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2025-04-01-rising

抓取設定​

  • 排序方式: RISING

討論重點​

25篇討論重點條列式總結​

1. 廣泛關稅的經濟影響 1​

  • 重點：美國擬對所有貿易夥伴課徵20%關稅，衝擊依賴進口的產業（如汽車、電子）。
  • 細節：
    • 企業成本（COGS）上升，利潤受壓縮。
    • 供應鏈重組可能引發通脹與市場波動。

2. 市場對政治消息的反應矛盾 2​

  • 重點：關稅消息後市場先跌後反彈，反映情緒不可預測。
  • 細節：
    • 投資者對政策與市場脫鉤現象感到困惑。

3. 中、日、韓聯合反制美國關稅 3​

  • 重點：亞洲三國協調行動，減少對美市場依賴。
  • 細節：
    • 推動區域自由貿易，加速供應鏈重組。

4. 馬斯克政治立場拖累特斯拉股價 4​

  • 重點：馬斯克參與政府削減計劃引發公眾抵制。
  • 細節：
    • 特斯拉股價年內跌34%，業務放緩加劇壓力。

5. 2022Q3市場動盪與聯準會政策 5​

  • 重點：升息環境下股債雙跌，停滯性通膨風險浮現。
  • 細節：
    • 消費者信心下滑，但未達歷史低點。

6. 特斯拉目標價與交付量遭下調 6​

  • 重點：Stifel將2025年交付增長預期從17%砍至4%。
  • 細節：
    • 股價盤前跌5.3%，反映市場對執行力疑慮。

7. 市場低位布局策略 7​

  • 重點：投資者觀望是否進場撿便宜。
  • 細節：
    • 關注反彈潛力強的標的（如科技、消費）。

8. 2025Q1美股創兩年最差表現 8​

  • 重點：標普跌4.5%、納指暴跌10.4%，關稅不確定性為主因。
  • 細節：
    • 科技巨頭市值蒸發2兆美元。

9. 擇時投資的困境 9​

  • 重點：持有現金者面臨重新進場時機難題。
  • 細節：
    • 討論分批買入（DCA）vs. 等待復甦訊號。

10. 高盛上調美國衰退機率至35% 10​

  • 重點：關稅政策恐加劇通脹與經濟放緩。
  • 細節：
    • GDP成長率預測下修至1%。

11. 個人投資組合配置合理性 11​

  • 重點：年輕投資者檢視個股占比過高風險。
  • 細節：
    • 尋求指數基金與主動選股的平衡。

12. 川普關稅計畫的財政爭議 12​

  • 重點：政府稱關稅可增6兆美元收入，專家質疑可行性。
  • 細節：
    • 成本恐轉嫁消費者，實際稅收低於預期。

13. 比亞迪威脅特斯拉市場地位 13​

文章核心重點​

以下是各篇文章的一句話摘要（條列式輸出）：

  1. Trump to announce new 20% tariffs...
    美國計劃對所有貿易夥伴徵收20%關稅，恐衝擊企業成本、消費需求及投資市場。

  2. WTF Happened Today?
    市場對關稅消息反應矛盾，開盤大跌後反彈，反映投資者對政策不確定性的困惑。

  3. America is going to get rocked...
    中、日、韓將聯合反制美國關稅，亞洲供應鏈重組加速。

  4. Elon Musk says backlash...
    馬斯克政治立場引發特斯拉股價下跌，業務放緩與關稅壓力加劇困境。

  5. $SPY dropped 4.6%...
    標普500創2022年後最差單季表現，升息與通膨黏性成主因。

  6. Tesla shares drop...
    Stifel下調特斯拉目標價與交付預期，股價盤前跌逾5%。

  7. Bloody red market...
    投資者探討市場下跌是否創造布局機會，關注具反彈潛力標的。

  8. Stocks close out their worst quarter...
    關稅不確定性導致美股創2022年來最慘季度，科技股市值蒸發2兆美元。

  9. Those who cashed out...
    投資者討論「擇時再進場」策略困境，權衡分批買入與等待訊號的利弊。

  10. Goldman Sachs hikes recession probability...
    高盛上調美國衰退機率至35%，關稅與通膨為關鍵風險。

  11. What % of your net worth...
    年輕投資者檢視個股配置比例，尋求風險與長期成長的平衡建議。

  12. Trump aide says tariffs...
    白宮稱新關稅十年可創6兆美元收入，經濟學家質疑成本轉嫁消費者。

  13. Why is Tesla Worth Anything?
    比亞迪性價比威脅特斯拉主導地位，關稅延緩但難阻長期競爭劣勢。

  14. Trump says he 'couldn't care less'...
    川普無視汽車關稅推升價格，稱政策目標是刺激本土購車。

  15. Where does everyone get their news...
    投資者不滿Seeking Alpha付費牆，尋求替代財經資訊平台。

  16. The most accurate indicator I know...
    VIX指數被視為市場恐慌訊號，高波動時逆向布局策略受推崇。

  17. Why is my cost per share...
    Robinhood稅務批次顯示成本異常，用戶困惑實際損益計算邏輯。

  18. US Economy estimated to shrink...
    美國Q1經濟萎縮0.5%，停滯性通膨風險浮現。

  19. Those holding cash instead of DCAing...
    新手探討持有現金動機，釐清擇時與風險管理差異。

  20. All CEO trades for Tsla Pltr...
    自建工具揭露企業高層隱匿股票操作，批SEC數據不透明。

  21. Trump officials anxious about tariffs...
    川普關稅政策方向不明，團隊與市場同陷不確定性。

  22. FT Exclusive: Accenture...
    政府砍顧問合約衝擊德勤等企業，節省目標遭疑計算不實。

  23. How is EBITDA a good indication...
    討論EBITDA與淨利潤孰更能反映企業真實盈利。

  24. Genuine hypothetical question...
    非美投資者憂特朗普拒交權衝擊市場，籲正視民主倒退風險。

  25. r/Stocks Daily Discussion...
    股市每日討論串整合工具資源與分眾主題，優化投資交流。

目錄​

1. Trump to announce new 20% tariffs this week on every single US trading partner, not just the initial group of 10-15 countries prev. stated​

核心討論主題總結​

  1. 廣泛關稅的經濟影響：

    • 探討美國若對所有貿易夥伴實施20%的全面關稅，將對哪些產業造成最大衝擊（相較於過去針對特定產業的關稅，如汽車、葡萄酒等）。
    • 對美國企業的潛在影響：多數美國企業依賴海外製造，關稅可能提高其成本（COGS），進而影響利潤。

  2. 消費者需求與經濟擔憂：

    • 在美國消費力已疲軟的背景下，關稅可能導致物價上漲，進一步抑制消費需求。

  3. 投資策略的不確定性：

    • 投資者對市場反應的困惑，尤其是標普500指數ETF的買賣決策（應繼續定期定額投資、減持，或退出市場）。
    • 尋求其他投資者如何應對政策不確定性的經驗分享。

關鍵問題​

  • 關稅的廣泛性使影響難以預測，可能引發供應鏈重組、通脹壓力及企業獲利波動。
  • 投資者需權衡關稅對市場的短期衝擊與長期布局策略。

資料來源均涉及美國前總統川普提出的「全面互惠關稅」政策及其潛在經濟效應。

內容​

What industries will this impact the most? Previous tariffs announcements have been easy to understand what industries it will impact (for example auto tariffs, wine tariffs, etc.). What would a sweeping 20% tariff on virtually every single US trading partner mean for investing?

Will it lead to lower consumer demand in an already weak US consumer?

Will it lead to higher profits for US based companies? Don't most US companies manufacturer outside of the US, so their operating costs/COGS will increase?

Is anyone still buying SP500 ETFs, or have people begun to sell? Not sure what to do with my portfolio, or if I should dollar cost average buy vs. sell. If anyone can share how they are navigating this uncertainty - leaving the market completely or riding it out.

---

Sources

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/trump-says-reciprocal-tariffs-will-target-all-countries-2025-

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-third-term-tariffs-live-updates-b2724698.html

https://apnews.com/article/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-liberation-day-april-2-86639b7b6358af65e2cbad31f8c8ae2b

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

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評論 2:

Every single trading partner? That's insane, RIP USA

評論 3:

Nice! That’s really going to work out great for us broke consumers.

評論 4:

“I’m going to keep punching myself in the dick, take that, the rest of the world!” - Trump

評論 5:

he's trying to starve the US. Literally.

This is his revenge arc.

2. WTF Happened Today?​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：市場對政治消息（如關稅政策）的反應與波動性。

作者表達了以下重點：

  1. 預期與現實的落差：原本預期市場會因總統宣布提高關稅的消息而表現疲軟，但開盤大跌後卻強勢反彈。
  2. 對市場不可預測性的困惑：質疑自己是否忽略了某些因素，或感嘆當前市場每日劇烈波動的荒謬性（"insane every frigging day"）。

整體而言，文章反映了投資者對「政治決策如何影響市場」的不確定性，以及對市場情緒快速變化的無奈。

內容​

I anticipated the market to have a rough day after all the news from the current prez on increased tariffs over the weekend. The markets were way down at opening and then roared back. Did I miss something or is it all insane every frigging day now?

討論​

評論 1:

"Sometimes she goes, sometimes she doesn't. Cuz that's the fuckin way she goes."

評論 2:

First it went down. Then it went up.

評論 3:

You don't know shit.

Welcome to the club!

評論 4:

Few reasons.

Last day of quarter. Everything is oversold. Tom Lee said words.

評論 5:

I anticipated the market to...

There's your first mistake.

3. America is going to get rocked. China, Japan, South Korea will jointly respond to US tariffs, Chinese state media says​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：中國、日本和南韓在美國關稅政策壓力下，達成合作共識以共同應對貿易挑戰。具體要點如下：

  1. 三國聯合回應美國關稅：
    中、日、韓在時隔五年後首次舉行經濟對話，同意協調行動，應對美國總統川普政府可能實施的關稅措施，以維護區域貿易利益。

  2. 背景與動機：
    美國的貿易保護主義政策（如威脅提高關稅）促使亞洲三大經濟體加強合作，試圖減少對美國市場的依賴，並推動區域內自由貿易。

  3. 消息來源與可信度：
    最初由中國官媒（CCTV旗下平台）報導，但後續多家國際媒體（如彭博社、日經新聞、法國24台等）也證實了三國強化經貿合作的立場，顯示並非僅為中國單方面宣傳。

  4. 歐盟的潛在角色：
    文中提及歐盟尚未對美國關稅作出明確回應，但暗示未來可能由德國主導類似協調行動，顯示全球貿易陣營可能因美國政策而重組。

  5. 區域經濟整合趨勢：
    三方對話強調促進自由貿易，反映美國關稅威脅反而加速了亞洲國家之間的經濟連結，可能重塑全球供應鏈格局。

總結：文章聚焦於美國貿易政策如何促使中、日、韓擱置分歧，轉向合作，並凸顯全球貿易體系因保護主義升溫而面臨的結構性變化。

內容​

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-japan-south-korea-will-jointly-respond-us-tariffs-chinese-state-media-says-2025-03-31/

BEIJING, March 31 (Reuters) - China, Japan and South Korea agreed to jointly respond to U.S. tariffs, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said on Monday.The comments came after the three countries held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, seeking to facilitate regional trade as the Asian export powers brace against U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.

EU hasn't even clap back yet.

Edit. For those who say this is Chinese media, the other countries are not refuting this claim. China is taking the lead on this. For EU, I think Germany will take the lead on that.

Edit 2. Since there are many comments regarding this being Chinese propaganda, below are more links to prove that this isn't just coming from Chinese Media.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-30/china-japan-s-korea-renew-free-trade-call-vow-to-build-ties

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tariffs-pushing-asian-allies-toward-china-2052937

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250330-china-south-korea-and-japan-agree-to-strengthen-free-trade

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/03/30/japan-china-south-korea-trade-ministers/

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202503/1331179.shtml

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-war/Trump-s-threat-to-free-trade-brings-China-Japan-South-Korea-closer

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affects the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddits" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

評論 2:

The 3 countries historically never like each other and this orange man single-handedly reunited them with a common cause! 

Trump the great unifier! 

評論 3:

You totally fucked up if you did something so stupid that China, Japan and South Korea agree to do something jointly

評論 4:

Trump is an incredible politician. He’s managed to unite the entire planet… unfortunately the united front faces the United States.

Maybe he intends to use this to run for President of Earth next.

評論 5:

Lol! Can’t wait for the spin on this one. When Japan & SK do anything jointly with China, that’s an anomaly and indicative of a bigger problem: trump & his policies.

4. Elon Musk says backlash against his DOGE government cuts is hurting Tesla stock​

这篇文章的核心討論主題是：
特斯拉（Tesla）股價下跌與其CEO伊隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）的政治參與之間的關聯性。

具體要點包括：

  1. 馬斯克的政治活動引發反彈：

    • 馬斯克參與特朗普政府推動的「政府效率部門」（DOGE）計劃（主張大幅削減政府職位），導致公眾對特斯拉的負面情緒，可能影響公司股價。
    • 抗議者甚至在特斯拉門店示威，並有破壞車輛的報告。

  2. 特斯拉股價大幅下跌：

    • 特斯拉股價從2024年12月高點下跌近一半，2025年年初至今跌幅超過34%。
    • 馬斯克認為這是市場對其政治立場的施壓，但也稱長期可能是「買入機會」。

  3. 業務放緩與多重因素影響：

    • 特斯拉核心業務表現疲軟，2024年交付量下降，2025年初銷售（尤其歐洲）持續下滑。
    • 投資機構下調目標股價和銷售預期。
    • 其他外部因素（如美國關稅政策、全球供應鏈不確定性）也拖累汽車類股。

  4. 馬斯克的政治形象強化：

    • 他公開支持特朗普、參與選舉活動（如威斯康辛州最高法院競選），並透過社交媒體平台X頻繁發表政治觀點，進一步將個人政治立場與特斯拉品牌綁定。

結論：文章探討馬斯克日益高調的政治角色如何加劇特斯拉面臨的挑戰，包括市場信心動搖、公眾抵制及業務壓力，並分析其他可能影響股價的內外部因素。

內容​

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said Sunday that his involvement in the Trump administration could be hurting the automaker’s stock price.

Speaking at a town hall event in Wisconsin, Musk said his role with the so-called Department of Government Efficiency — which is pushing for widespread government job cuts — is creating backlash against his electric car company and hurting the stock.

“What they’re trying to do is put massive pressure on me, and Tesla I guess, to ... stop doing this,” Musk said, according to Bloomberg News. “My Tesla stock and the stock of everyone who holds Tesla has gone, went roughly in half. I mean it’s a big deal.”

Shares of Tesla entered Monday already down more than 34% year to date, and the stock has been cut nearly in half from its peak in December. Shares were down an additional 6% in premarket trading Monday.

The drop for the stock could be a “buying opportunity” for the long term, said Musk, who was in Wisconsin ahead of a state supreme court election there. Musk has campaigned for the conservative candidate and spent more than $12 million on the race, in addition to giving $1 million each to two voters at Sunday’s rally for signing a petition against “activist judges.”

The slumping stock isn’t the only sign of public anger with Musk for his political work. Protesters demonstrated at Tesla dealerships over the weekend, and there have been reports of vandalism against vehicles and dealers across the country.

Musk’s role in politics is not limited to DOGE. He publicly campaigned with Trump in 2024 and has been a regular presence at the White House since the new administration took over in January. He also regularly comments on many different political topics on X, the social media company he owns.

The CEO’s rising political profile comes amid signs that Tesla’s core business is slowing. The automaker’s vehicle deliveries declined in 2024, and preliminary data has shown that sales are down again early this year, especially in Europe. In a note to clients Sunday, investment firm Stifel trimmed its price target on the stock and lowered its sales projections for Tesla.

Musk’s political dealings may not be the only reason for Tesla’s struggles. Other U.S. auto stocks have also labored in recent weeks, partly because of threats of higher tariffs on imported goods into the U.S. and retaliation from overseas trading partners, adding uncertainty to an industry whose supply chains are tightly woven among the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

Source: Elon Musk says backlash against DOGE government cuts hurts Tesla stock

討論​

評論 1:

His involvement "could be" hurting it? Yeah...there's no doubt here Elon. It IS the reason, along with your other shitty actions as a terrible human being. I hope it falls drastically from here.

評論 2:

I like that he takes no personal responsibility for anything. Like his seig heil has nothing to do with most of Europe not buying his cars...

評論 3:

It's his attack on democracy which is hurting his businesses.

評論 4:

The dude is completely delusional. The stock jumped after the election on hopes of corruption helping TSLA. It did not so it fell back to pre election levels.

Additionally, sales around the world are down significantly, and no improvement is in sight as global competition heats up.

評論 5:

Good

5. $SPY dropped 4.6% in the first quarter, booking its worst quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2022​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是 2022年第三季度金融市場的動盪，主要聚焦於以下幾點：

  1. 市場表現與聯準會政策：

    • 股票和債券在聯準會升息以對抗高通膨的背景下雙雙下跌。
    • 部分股票（如 $TSCO、$WHR、$PG、$AIFU）在通膨中逆勢上漲，而其他股票（如 $BYND、$WRD）則大幅下跌。

  2. 投資者情緒與市場時機：

    • 有觀點認為，當市場信心低迷時（如當前情況）可能是買入股票的機會，但Macquarie策略師指出，歷史低點的消費者信心通常伴隨經濟衰退和股票估值過低，而目前尚未達到這種程度。

  3. 通膨與經濟風險：

    • 策略師警告，當前通膨預期具有「黏性」（難以下降），同時消費者對就業安全的信心快速下滑，形成「停滯性通膨」的風險，這使得聯準會在應對經濟放緩時更加棘手。

總結：文章探討了高通膨與升息環境下的市場波動、投資策略的爭議，以及聯準會面臨的「成長放緩」與「通膨頑固」之間的兩難困境。

內容​

The third quarter of 2022 — the year both stocks and bonds both plunged as the Fed battled surging inflation with higher interest rates, according to FactSet data.

Some stocks experienced slight surge during inflation such as $TSCO, $WHR, $PG, $AIFU, while many others like $BYND, $WRD plummet.

“Some bulls might tell us that it is a good time to buy stocks when confidence itself is near its lows, as it seems to be now,” the Macquarie strategists said. “But that’s because historical lows in consumer sentiment have historically been seen when the economy has already fallen into a recession and the drop in stock prices has resulted in meaningfully low valuations.”

But “that’s not the case yet,” the strategists noted.

“The other reason for caution now is that inflation expectations are ‘sticky’ at a time when consumer expectations about job security is falling fast,” they wrote. “That’s a stagflationary mix that makes the Fed’s job of responding to a weakening growth outlook much more complicated.”

討論​

評論 1:

I'd be more concerned about the long-term impact of a +25-100% consumption tax on the average American and foreign nations rebalancing trade without the US than SPY's performance over 3 months.

Moreover, tariffs are sticky. They've always been marketed as patriotic, and pushed by lobbies and unions, so politicians are reluctant to take them down. The low/middle class is in for a ride, and it's not going to end at the next election.

評論 2:

Considering the run up at the start of the quarter, this worse than 4.6%.

評論 3:

We gonna have a tremendous boom. Boomtown.

評論 4:

You guys realize there's not really an accurate way to fortune tell this unless you know someone in the administration? Even then I'm not sure if they even know how this is going to go. Because if deal making starts happening relatively soon, everyone who went to cash is going to be frantically buying

If the negativity continues on and the tariffs actually get into the price of things, that definitely could get ugly. It's just hard to do imagine going that way because it would be throwing away the midterms. You wouldn't see the effects until later on this year, s&p 500 would probably be down around 20%. Really negative setup and what's the reason behind it exactly? I get trying to drive interest rates down. I get forcing the fed to lower rates. That's all going to happen within the next 3 to 6 months. You're going to have rising unemployment and GDP falling apart. If it happens quickly enough you won't even have the inflationary impacts of the tariffs

評論 5:

Dca to retirement or ruin boys

6. Tesla shares drop as Stifel slashes PT and delivery forecasts​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：

特斯拉（Tesla）股價因Stifel下調目標價與交付預期而大幅下跌，主要原因包括：

  1. Stifel下調評級：將目標價從474美元降至455美元，並大幅調降2025年交付量增長預期（從17%降至4%）。
  2. 市場負面因素：
    • 新款Model Y（Juniper）的推出進展。
    • 投資者對執行長馬斯克（Elon Musk）的負面情緒升溫。

結果：特斯拉股價在盤前交易中下跌5.3%，反映市場對其短期前景的擔憂。

內容​

連結： [https://grafa.com/news/auto-and-cars-tesla-shares-drop-as-stifel-slashes-pt-and-delivery-forecasts-410607

“Shares of electric vehicle giant Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) fell 5.3% to $249.6 in premarket trading on Monday, following a downgrade from Stifel.

The brokerage cut its price target on Tesla stock from $474 to $455 and significantly lowered its full-year 2025 delivery forecast from 17% growth to just 4%.

Stifel cited the rollout of the new Model Y (Juniper) and growing negative sentiment toward CEO Elon Musk as key factors impacting the company’s outlook.”

](https://grafa.com/news/auto-and-cars-tesla-shares-drop-as-stifel-slashes-pt-and-delivery-forecasts-410607

“Shares of electric vehicle giant Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) fell 5.3% to $249.6 in premarket trading on Monday, following a downgrade from Stifel.

The brokerage cut its price target on Tesla stock from $474 to $455 and significantly lowered its full-year 2025 delivery forecast from 17% growth to just 4%.

Stifel cited the rollout of the new Model Y (Juniper) and growing negative sentiment toward CEO Elon Musk as key factors impacting the company’s outlook.”

)

討論​

評論 1:

Still a brain dead price target of $455

評論 2:

"...forecast from 17% growth to just 4%." thus far. Maybe pissing off the world and entering politic is bad for business... who would have saw that coming?

評論 3:

To anyone that didn't read the "downgrade", it's a complete joke. Still has a $455 PT and projecting 4% growth.

Unreal. Just part of the sham.

評論 4:

Change in PT: -4%

Change in Growth Estimate: -76% (From 17% to 4%)

Make it make sense.

評論 5:

Still to high for what it's worth. Musk is too polarizing.

7. Bloody red market, bloody good prices? Or not yet?​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：在當前市場下跌的背景下，尋找具有反彈潛力的價值投資機會。

作者提到以下幾個重點：

  1. 市場現狀：股市相較於去年10月/11月的高點有所下跌，許多標的處於「打折」狀態。
  2. 投資時機的考量：
    • 作者已持有現金數月，考慮是否現在進場或再等待1-2個月。
    • 年輕（25歲）且剛有初始投資資金，希望趁市場低迷時開始投資。
  3. 核心問題：
    • 哪些股票或領域是當前具備價值的投資選擇？
    • 哪些標的可能在反彈中表現最強勁？

整體而言，這是一篇尋求「市場低位佈局策略」的討論，結合個人財務規劃與對未來反彈機會的評估。

內容​

As Trump rolls out another level of whatever the hell he's doing, what are some good value plays right now? Everything is on a sale of sorts, at least compared to October/November. Who will have the hardest rebounds? I've been cash gang for a few months now and I feel as though I'm nearly ready to make stock purchases. Or perhaps we wait another month or two. I'm 25, nearly 26 and would love to get started now that I finally have some amount of starting investment money, and the market has been wiped a bit.

討論​

評論 1:

To put things in perspective S&P is down like 7% YTD

評論 2:

Hmm I'm gonna wait until the orange monster declares war with our allies first.

評論 3:

Think of it this way.

Most of Trump policies (moronic I might add) have not showed up in the data/reports just yet.

What do you think is gonna happen to the US stock market when inflation is confirmed to go up thanks to all these tariffs ?

If you wanna go shopping for deals, come back in 4-6 months after the extent of the damage is felt by the market.

評論 4:

I think it's interesting because people constantly want the market to go on sale, but every time it goes on sale, you basically hear the exact same comments and sentiment that things are going to get worse, and a lot of these people end up just sitting on the sidelines. The market is being sold off in part because we don't have clarity on what's going to happen in the future, and obviously the market doesn't like that that lack of clarity. But at some point we will have clarity, and that could be as soon as this week. I don't know what these tariffs will look like, but imagine that it comes out and a lot of what people thought was going to happen ends up not happening. How does that change the market? I mean, I don't think we're going to go back to the highs we had in mid-February this year, but you could see a massive turnaround on the market and a lot of stuff that's oversold could quite quickly get re-rated to a more appropriate price, such as Google and Amazon. Personally, I'm just going to DCA with every extra dollar I have over the course of this year. If things get cheaper, then great - I'll buy stuff even on greater sales. I just believe that by continuing to invest through this entire market of uncertainty, I will come out on the other side doing much better. I just don't believe in timing the market, and even though the market is down only 7% YTD, there are parts of the market that are down much, much more - like 20-30%. And these companies, if they get any cheaper, are just going to be like the most brain-dead steals you've ever seen.

評論 5:

I reckon wait, even just a few days.

Trump is announcing major Tariffs on Thursday, literally calling it “Liberation Day” and I think this week it’ll move low. That’s when I would probably strike if I was looking to get in. Remember, this month in general is shaping up to be a bit of a bloodbath.

But at the very least - wait until the end of this week. Prices aren’t bad to buy in, but they’ll be even better if you wait another 72 hours…

8. Stocks close out their worst quarter since 2022 amid tariff uncertainty​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是 美國三大股指在2025年第一季度的顯著下跌，以及背後的主要驅動因素——即將實施的新關稅政策所引發的貿易不確定性。以下是重點總結：

  1. 股市表現惡化：

    • 標普500指數下跌超過4.5%，納斯達克指數暴跌10.4%，道瓊斯指數下跌1.3%，其中標普和納斯達克創下兩年多來最差季度表現。
    • 科技巨頭（如亞馬遜、蘋果等「科技七巨頭」）市值蒸發逾2兆美元，納斯達克指數抹去去年過半漲幅。

  2. 關稅政策的不確定性：

    • 美國總統川普即將宣布新一輪廣泛關稅，加劇了持續數月的貿易政策動盪，導致投資者恐慌。
    • 此不確定性被視為股市下跌的關鍵因素，類似於2022年俄烏戰爭引發的市場震盪。

  3. 市場修正與歷史對比：

    • 標普500一度跌入「修正區間」（較前高下跌10%），雖收復部分失地，但仍創下2022年12月以來最差單月跌幅。
    • 此次下跌終結了標普連續五季的漲勢，反映市場對貿易衝突升級的憂慮。

核心結論：文章聚焦於貿易政策風險如何衝擊投資者信心，並導致美國股市出現階段性大幅回調。

內容​

Two of the three major U.S. stock indexes just wrapped up their worst quarter in well over two years. The third barely avoided the same fate.

The S&P 500 dropped more than 4.5% for the first quarter of 2025 as of Monday’s close, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plummeted 10.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 1.3% lower and recorded its first back-to-back monthly loss since October 2023.

The declines on all three indexes come days before President Donald Trump is set to unveil a new slate of wide-ranging tariffs, extending ongoing trade policy turmoil that has kept investors guessing for months.

The broad-based S&P 500 fell briefly into correction territory Monday, meaning a 10% slide from its last high. The index regained some ground late in the day, but not enough to dodge its worst monthly percentage drop since December 2022.

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Markets

Stocks close out their worst quarter since 2022 amid tariff uncertainty

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq logged their worst performance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine slammed into the global economy.

Get more news

on

Savewith a NBCUniversal Profile

March 31, 2025, 5:25 PM EDT

By Steve Kopack

Two of the three major U.S. stock indexes just wrapped up their worst quarter in well over two years. The third barely avoided the same fate.

The S&P 500 dropped more than 4.5% for the first quarter of 2025 as of Monday’s close, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plummeted 10.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 1.3% lower and recorded its first back-to-back monthly loss since October 2023.

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The declines on all three indexes come days before President Donald Trump is set to unveil a new slate of wide-ranging tariffs, extending ongoing trade policy turmoil that has kept investors guessing for months.

The broad-based S&P 500 fell briefly into correction territory Monday, meaning a 10% slide from its last high. The index regained some ground late in the day, but not enough to dodge its worst monthly percentage drop since December 2022.

The index’s first-quarter stumbles ended a streak of five straight winning quarters, while the Nasdaq wiped out more than half of last year’s gains over the last three months. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta, known on Wall Street as the “magnificent 7,” have lost more than $2 trillion in market value collectively since the start of the year.

The last time U.S. markets stumbled as badly was in the middle of 2022 after Russia’s late-February invasion of Ukraine, shocking the global economy as Western nations hit Moscow with severe sanctions and commodities like oil and grains shot up in price.

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affects the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddits" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

評論 2:

How will this affect GTA 6’s legacy 

評論 3:

Don’t worry it’ll start out Q2 strong -8%

評論 4:

Trump admin scoring own goals and unforced errors

評論 5:

It's only just begun. Wait until we are liberated from our investments. One of the biggest wealth transfers from the poor/middle class to the rich is about to happen. Trump told everyone he was gonna make America great again and the money would flow in like magic. Nobody bothered to ask him for whom he was going to make it great for. Look at the row of people that was on stage at his inauguration, and you have your answer. America has been swindled...again.

9. Those of you who cashed out at the beginning of the year, what’s your strategy for buying back in?​

这篇文章的核心討論主題是「市場時機選擇的挑戰與投資策略的取捨」，具體圍繞以下幾個重點：

  1. 市場時機的困難性：
    指出準確預測市場高低點極為困難，即使部分投資者在特定時間（如1月）持有現金，仍面臨後續「何時重新進場」的難題。

  2. 重新進場策略的選擇：
    探討不同投資策略的優劣，包括：

    • 分批進場（DCA）：在市場下跌時逐步買入。
    • 等待復甦訊號：但需承認這依賴「後見之明」，可能錯失機會。
    • 長期觀望：選擇完全避開市場，但可能犧牲潛在回報。

  3. 當前市場環境的影響：
    在高利率（如無風險報酬達4%）與市場波動加劇的背景下，投資者面臨「承擔風險」或「選擇穩健收益」的兩難。

總結：文章聚焦於投資者在動盪市場中的決策困境，權衡「擇時風險」、「策略執行」與「機會成本」之間的複雜關係。

內容​

Timing the market is tough, and for those who loaded up on cash in January, you got half the puzzle right. What’s your approach to buying back in? DCA on the way down? Have you already begun? Wait until the recovery begins, which only hindsight can indicate. Or, are you just sitting out a year or more? With interest rates still high, it’s tough to pass up no-risk 4% when the market is so volatile.

討論​

評論 1:

Probably not until the tariff bs is over, my guess is june

評論 2:

Cashed out a lot once Trump took office, just a gut feeling that with a new administration and policies it would create uncertainty. I didn't expect the market to go down as much as it has but damn I am happy I got out. Going to stay on the sideline. Enjoying making easy money per month with the no risk 4.2% in SGOV. I'll get back in once tariffs tensions are over, which may not be for awhile, and there is a positive outlook for the economy, inflation and unemployment. Right now everything is looking negative for the foreseeable future. If you see any rally in the markets, take that as a sign to get out, like we did about a week ago, rallied back up to 18k on the Nasdaq, good time to sell, only to fall back under 17k this morning. It's volatile, and I am all about preserving my capital at this time. Not risking it with all the unknown and uncertainty. I'll pass.

評論 3:

I cashed out when SPX went over 6k as I felt we where in a bubble. I got a deal on a HYSA that gives me 1% higher than their advertised interest rate for a year. bought back 1 share of things I'm interested in to track and just being patient for the sale. No pressure to jump back in, don't need to catch the absolute bottom. Would rather catch it late on its way back up than early on its way down.

評論 4:

Waiting until at least summer or fall probably

評論 5:

We are entering a recession. Consumer sentiment cratering amid a global trade war, with a US administration tearing up the government that got the market to where it was while encouraging brazen corruption that I've never seen before. Currently I don't expect to redeploy all my cash for at least a year, but will respond to news accordingly.

10. Goldman Sachs hikes probability of US recession to 35% amid Trump tariff jitters​

這段文章的核心討論主題是美國經濟面臨的衰退風險加劇及其潛在原因，主要包含以下重點：

  1. 衰退風險上升：高盛（Goldman Sachs）將美國經濟衰退機率上調至35%，引發市場擔憂。
  2. 政策不確定性：川普提議對所有貿易夥伴課徵15%關稅，可能導致全球經濟混亂，包括物價上漲、供應鏈中斷及國際關係緊張。
  3. 通膨與經濟放緩：通膨預期升至2025年的3.5%，加劇民生成本壓力；同時GDP成長率恐放緩至1%，顯示經濟動能減弱。
  4. 結論：綜合這些因素，經濟衰退的可能性從「可能」轉向「很可能」。

整體而言，文章聚焦於外部政策衝擊（關稅）與內部經濟指標惡化（通膨、GDP）如何共同推升衰退風險。

內容​

Goldman Sachs bumping the recession risk up to 35% is pretty alarming—and honestly, it feels like a sign of what’s coming. Trump’s talk of 15% tariffs on all trading partners could throw the global economy into chaos. We’re talking higher prices, disrupted supply chains, and strained international relationships. On top of that, inflation is expected to hit 3.5% by the end of 2025, which means everyday stuff is going to get even more expensive. And with GDP growth now expected to slow to just 1%, it really feels like the economy is losing steam. If things keep heading in this direction, a recession isn’t just possible—it’s likely.

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/goldman-sachs-hikes-probability-of-us-recession-to-35-amid-trump-tariff-jitters-3956253

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affects the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddits" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

評論 2:

35 percent? Optimistic.

評論 3:

Since Reagan every republican president has put us into a recession, started preparing last November.

評論 4:

Is it funny or sad that some people still believe tariffs are good for America and they're still eating everything up that Trump says?

評論 5:

Trump will definitely get USA into recession everyone get ready for bad time to come.. pray God that we all survived this bad time

11. What % of your net worth are in individual stocks?​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：個人投資組合的配置與合理性評估。

作者（27歲，無房無子女）分享了自己的投資分布，包括401K、Roth IRA、貨幣市場基金和個股，並尋求反饋，重點關注：

  1. 資產配置的合理性：是否過度集中於個股（尤其是高風險標的），以及如何平衡指數基金與主動選股。
  2. 長期策略的有效性：是否應持續定期投入退休帳戶（如401K、Roth IRA），並在市場下跌時加碼個股。
  3. 風險管理：因應近期人生重大支出，持有較高比例的流動性資產（如貨幣市場基金），是否適當。

最終問題可歸結為：當前投資組合是否符合「典型」且穩健的長期財富累積策略，尤其針對其年齡與財務目標。

內容​

Hey all,

Looking to get some feedback on where I’m keeping all my money. Feel free to remove if not allowed. Background - 27M, don’t own a home yet, no kids

150K - 401K through work in index funds

50K - Roth IRA brokerage account in index funds

40K - VUSXX money market fund. way more than usual as I have some big life events coming up and didn’t want too much in stocks 25K - individual stocks which is split up into roughly 40% blue-chip stocks like MSFT/GOOGL, 40% solid growth stocks like AXON, SE, MELI and 20% more speculative picks like RKLB

This is the bulk of it. If the market continues to go down I plan on continuing to buy more individual stocks and will keep maxing out my Roth and contributing to 401K. Is this pretty typical for a portfolio? Mostly don’t want to be too much in individual stocks as I know it’s hard to beat the market over the long term. Thanks all!

討論​

評論 1:

About 85%, but I’m probably an outlier.

評論 2:

🤣I got like 20% in a start-up

評論 3:

Less than 2%

評論 4:

I’m so poor

評論 5:

5%

12. Trump aide says tariffs will raise $6 trillion as White House readies plan​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是美國總統川普政府計劃實施的新關稅政策及其潛在影響，具體聚焦於以下幾個方面：

  1. 關稅規模與財政影響：

    • 白宮顧問彼得·納瓦羅（Peter Navarro）宣稱，新關稅（包括汽車進口關稅和其他未公布的關稅）將在未來十年為聯邦政府增加超過6萬億美元收入，可能成為「美國現代史上最大規模的和平時期增稅」。
    • 專家質疑這一數字的可行性，認為關稅成本最終會轉嫁給消費者，導致進口商品需求下降，實際稅收可能遠低於預期。

  2. 政策動機與政治敘事：

    • 川普政府將關稅視為振興美國製造業、創造就業和維護國家安全的工具。納瓦羅稱「關稅就是減稅、關稅就是就業」，並呼應川普「讓美國再次偉大」的口號。
    • 反對聲音（包括經濟學家和部分政府官員如凱文·哈塞特）認為，全面關稅可能加劇經濟不穩定，甚至引發衰退風險。

  3. 政策分歧與內部矛盾：

    • 政府內部對關稅存在分歧：納瓦羅代表強硬派，主張大幅提高關稅；財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）等則提倡更溫和的、針對個別貿易夥伴的差異化關稅政策。
    • 川普本人傾向激進措施，近期重提「對所有進口商品統一徵收20%關稅」的競選承諾，但未明確最終政策細節。

  4. 潛在經濟與社會後果：

    • 經濟學家警告，全面關稅將推高物價（尤其是食品和電子產品等無法本土替代的商品），加劇通脹並損害消費者利益。
    • 市場對貿易戰升級的擔憂加劇，可能進一步衝擊金融市場穩定。

總結：文章圍繞川普政府擬議的關稅政策，分析其財政目標、政治意圖、內部爭議及潛在風險，反映這一政策在經濟效益與政治象徵之間的巨大爭議。

內容​

White House aide Peter Navarro claimed Sunday that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs would raise more than $6 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade, a figure that experts said would almost certainly represent the largest peacetime tax hike in modern U.S. history.

Appearing on Fox News, Navarro said the president’s tariffs on auto imports, set to take effect Wednesday, would raise $100 billion per year. Meanwhile, a regime of additional tariffs — details of which have yet to be released — would raise another $600 billion per year, or $6 trillion over the next decade, Navarro said.

Navarro’s remarks suggest Trump is preparing dramatic new measures for Wednesday, which the president has referred to as “Liberation Day.” Navarro is known to be among the most hawkish voices in the president’s inner circle on trade, and it was not immediately clear if he was speaking to official administration policy or for one side of an internal debate over the tariffs. But Navarro’s comments are sure to rattle markets amid intensifying fears about the global trade war that Trump’s tariffs have started.

Also speaking on Fox News on Sunday, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, declined to outline Trump’s plans. Hassett is widely regarded as more skeptical of tariffs than Navarro.

“I can’t give you any forward-looking guidance on what’s going to happen this week,” Hassett said. “The president has got a heck of a lot of analysis before him, and he’s going to make the right choice, I’m sure.”

Tariffs are taxes imposed on foreign goods imported into the United States. A tariff regime that generated $600 billion per year would amount to the biggest increase in federal tax revenue since World War II, according to Jessica Riedl, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a center-right think tank.

By way of comparison, the U.S. is set to spend roughly $900 billion per year on the Pentagon this year. Extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts is projected to cost roughly $4 trillion over the next decade, adding roughly $400 billion a year to the national debt.

Generating $600 billion a year in fresh revenue theoretically would cover the cost of those tax cuts and then some. But economists say new taxes of that magnitude also could deepen instability on Wall Street and further increase the risk of a U.S. recession, and experts are extremely skeptical the tariffs would raise as much as Navarro claimed.

The Trump administration argues that steep tariffs are necessary to bring production and manufacturing jobs back to the United States. “The message is tariffs are tax cuts. Tariffs are jobs. Tariffs are national security,” Navarro said. “Tariffs will make America great again.”

Navarro did not disclose details of the additional tariffs coming Wednesday, but Trump has in recent days revived the idea of imposing a single universal rate on all imports to the United States, regardless of the product or the country of origin. During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump proposed setting this flat tariff rate as high as 20 percent.

Because the U.S. imports more than $3 trillion worth of goods per year, simple math suggests that a 20 percent import tax on all goods could raise close to $600 billion in annual revenue. However, economists argue that such a tax ultimately would raise far less because the costs would be passed on to American consumers in the form of higher prices and consumers would therefore purchase fewer imported goods. In an interview with NBC on Saturday, Trump nodded to this effect, saying he “couldn’t care less” if his auto tariffs raise prices, because higher prices on imports would encourage people to buy American-made cars instead.

A universal flat tariff has been heavily criticized by economists in both parties, who argue that it would raise prices indiscriminately, striking even some goods — such as food and cheap consumer electronics — that either cannot be produced in America or make little sense to produce domestically.

This month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined a more moderate approach to “Liberation Day” that calls for the United States to determine a new tariff policy for its each of its key trading partners, leaving room for negotiations and dealmaking. But Trump has told advisers in recent days that he is wary of being insufficiently ambitious with his tariff policy, and it remains unclear precisely what Wednesday will bring.

討論​

評論 1:

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評論 2:

"We will raise billions from tariffs as American consumers continue to purchase foreign goods while also creating millions of jobs in America as American consumers stop purchasing foreign goods and buy more made in America"

It's an incoherent argument.

評論 3:

Not sure why are they setting such a low bar.

Just multiply all tariffs 100x and go for $600 trillion, duh!

評論 4:

Tariffs…how do they work?

評論 5:

The entire GDP of the United States is 30 trillion…

13. Why is Tesla Worth Anything?​

这篇文章的核心討論主題是：比亞迪（BYD）在全球市場超越特斯拉（Tesla）的競爭優勢，以及投資者為何未充分反映這一趨勢在特斯拉的股價中。具體要點包括：

  1. 比亞迪的市場表現：

    • 比亞迪全球銷量已超越特斯拉，並積極進軍歐洲市場。
    • 其產品性價比極高（如售價低至1萬美元的車型），技術與價格優勢對特斯拉構成嚴重威脅。

  2. 特斯拉的潛在危機：

    • 若無關稅保護，比亞迪可能迅速主導美國市場，徹底擊敗特斯拉。
    • 作者認為特斯拉長期前景堪憂（"Tesla is cooked"），因比亞迪提供「兩倍性能、一半價格」的產品。

  3. 投資者的定價矛盾：

    • 儘管比亞迪在多國市場領先，特斯拉股價仍被高估，未反映現實競爭劣勢。
    • 類比輝達（NVDA）因中國AI競爭（如DeepSeek）股價下跌，但比亞迪對特斯拉的威脅更直接且嚴重。

  4. 關稅的短期作用與長期趨勢：

    • 美國關稅暫緩比亞迪的擴張，但長期難以阻擋其全球競爭力。

總結：文章質疑市場對特斯拉的過度樂觀估值，並強調比亞迪的性價比優勢和全球擴張將重塑電動車行業格局，呼籲投資者重新評估特斯拉的風險。

內容​

Chinese BYD company has just outsold Tesla worldwide and is taking over European markets.

Why don't investors price this in?

We say NVDA crashing after deepseek came out. BYD is way more dangerous to Tesla than Deepseek is to Open AI.

BYD had great cars for as low as $10,000. Without tarrifs, BYD would come to the US and completely wipe Tesla out.

I suppose this can be delayed through tarrifs but long term, it looks like Tesla is cooked.

BYD sells cars twice as good for half the price.

So why is Tesla stock worth so much if BYD is beating it all over the world and if tarrifs were removed, BYD would wipe Tesla out in the US as well.

討論​

評論 1:

Because Musk is really good at hype. That’s about it

評論 2:

  1. The market is not rational
  2. Tesla was once seen as a harbinger of the future. More than "just cars". Look around this sub and you'll see plenty of posts from 2 years ago about how their battery tech was going to be a game changer

Most people on this sub agree it's a gambling stock, overvalued, and also volatile.

BUT, that's investing.

Personally, I think if you weren't in 1+ years ago, don't risk it. But the market is irrational.

Also, there are plenty of EV competitors out there who have been around for years and are still trading in pennies or sub $100

評論 3:

You managed to write a piece about Tesla's worth, without actually mentioning anything tangibly or intangibly related to Tesla. Incredible. We've reached maximum fear and frenzy

評論 4:

you might as well say long term every car manufacturer is cooked. who can make cars cheaper and better than BYD?

評論 5:

Because people on Reddit are not representative of the real world, and talk confidently about things they don't understand in the slightest.

14. Trump says he 'couldn't care less' if auto prices rise because of tariffs​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：美國前總統川普對進口汽車及零件徵收25%關稅的政策立場，以及他對汽車價格上漲的態度。

關鍵點包括：

  1. 關稅政策：川普實施25%的關稅，影響進口汽車及零件，可能導致車價上漲。
  2. 對價格上漲的立場：川普明確表示「不在乎」汽車製造商因此漲價，甚至鼓勵此舉，認為這將促使消費者轉向購買美國本土汽車。
  3. 政策目標：他強調關稅是為了保護美國汽車產業，刺激國內生產與消費（「人們會開始買美國車」）。

文章同時隱含對川普邏輯的質疑（如「Solid logic, my guy…」的諷刺語氣），暗示其政策可能忽略消費者負擔或市場複雜性。

內容​

連結： [https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/29/business/trump-auto-prices-tariffs/index.html

President Donald Trump said Saturday he doesn’t care if automakers hike prices because of his tariffs. In fact, he encouraged them to.

Asked by NBC News’ Kristen Welker in a phone interview about whether he pressured automakers to avoid raising prices after his 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts go into effect, Trump denied that he told CEOs to control costs.

“No, I never said that,” Trump told Welker. “I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American cars.”

Solid logic, my guy…](https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/29/business/trump-auto-prices-tariffs/index.html

President Donald Trump said Saturday he doesn’t care if automakers hike prices because of his tariffs. In fact, he encouraged them to.

Asked by NBC News’ Kristen Welker in a phone interview about whether he pressured automakers to avoid raising prices after his 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts go into effect, Trump denied that he told CEOs to control costs.

“No, I never said that,” Trump told Welker. “I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American cars.”

Solid logic, my guy…)

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affects the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

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評論 2:

"I will lower the prices on day one!"

評論 3:

I had to replace the engine filter and a few bulbs in the headlight housings on my little sisters Ford. The housings had various Chinese and Korean characters, the bulbs were made in Canada, the wires had Spanish on them, and the filter was made in Vietnam.

Good luck with your ALL AMURIKUN automobiles!

評論 4:

Easy for him to say, he just bought a tesler so doesn't need a new car for 5-10 years.

評論 5:

Like a man doing his utmost to get mercked by angry billionaires.

15. Where does everyone get their news from? I'm done with SeekingAlpha​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：

  1. 對SA（Seeking Alpha）訂閱模式的不滿：作者因未續訂SA，導致平台使用體驗大幅下降（如無法關閉的大幅廣告），因而尋找替代方案。
  2. 尋求類似SA功能的替代平台：作者偏好Yahoo，但希望找到能像SA一樣提供即時財經新聞與圖表分析的平台。

簡言之，重點在於批評SA的付費牆與廣告策略，並徵求其他財經資訊平台的推薦。

內容​

I didnt renew my subscription to SA recently and it basically made the platform unusable. They put up giant half page ads you cant close even if you want to just look at charts. Any alternative? I like yahoo but im trying to see if there is one that pumps out news like SA does.

討論​

評論 1:

Combination of stuff. Can’t rely on any one source. NYT, WSJ, regulator and exchange bulletins etc.

I say this though since I’m only a retail investor and I don’t have the money for services like seekalpha / refuse to pay since it never did anything for me.

Stay away from the Motley Fool.

評論 2:

I'm glad I'm not the only one. Loved Seeking Alpha up until around Christmas 2024. I use Yahoo Finance on computer and phone applications.

評論 3:

Yahoo finance

評論 4:

Wendy’s drive-thru

評論 5:

I like barrons the most. But as mentioned? You need more than 1 source. Bag holders are everywhere.

16. The most accurate indicator I know is the VIX.​

这篇文章的核心討論主題是：如何利用VIX（波動率指數）作為市場情緒和時機判斷的關鍵指標，以指導投資決策（買入或賣出股票）。

具體重點包括：

  1. VIX的定義與作用：

    • VIX是衡量股市波動性的指標，反映投資人對市場風險的預期（通過選擇權交易數據推算）。

  2. VIX數值的解讀與對應策略：

    • 約20：市場處於正常波動範圍，無需特別行動。
    • 約30：市場出現不安情緒，可逐步買入。
    • 40以上：進入修正階段，應加大買入力度。
    • 50-60：嚴重修正，是積極買入的時機（因VIX通常短期內回落，市場將反彈）。
    • 超過70（如2009年金融危機、2020年3月疫情崩盤）：極端恐慌與市場崩盤，此時應大舉買進（儘管心理上極具挑戰）。

  3. 核心觀點：

    • VIX是作者認為最準確的市場指標，能有效提示「何時進場」；
    • 高VIX反映恐慌，但歷史顯示波動終將回歸常態，逆向操作可獲利。

總結：文章強調透過VIX判斷市場極端情緒，並利用恐慌時機逆向布局，屬於「恐懼時貪婪」的投資策略分析。

內容​

The most accurate indicator I know of in the market is the VIX. What is the VIX? This a volatility indicator and tells you how volatile the stock market is, based on people buying and selling put and call options on stocks.

Why is this important? It is a prompt for you, to know what to do, at the right time. When to buy or when to sell.

When the VIX is trading around 20 or so, that’s not a big deal. That’s normal. When the VIX trades around 30 you want to start buying a little, it is showing some nervousness in the market. When it hits 40 you are entering a correction and you want to buy more stocks.

50 or 60 is a full fledged correction and a buy, buy, buy. The VIX has never traded and stayed at 50 more than a couple of weeks. It will come back down, which means stocks will go back up.

A couple times it has traded over 70, 2009, March 2020. This is a full fledged crash. People are throwing up, they think everyone is going out of business. Portfolio’s are down 50% or 60%. This is where you back up the truck. It’s not easy, it’s really hard to do.

The VIX is the most accurate indicator I know in the market. I track it daily.

討論​

評論 1:

Do you actually know what VIX is?

評論 2:

VIX is a measure of implied volatility of current SP500 options. It’s a second moment estimate and hence non-directional

評論 3:

Is this “accurate indicator” in the room with us now?

評論 4:

This is one of the better strategies if you're trying to knife catch

評論 5:

Extending this logic further the most accurate indicator of what happened to SPY is the price of SPY. if it's down by 5% buy a little. If it's down by 20% buy some more. If it's down by 50% sell your kidney and buy lots of it.

Because I guarantee you VIX will beautifully track this.

17. Why is my cost per share on my tax lots much higher than what I actually paid?​

這段討論的核心主題是「Robinhood 平台上以稅務批次（tax lots）方式賣出股票時，顯示的每股成本與實際購買成本不一致的疑問」。具體問題包括：

  1. 成本差異困惑：用戶實際購買價為每股 $16.38（總成本 $1,638），但賣出時平台顯示每股成本為 $24.33，導致帳面出現不合理虧損（$862）。
  2. 潛在原因探討：可能涉及平台計算方式（如含手續費、股息再投資調整）、稅務批次規則（FIFO/LIFO等），或顯示錯誤。
  3. 對投資決策的影響：用戶因成本數據不符而難以評估真實損益，需釐清計算邏輯以避免錯誤賣出。

簡言之，問題聚焦於「稅務批次賣出時，每股成本顯示異常的成因與解決方式」。

內容​

I’m looking at selling by tax lots on Robinhood and it shows the cost per share for each tax lots. For example a stock which I purchased on 3/28 for 100 shares for $16.38 for a total of $1,638.

But when I go to sell per tax lots it says my cost per share for those 100 shares is $24.33. It’s also showing a loss of $862 at a current share price of $15.71.

討論​

評論 1:

Wash sale? Did you book a loss prior to opening that position within 30 days?

評論 2:

Schwab did this to me:( I get wash sales and admit i don't fully understand it but I was quite surprised when Schwab was showing I purchased a position at $15 more then I actually did and then showing my account balance negative that much:(

I understand you can't take a lose 2 times in 30 days but isn't that just for tax purposes? My entire account balance was affected by it..

18. US Economy estimated to shrink by 0.5% in Q1. If it shrinks again in Q2, it would officially be the start of a recession.​

該文章的核心討論主題是 美國經濟在2025年初出現「停滯性通膨」（stagflation）的跡象，具體表現為：

  1. 經濟成長放緩甚至收縮：
    • 第一季GDP預估縮減0.5%（經調整後）。
    • 消費者支出連續下降，經通膨調整後較前月減少0.6%。
  2. 通膨壓力攀升：
    • 聯準會關注的通膨指標年增率達4.1%，創一年新高。
  3. 金融市場反應：
    • 標普500指數較2月高點下跌9%，反映投資者對經濟前景的擔憂。

文章透過數據分析，指出當前經濟環境同時面臨「停滯」（成長乏力）與「通膨」（物價上漲）的雙重挑戰，並暗示這可能對政策制定與市場情緒產生影響。

內容​

連結： [https://www.axios.com/2025/03/30/stagflation-economy-inflation-growth

The backward-looking data lately has been distinctly stagflationary. Consumer spending in the first two months of 2025 has been soft, coming in 0.6% below its December rate (when adjusted for inflation). A real-time estimate of GDP published by the Atlanta Fed is now pointing to economic activity shrinking at an 0.5% rate in Q1, which ends Monday (after adjusting for gold inflows that distort economic data). Meanwhile, the inflation measure favored by the Fed has risen at a 4.1% annual rate in the first two months of 2025, the highest in a year. That all helps explain why, following a steep selloff Friday, the S&P 500 is now 9% below its Feb. 19 high.

](https://www.axios.com/2025/03/30/stagflation-economy-inflation-growth

The backward-looking data lately has been distinctly stagflationary. Consumer spending in the first two months of 2025 has been soft, coming in 0.6% below its December rate (when adjusted for inflation). A real-time estimate of GDP published by the Atlanta Fed is now pointing to economic activity shrinking at an 0.5% rate in Q1, which ends Monday (after adjusting for gold inflows that distort economic data). Meanwhile, the inflation measure favored by the Fed has risen at a 4.1% annual rate in the first two months of 2025, the highest in a year. That all helps explain why, following a steep selloff Friday, the S&P 500 is now 9% below its Feb. 19 high.

)

討論​

評論 1:

Consumer spending is going to decrease as long as tariffs remain in place, I expect further revisions downward.

評論 2:

Anecdotally I have a good job and I'm cutting back just cause I know people who were laid off. The slowdown is real.

評論 3:

No worries, Government will just redefine the definition of "recession" again. Problem solved.

評論 4:

Let's have stock markets dropping 20% from peak

評論 5:

Hold onto your cash folks.

19. Those of you who are holding cash right now instead of DCAing, why?​

这篇文章的核心讨论主題是：投資新手對「持有現金」策略的疑惑與動機探討。

作者以「只懂定期定額（DCA）」的新手角度，提出幾個問題，試圖理解其他投資者選擇持有現金（而非持續投入市場）的原因，包括：

  1. 對市場反彈的悲觀預期（是否認為市場不會回升？）
  2. 嘗試擇時進出（是否在等待更好的進場時機？）
  3. 個人財務穩定性考量（是否因未來收入不確定而保留現金？）

整體而言，討論聚焦於「現金持有策略」背後的決策邏輯，以及不同投資者面對市場波動時的心態與風險管理方式。

內容​

I'm a noob and I only know to DCA. But it seems many on here are holding cash. What are your reasons?

Do you think the market will never rebound? Are you trying to time the market? Are you worried the stability of your future income?

討論​

評論 1:

Because the rumor is I am about to lose my job this week.

評論 2:

I’m getting paid interest for it instead of it going down. The government is actually trying to tank the economy. This is the easiest call to sit out for a while in my lifetime and is the first time I’ve ever done it.

評論 3:

been holding cash since spx 6000. yes time in the market beats timing the market, but sometimes government tells you clearly what their policy is, and market reaction clearly shows it does not favor the current government policy. when it is the case, you gotta do the necessary to protect your gains and your principal

評論 4:

Simple, I dont see a bottom yet. I would rather "miss the appetizer" than get in too early and have to lose more or sit on dead money in an underwater stock because of FOMO.

The Trump situation is more volatile than most other investing environments. Does anyone really believe it will smooth over in a month or 2 and then we have 3.5 years of stability?

評論 5:

Cash earns me a risk free 4.2% in SGOV.

20. All CEO trades for Tsla Pltr Goog Pfe in new Insider trading charts site​

这篇文章的核心討論主題是揭露企業高層（尤其是CEO）如何利用複雜的財務操作（如選擇權行使與股票出售的搭配）隱瞞實際的股票拋售行為，並批評現行監管資料（如SEC Edgar資料庫）因官僚格式問題導致資訊不透明。作者進一步提供一個自建工具（timeportal.pro/insidertrading）來簡化追蹤內線交易，特別點名與美國政府關係密切的企業（如Palantir），建議投資者在決策前應查核高層交易動向，以避開潛在風險。整體聚焦於「企業高層隱匿性股票操作」與「監管數據的透明度缺陷」，並推廣自製的解決方案。

內容​

So I wanted to post this when there was really low traffic because I don't know how much traffic My server can actually support. Basically, you can go to the SEC Edgar's database and see every single CEOs buying and selling within about 24-hour notice. That's not the hard part. The hard part is that all the data is so government red taped that it's a pain in the ass to read then calculate. And CEOs use that to their advantage to hide when they dump their own shares. One of the ways they do this is by exercising options then selling the same amount of shares. What ends up happening is that it looks like they didn't sell any shares at all but what they really did was buy shares at like a 90% discount that were entitled to them by the board of directors from way back when then sell the same amount of shares that they've been holding. So they're dumping stock without their net holdings numbers changing. Anyways, there's a whole bunch of different ways they try to game the system and hide their moves.

All that's been super clarified and transparentized.

I'm going to leave a non-clickable link so that it keeps the traffic to a minimum and nobody thinks I'm a spamming but before you go buying a whole bunch of stocks or even crypto, I recommend that you look for insider trading. I specifically selected these companies because the CEOs of these companies are the closest to the Pentagon, Trump, and US senators. Palantir for instance knows more about the world than the CIA or mi6.

Anyways the website is at timeportal.pro/insidertrading

Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions

討論​

評論 1:

Useless

21. Trump officials, allies grow “anxious about April 2 tariffs”​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是對特朗普可能實施的關稅政策的不確定性及其影響。

重點包括：

  1. 政策不確定性：特朗普的關稅政策尚未被市場完全消化，因為他的具體行動難以預測，甚至連他的核心團隊也在努力揣摩他的意圖。
  2. 內部混亂：特朗普的顧問（被稱為「yes men」）在試圖應對他的決策風格，顯示出內部協調的困難。
  3. 市場與企業的擔憂：這種不確定性可能引發市場動盪，企業也難以提前做好準備。

文章也提到一個正面跡象（Lutnick被要求停止發言），暗示某些混亂可能被控制，但整體仍凸顯特朗普政策方向的不可預測性。

內容​

連結： [https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/29/trump-aides-tariffs-liberation-day-fears-00259081

This is why tariffs aren’t completely “priced in” at this point. No one knows what the guy is gonna do, and even his own “yes men” are scrambling trying to figure it out. On the plus side, it does seem like Lutnick was told to shut it. ](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/29/trump-aides-tariffs-liberation-day-fears-00259081

This is why tariffs aren’t completely “priced in” at this point. No one knows what the guy is gonna do, and even his own “yes men” are scrambling trying to figure it out. On the plus side, it does seem like Lutnick was told to shut it. )

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affects the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddits" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!

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評論 2:

This is why Congress needs to take back control over tariffs from the President. This arbitrary bullshit is bad for the economy.

評論 3:

Seems real hard to walk back something you've been calling "liberation day". You can't have it both ways and sell tarrifs as this amazing thing to fix everything, but also keep walking them back at every chance.

評論 4:

They haven't communicated a clear offramp.
- If the tariffs stay on forever, they permanently hobble the US economy and US companies as import substitutes aren't going to be available any time soon, and US exports become uncompetitive
- If they're intended as a negotiating tactic, they're not doing a good job communicating what it is they want
- If they are for revenue raising, that goes against what most economists say makes any sense

Investing at the moment seems like a game of roulette, or a game for insider trading only. Hopefully however April 2 might be the start of this stupidity coming to an end.

評論 5:

“April 2nd is Liberation Day. I wanted to go with April 1 but you guys wouldn’t believe me since it’s April Fools Day.”

Trump every single day to reporters

22. FT Exclusive: Accenture (ACN) one of the hardest hit public consulting companies, DOGE cuts 240.3 million USD in contracts, stock down 12%​

这篇文章的核心讨论主題是：

美國政府（尤其是特朗普政府）推動削減諮詢服務支出，導致多家大型顧問公司（尤其是德勤Deloitte）面臨合約終止或縮減，並要求這些公司提交節省政府開支的具體計劃。

關鍵要點包括：

  1. 德勤成為最大「輸家」：其129份合約被終止或縮減，數量遠超其他公司（如Booz Allen Hamilton、Accenture等）。
  2. 政府節省開支的強制要求：10家主要顧問公司被要求提出具體方案，通過降價或取消非核心合約來減少政府支出，目標節省高達1兆美元。
  3. 數據與爭議：政府聲稱已節省130億美元，但計算方法被批評為不透明或有誤（例如部分合約終止缺乏審計依據）。
  4. 行業影響：涉及多個政府部門（如教育部、財政部等），且未來潛在合約金額龐大（10家公司預計向政府收取650億美元費用）。

整體聚焦於政府與顧問公司之間的緊張關係，以及政策變動對企業業務的衝擊。

內容​

Deloitte is not publicly traded, but other firms on the list such as Accenture are, which is current down 12% over the last month.

By Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT on Monday March 31.

"Deloitte is emerging as the biggest early loser from a Trump administration push to axe spending on consultants, ahead of a Monday deadline for the companies to offer price cuts and other concessions.

The Big Four accounting and consulting firm has had at least 129 contracts terminated or slimmed down, according to a Financial Times analysis of data published by Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency (Doge). The figure is more than double that of any other consultancy.

Deloitte is one of 10 consulting firms that have been ordered to submit a detailed plan to save the government money, either by cutting prices or suggesting contracts that are not “mission critical” for an agency.

Accenture, IBM and Booz Allen Hamilton are among the other firms given a deadline of 5pm (ET) Monday for their proposal, which must have a dollar figure for potential savings, according to correspondence from the administration seen by the FT. Between them, the 10 firms are on course to bill the federal government $65bn in fees in 2025 and future years, the administration said.

Doge wields the axe against consulting firms

||Claimed savings ($mn)|Number of contracts|

|:-|:-|:-|

|Deloitte|371.8|129|

|Booz Allen Hamilton|207.1|60|

|Guidehouse|376.1|54|

|Accenture|240.3|30|

|General Dynamics|202.8|16|

|IBM|34.3|10|

|Leidos|78.5|7|

|CGI Federal|0.5|7|

|SAIC|7.6|5|

|HII Mission Technologies|0|0|

“Each of these firms would do well to come in and say they have identified 25 to 30 per cent of savings and be very strong on why the rest is important,” said a senior official in the General Services Administration, which helps to co-ordinate federal procurement.

The GSA’s demands on the 10 firms come on top of the rolling effort across government to cut contracts and grants it deems wasteful.

Doge is claiming it has identified $130bn in savings to date, and is aiming to reach $1tn, but the methodology behind its calculations has been criticised for inconsistencies and errors. About half of the 7,100 claimed contract cancellations lack enough information for external audit.

Identifying a savings figure for a cancelled contract is also complicated by the fact that many multiyear umbrella contracts have a high ceiling that would not in fact be reached when the work is finally doled out.

Deloitte has lost contracts at almost every agency targeted by Doge, including the departments of education, health and human services and agriculture, the Environmental Protection Agency and the US Treasury.

According to Doge’s data, Deloitte’s terminated contracts will save the US taxpayer $372mn. That figure does not include any savings from one of the largest single contracts cancelled to date, an IT services deal with the Internal Revenue Service, that provided for up to $1.9bn in revenue over seven years to Deloitte and several other contractors.

The largest claimed savings from a consulting firm come from Guidehouse, which was spun off from PwC in 2018, where Doge says $376mn has been saved, a majority from a single department of energy contract. Deloitte and Guidehouse did not respond to requests for comment.

A template slide deck provided to the 10 targeted consulting firms tells them to detail and justify their government work, agency by agency, in “layman terms”, adding that “a 15-year-old should be able to understand what service you provide and why it is important”.

Deloitte is emerging as the biggest early loser from a Trump administration push to axe spending on consultants, ahead of a Monday deadline for the companies to offer price cuts and other concessions.

The Big Four accounting and consulting firm has had at least 129 contracts terminated or slimmed down, according to a Financial Times analysis of data published by Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency (Doge). The figure is more than double that of any other consultancy.

Deloitte is one of 10 consulting firms that have been ordered to submit a detailed plan to save the government money, either by cutting prices or suggesting contracts that are not “mission critical” for an agency.

Accenture, IBM and Booz Allen Hamilton are among the other firms given a deadline of 5pm (ET) Monday for their proposal, which must have a dollar figure for potential savings, according to correspondence from the administration seen by the FT. Between them, the 10 firms are on course to bill the federal government $65bn in fees in 2025 and future years, the administration said."

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/f546506d-7f2d-4f64-976d-3f73e48333d7

討論​

評論 1:

I do wonder how the powers that be think the government will function without the expertise these companies provide. Many of the above are involved in CyberSecurity and the running of archaic and undocumented computer systems. (I'm not sure the doge staff can rewrite ancient undocument software, like the IRS runs. Good luck with that. In the best cases we won't have to pay taxes because they'll f' it up.)

There's reason many of them (surely not all, but many) were hired. Reason: Because the gov pay scale isn't high enough to get qualified people to work for them.

評論 2:

Now lose the foreign customers 

23. How is EBITDA a good indication of a companies health?​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是：「EBITDA是否能夠準確反映公司的財務健康狀況，以及相較於淨利潤（NET），哪個指標更適合評估公司盈利能力」。

具體要點包括：

  1. 對EBITDA用途的質疑：作者不理解為什麼EBITDA（稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤）被廣泛用作公司財務健康的指標，尤其是它排除了折舊、攤銷等非現金項目。
  2. 淨利潤（NET）的對比：作者認為淨利潤（扣除所有費用後的實際盈利）更能真實反映公司盈利能力，並提到不同公司的會計處理（如資產折舊差異）可能影響可比性。
  3. 核心問題：在評估公司財務表現時，EBITDA和淨利潤哪個指標更可靠或適用，尤其考慮到不同公司的資本結構和會計政策差異。

簡言之，這是一場關於「財務指標選擇」的討論，聚焦於EBITDA的局限性與淨利潤的實用性之間的權衡。

內容​

Hi all,

I have read CHATGPT explanation as well as a few websites explanations. However I am still struggling to understand how looking at the EBITDA is a good indication of a companies health.

If I wanted to look at how profitable a company is, wouldn't looking at their NET be the best thing? Even taking into consideration that different companies write-off different things (e.g. two companies - one owns building the other does not).

Thanks all!

討論​

評論 1:

In short, EBITDA focuses on operating expenses by stripping away interest and taxes, as well as non-cash expenses like depreciation and amortization. It gives you an idea of the cash flow generated by operations if you don't have the cash flow statement.

It also allows you to compare companies with different capital structure within the same industry.

評論 2:

EBITDA is an aggregate that shows your company's profitability before taking into account its financing structure (paid through interests and dividends), its D&A accounting policy, and taxes.

Said another way: EBITDA is the closest P&L aggregate you will get to cash flow generation from your activity.

評論 3:

It’s a proxy for operating cash flow, but it’s not the complete picture. It’s can be used to get a quick idea of the company’s operating performance but it’s not going to give you the full picture. It’s often used for quick valuation calculations, but if you really want to analyze the company you need the full p&l and balance sheet.

評論 4:

Too many complications further down

With writeoffs and special items, net can be completely meaningless for valuing company

EBITDA is pure

評論 5:

No unless you think debt and taxes don't matter

Free cash flow and FCF/share is best imo. FCF removes non-cash expenses like depreciation while still including interest payments and tax payments

24. Genuine hypothetical question from a non-American - what happens to the stock market if Trump doesn't leave office in ~4 years?​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是對美國政治不確定性（特別是前總統特朗普可能重返政壇或拒絕和平移交權力的情境）及其對全球經濟和投資市場潛在影響的擔憂。主要焦點包括：

  1. 政治風險與民主倒退

    • 作者擔憂美國可能出現「民主獨裁」傾向（類似俄羅斯、土耳其等國），並批評特朗普及其支持者（如JD Vance）無視法治，可能破壞民主制度。

  2. 經濟政策的不確定性

    • 提及特朗普的關稅政策（「lunatic tariffs」）可能對經濟造成負面影響，引發對美國經濟穩定性的質疑。

  3. 投資市場的潛在衝擊

    • 探討政治動盪下傳統投資工具（如標普500指數基金VOO/VUSA）的可靠性，並提出資金可能流向日本、歐洲等穩定經濟體或避險資產（如黃金）。
    • 對加密貨幣的投機性提出質疑，認為其可能被富豪操控（暗指馬斯克等）。

  4. 全球連動效應

    • 強調美國政治危機的全球影響（「美國打噴嚏，全球感冒」），尤其對非美國投資者的退休金安全構成威脅。

  5. 對選民與制度的悲觀

    • 批評部分選民「天真」或易受操縱，導致極端政治延續，加劇系統性風險。

總結：文章結合政治分析與投資策略，核心在警告「美國民主崩壞」可能觸發的全球經濟連鎖反應，並呼籲讀者正視此風險的現實性。

內容​

With each passing day the likeliness of this happening seems to increase. The GOP seem to be increasingly flirting with the idea and it's not be ruled out. And we all remember what happened last time when he lost. Clearly, there is no respect for the rule of law, and no one seems willing (or able) to enforce it anymore. There is also seemingly no one willing or able to prevent the damage this man is clearly going to do to the economy with these lunatic tariffs.

I should also mention that these are the exact circumstances that lead to other "democratic" dictatorships started like Russia, Turkey, Hungary, China.. and those are all leaders that Trump praises.

So humour me - and I know many of you naiively will refuse to ever accept the possibility of this happening - but what happens if somehow Trump refuses to leave, or through either shenanigans, (or sheer stupidity of the electorate), JD Vance (or Trump Jr) becomes president and we have a continuation of what we're seeing?

Do people still believe in investing in the VOO (or VUSA for us in the UK) ? Would money flow towards stable economies like Japan and Europe? The problem I see with that being that when the US sneezes the whole world tends to catch a cold, so I don't know how great an idea that would be. Maybe gold would be the biggest winner? Some might be tempted by crypto but with the world's richest man manipulating the game I don't know how great a play that would be.

I know a lot of people will say "well then we have bigger problems", but those of us not in the US can't really take any comfort in that since we wouldn't have bigger problems than our pensions collapsing.

討論​

評論 1:

Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.

To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affects the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.

If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddits" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

評論 2:

Massive US valuation haircut a US stocks get repriced closer to emerging market stocks to reflect political risk.

評論 3:

U.S. is completely rerated if this happens: what keeps money flowing in industry and equities is bipartisan consensus around the rule of law. Truly disturbing to see anyone who claims to understand the markets who doesn’t get this basic point. This is why the US equities market is so much larger than any other. Look to emerging markets if you want to see what to expect.

評論 4:

I am genuinely more concerned about United States invading Greenland at the moment. The rhetoric coming from Trump's administration has been growing increasingly disturbing these past two weeks. If the United States commits any military action against a NATO member, then I can potentially see a steep withdrawal away from the United States market which will likely result in a worldwide economic depression.

評論 5:

So, all of this was loaded into my calculations that led me to sell all my US stocks and dollars seven weeks ago. I think the US is heading for some seriously turbulent times. I don't see any realistic barriers to block the outcome you outlined, I think he will do everything he can to ensure the democrats never see government again. I think he will succeed in the short term. The rhetoric is too polarised. The checks and balances are now shown to be worthless. People talk of impeachment and it just makes me laugh given what he got away with during his last term, and since. The adults have been purged from the room, replaced with morons with only loyalty to Trump.

The most dangerous few years for the world that I have seen in my lifetime. Trump is a man with no principles, little intellect and now, too much power.

25. r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Mar 31, 2025​

這篇文章的核心討論主題是 「每日股市討論與資源分享」，主要內容包括以下幾點：

  1. 每日股市討論：

    • 提供週一至週五的常態性討論（包括特定主題日），涵蓋市場動態、個股分析等。

  2. 實用工具與資源連結：

    • 推薦多個股市分析工具（如Finviz圖表與基本面數據、Bloomberg新聞）和新聞來源（StreetInsider、Reuters），協助投資者追蹤市場趨勢與突發事件。

  3. 自主學習指引：

    • 鼓勵初學者自行透過Investopedia等工具查閱基礎術語（如EPS），再深入提問或分享所學。

  4. 特定討論串引導：

    • 將投資組合評估（Rate My Portfolio）、技術分析（Technicals Tuesday）、選擇權交易（Options Thursday）、基本面分析（Fundamentals Friday）等主題分流至專屬討論區，保持版面秩序。

總結：文章旨在提供一個結構化的每日股市交流平台，並整合實用資源與分眾討論空間，以滿足不同層次的投資者需求。

內容​

These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts.

Some helpful links:

If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

討論​

評論 1:

yet another bloodbath

Thanks Trump.

評論 2:

CHINESE STATE MEDIA: CHINA, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA REACH A CONSENSUS THAT THREE SIDES WILL JOINTLY RESPOND TO THE U.S. TARIFFS

Art of the deal.

評論 3:

Jim Cramer on CNBC: “I can’t think of a dumber day to buy stocks than today.”

Thanks for the rally, Jim.

評論 4:

Free fall. What a disaster the orange man is

評論 5:

2024 gains essentially erased at this point. Up only 5% YoY. It would’ve been so easy to not fuck up the markets this bad.

總體討論重點

25篇討論重點條列式總結​

1. 廣泛關稅的經濟影響 1​

  • 重點：美國擬對所有貿易夥伴課徵20%關稅，衝擊依賴進口的產業（如汽車、電子）。
  • 細節：
    • 企業成本（COGS）上升，利潤受壓縮。
    • 供應鏈重組可能引發通脹與市場波動。

2. 市場對政治消息的反應矛盾 2​

  • 重點：關稅消息後市場先跌後反彈，反映情緒不可預測。
  • 細節：
    • 投資者對政策與市場脫鉤現象感到困惑。

3. 中、日、韓聯合反制美國關稅 3​

  • 重點：亞洲三國協調行動，減少對美市場依賴。
  • 細節：
    • 推動區域自由貿易，加速供應鏈重組。

4. 馬斯克政治立場拖累特斯拉股價 4​

  • 重點：馬斯克參與政府削減計劃引發公眾抵制。
  • 細節：
    • 特斯拉股價年內跌34%，業務放緩加劇壓力。

5. 2022Q3市場動盪與聯準會政策 5​

  • 重點：升息環境下股債雙跌，停滯性通膨風險浮現。
  • 細節：
    • 消費者信心下滑，但未達歷史低點。

6. 特斯拉目標價與交付量遭下調 6​

  • 重點：Stifel將2025年交付增長預期從17%砍至4%。
  • 細節：
    • 股價盤前跌5.3%，反映市場對執行力疑慮。

7. 市場低位布局策略 7​

  • 重點：投資者觀望是否進場撿便宜。
  • 細節：
    • 關注反彈潛力強的標的（如科技、消費）。

8. 2025Q1美股創兩年最差表現 8​

  • 重點：標普跌4.5%、納指暴跌10.4%，關稅不確定性為主因。
  • 細節：
    • 科技巨頭市值蒸發2兆美元。

9. 擇時投資的困境 9​

  • 重點：持有現金者面臨重新進場時機難題。
  • 細節：
    • 討論分批買入（DCA）vs. 等待復甦訊號。

10. 高盛上調美國衰退機率至35% 10​

  • 重點：關稅政策恐加劇通脹與經濟放緩。
  • 細節：
    • GDP成長率預測下修至1%。

11. 個人投資組合配置合理性 11​

  • 重點：年輕投資者檢視個股占比過高風險。
  • 細節：
    • 尋求指數基金與主動選股的平衡。

12. 川普關稅計畫的財政爭議 12​

  • 重點：政府稱關稅可增6兆美元收入，專家質疑可行性。
  • 細節：
    • 成本恐轉嫁消費者，實際稅收低於預期。

13. 比亞迪威脅特斯拉市場地位 13​