal with them as they dont count cash as managed and they have a minimum AUM?

評論 5:

How many transactions are you even making that 1% fees on your portfolio is even close to a fair deal? Are you daytrading?

23. Those of you who cashed out at the beginning of the year, whats your strategy for buying back in?​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：投資者在市場波動和高利率環境下的投資策略選擇。

具體探討以下幾個問題：

  1. 市場時機的挑戰：指出「擇時」的困難，即使投資者在1月持有現金，仍需面對何時重新進場的難題。
  2. 進場策略的選擇：
    • 是否採用「下跌時分批買入」（DCA, Dollar-Cost Averaging）？
    • 是否等待市場復甦信號（但依賴後見之明）？
    • 是否選擇長期觀望（如一年以上）？
  3. 高利率環境的影響：無風險報酬率（如4%的定存）在市場波動時對投資者的吸引力，可能導致資金停泊於保守選項。

總結來說，文章聚焦於投資者如何在「不確定性」與「機會成本」之間權衡，並選擇適合自身風險偏好的策略。

內容​

Timing the market is tough, and for those who loaded up on cash in January, you got half the puzzle right. Whats your approach to buying back in? DCA on the way down? Have you already begun? Wait until the recovery begins, which only hindsight can indicate. Or, are you just sitting out a year or more? With interest rates still high, its tough to pass up no-risk 4% when the market is so volatile.

討論​

評論 1:

Probably not until the tariff bs is over, my guess is june

評論 2:

I won't feel comfortable until Trump is literally not influencing wall street.

評論 3:

Cashed out a lot once Trump took office, just a gut feeling that with a new administration and policies it would create uncertainty. I didn't expect the market to go down as much as it has but damn I am happy I got out. Going to stay on the sideline. Enjoying making easy money per month with the no risk 4.2% in SGOV. I'll get back in once tariffs tensions are over, which may not be for awhile, and there is a positive outlook for the economy, inflation and unemployment. Right now everything is looking negative for the foreseeable future. If you see any rally in the marke```, take that as a sign to get out, like we did about a week ago, rallied back up to 18k on the Nasdaq, good time to sell, only to fall back under 17k this morning. It's volatile, and I am all about preserving my capital at this time. Not risking it with all the unknown and uncertainty. I'll pass.

評論 4:

Waiting until at least summer or fall probably

評論 5:

I have no faith in the current us admin. They are a collection of amateur businessmen who have grifted their entire lives. The memecoin bullshit is a perfect example. Wont be buying us equities again until there are massive changes.

24. Goldman Sachs hikes probability of US recession to 35% amid Trump tariff jitters​

这篇文章的核心討論主題是：美國經濟衰退風險上升及其潛在原因，具體包括以下重點：

  1. 經濟衰退風險提高：高盛（Goldman Sachs）將美國經濟衰退機率上調至35%，引發擔憂。
  2. 關稅政策的潛在衝擊：特朗普提議對所有貿易夥伴課徵15%關稅，可能導致全球經濟混亂，包括物價上漲、供應鏈中斷及國際關係緊張。
  3. 通膨與經濟放緩：預期2025年通膨率將達3.5%，加劇生活成本壓力；同時GDP增長率可能放緩至1%，顯示經濟動能減弱。
  4. 結論：若趨勢持續，經濟衰退不僅是可能，甚至「很可能」發生。

整體聚焦於外部政策風險（關稅）與內部經濟指標（通膨、GDP）惡化，如何共同推升衰退可能性。

內容​

Goldman Sachs bumping the recession risk up to 35% is pretty alarmingand honestly, it feels like a sign of whats coming. Trumps talk of 15% tariffs on all trading partners could throw the global economy into chaos. Were talking higher prices, disrupted supply chains, and strained international relationships. On top of that, inflation is expected to hit 3.5% by the end of 2025, which means everyday stuff is going to get even more expensive. And with GDP growth now expected to slow to just 1%, it really feels like the economy is losing steam. If things keep heading in this direction, a recession isnt just possibleits likely.

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/goldman-sachs-hikes-probability-of-us-recession-to-35-amid-trump-tariff-jitters-3956253

討論​

評論 1:

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評論 2:

35 percent? Optimistic.

評論 3:

Since Reagan every republican president has put us into a recession, started preparing last November.

評論 4:

Is it funny or sad that some people still believe tariffs are good for America and they're still eating everything up that Trump says?

評論 5:

Trump will definitely get USA into recession everyone get ready for bad time to come.. pray God that we all survived this bad time

25. What % of your net worth are in individual stocks?​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是個人財務配置與投資策略的合理性評估。

具體重點包括：

  1. 資產分配現狀：

    • 退休帳戶（401K、Roth IRA）以指數基金為主，符合長期被動投資策略。
    • 短期資金存放於貨幣市場基金（VUSXX），因應近期大額支出需求。
    • 個股投資涵蓋藍籌股、成長股與高風險標的，但比例相對較低（佔總資產約11%）。

  2. 投資策略與疑慮：

    • 作者認同「長期難以跑贏大盤」的觀念，因此主力配置指數基金，但仍保留部分個股以主動投資。
    • 計劃在市場下跌時加碼個股，同時持續最大化退休帳戶供款，詢問此配置是否典型或過度集中風險。

  3. 潛在討論方向：

    • 個股比例是否適當（尤其對無房無家庭負擔者）。
    • 貨幣市場基金的高額短期配置合理性。
    • 如何平衡被動投資與主動選股的策略衝突。

總結：作者尋求對其財務配置的優化建議，核心在於評估「指數化投資為主、個股為輔」的策略是否符合其年齡（27歲）與風險承受能力。

內容​

Hey all,

Looking to get some feedback on where Im keeping all my money. Feel free to remove if not allowed. Background - 27M, dont own a home yet, no kids

150K - 401K through work in index funds

50K - Roth IRA brokerage account in index funds

40K - VUSXX money market fund. way more than usual as I have some big life even``` coming up and didnt want too much in stocks 25K - individual stocks which is split up into roughly 40% blue-chip stocks like MSFT/GOOGL, 40% solid growth stocks like AXON, SE, MELI and 20% more speculative picks like RKLB

This is the bulk of it. If the market continues to go down I plan on continuing to buy more individual stocks and will keep maxing out my Roth and contributing to 401K. Is this pretty typical for a portfolio? Mostly dont want to be too much in individual stocks as I know its hard to beat the market over the long term. Thanks all!

討論​

評論 1:

About 85%, but Im probably an outlier.

評論 2:

I got like 20% in a start-up

評論 3:

Less than 2%

評論 4:

I had to calculate it but its only about 10%.

Its funny how much time I end up worried about what only amoun to about 10% of my asse.

評論 5:

5%

總體討論重點

25篇討論重點條列總結（附錨點連結與逐條細節）​

1. 亞特蘭大聯儲GDP預測下修至-3.7%​

  • 重點：GDPNow模型預測劇烈波動（+3.9%→-3.7%），引發經濟前景質疑。
  • 細節：
    • 即時性模型公信力高，但短期波動被質疑過度反應。
    • 「經濟解放日」諷刺經濟惡化導致財富縮水。

2. 川普擬宣布新關稅​

  • 重點：新關稅可能衝擊全球市場，若低於預期或觸發反彈。
  • 細節：市場關注關稅範圍與「Liberation Day」象徵意義。

3. 賓士考慮退出美國入門車市場​

  • 重點：25%汽車關稅迫使賓士放棄低利潤車型。
  • 細節：反映貿易政策改變跨國企業佈局。

4. 美國擬對所有貿易夥伴課20%關稅​

  • 重點：全面關稅恐加劇通膨、抑制消費，投資者策略混亂。
  • 細節：企業供應鏈成本上升，SP500投資者進退兩難。

5. Newsmax上市首日暴漲700%​

  • 重點：保守派媒體受政治紅利推動，募資7,500萬美元。
  • 細節：股價收83.51美元，但收視仍落後Fox News。

6. 中日韓聯合反制美國關稅​

  • 重點：三國重啟經濟對話，應對貿易保護主義。
  • 細節：關稅壓力促成亞洲區域合作，歐盟態度未明。

7. 市場未充分反映新關稅風險​

  • 重點：第二波關稅（Tariffs 2.0）衝擊恐超預期。
  • 細節：首波關稅已定價，但更廣泛關稅可能引發波動。

8. 特斯拉歐洲銷量下滑​

  • 重點：法國Q1銷量年減36%，中國品牌市占反升。
  • 細節：比亞迪等未被單獨統計，但總市占達3.19%。

9. 美國職缺數據遭質疑美化​

  • 重點：官方四捨五入7.568M至7.6M，掩蓋經濟放緩。
  • 細節：ISM製造業PMI低於榮枯線，Wyckoff方法推測操縱。

10. Hims & Hers合作禮來推減重藥​

  • 重點：遠程醫療平臺銷售Zepbound，股價漲8.5%。
  • 細節：切入減重藥熱門市場（如Wegovy、Ozempic）。

11. 市場對關稅消息反應矛盾​

  • 重點：預期下跌卻反彈，凸顯情緒不可預測。
  • 細節：作者困惑是否常態化「每日瘋狂波動」。

12. 馬斯克政治爭議拖累特斯拉​

  • 重點：參與DOGE政府裁員計劃引發抵制，股價腰斬。
  • 細節：業務放緩（交付量降）與政治風險疊加。

13. 基因編輯股因政治因素暴跌​

  • 重點：CRSP、BEAM等股受RFK Jr.言論