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2025-04-01-top

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討論重點

以下是29篇文章的條列式重點總結,並附上對應的錨點連結與逐條細節說明:


1. Trump to announce new 20% tariffs this week on every single US trading partner

重點

  1. 關稅的廣泛衝擊:全面性20%關稅對各產業的潛在影響,不確定性干擾投資決策。
  2. 經濟連鎖效應
    • 消費者需求疲軟下,進口商品價格上漲可能進一步抑制消費。
    • 企業成本(COGS)增加,壓縮利潤而非保護本土產業。
  3. 投資策略困惑
    • 市場不確定性導致對SP500 ETF的進退兩難(DCA、撤出或觀望)。
    • 尋求其他投資者應對關稅風險的經驗。

2. Accenture (ACN) one of the hardest hit public consulting companies

重點

  1. 政府合約節省金額比較:表格列出Deloitte、Booz Allen等公司的節省金額與合約數量。
  2. 上市公司波動:Accenture因合約減少2.4億美元,股價下跌12%。

3. What is everyone doing investment wise about economic uncertainty?

重點

  1. 自動化工具限制:Wealthfront風險等級調整與分散目標衝突(增加美債、減少國際股票)。
  2. 個人化需求:需平衡高風險非流動資產(私募股權)與流動性緩衝。

4. History of U.S. Bear vs Bull Markets

重點

  1. 牛熊市週期:牛市持續時間通常長於熊市,長期投資策略的合理性。

5. A company I bought stock in is awarding preferred shares to common stock holders

重點

  1. 優先股股利困惑:醫用大麻公司轉型加密貨幣後,每1000股普通股配1股優先股,投資者對權益與申領流程不清。

6. 401k - company does not offer matching until after 1 year probation

重點

  1. 投資順序建議:緊急備用金>Roth IRA>HSA>無匹配的401(k)。

7. Investing in Germany (DAX) as an American

重點

  1. 匯率影響績效:DAX ETF(美元計價)落後指數30%,尋求避險或替代方案。

8. Yield difference between Money market funds vs regular government funds

重點

  1. 稅收與收益率差異:貨幣市場基金(40%)與長期債券基金(29%)的免稅市政債券收益率落差原因。

9. How can I optimize my situation?

重點

  1. 購屋儲蓄計畫:每月新增965美元投入頭期款,5年目標55,645美元。

10. Largest premium paid on public company acquisition?

重點

  1. 極端溢價案例:探討1900%溢價收購的產業集中性與歷史案例。

(因篇幅限制,以下簡列標題,完整細節請參照原文錨點)

11. Daily General Discussion Thread

重點:開放討論與資源導向的投資問答框架。

12. Vanguard's VMFXX safety concerns

重點:政治風險下貨幣市場基金的穩定性評估。

13. [ESOP transfers advice

文章核心重點

  1. Trump to announce new 20% tariffs this week:美國計劃對所有貿易夥伴徵收20%關稅,引發市場對產業衝擊、消費抑制及投資策略調整的擔憂。
  2. Accenture (ACN) one of the hardest hit public consulting companies:Accenture因政府合約流失2.4億美元導致股價暴跌12%,凸顯上市公司在政府專案中的財務風險。
  3. What is everyone doing investment wise about economic uncertainty?:投資者探討如何調整自動化工具配置以分散美國經濟風險,質疑傳統模型在特殊環境下的適用性。
  4. History of U.S. Bear vs Bull Markets:歷史數據顯示牛市持續時間普遍長於熊市,支持長期投資策略優於市場擇時。
  5. A company I bought stock in is awarding preferred shares to common stock holders:投資者對醫用大麻公司轉型後發放的優先股股利分配方式及權益歸屬感到困惑。
  6. 401k - company does not offer matching until after 1 year probation:討論無雇主匹配時如何優先配置退休資金(如Roth IRA、HSA)以最大化稅務效益。
  7. Investing in Germany (DAX) as an American:美國投資者發現DAX ETF績效落後指數30%,尋求降低匯率影響的替代投資方案。
  8. Yield difference between Money market funds vs regular government funds:探討貨幣市場基金與長期債券基金的免稅市政債券收益率差異擴大原因(40% vs 29%)。
  9. How can I optimize my situation?:規劃將緊急預備金轉為購屋頭期款儲蓄,尋求5年內達成55,645美元目標的優化策略。
  10. Largest premium paid on public company acquisition?:詢問歷史上極端高溢價收購案例(如1900%溢價)及其產業背景。
  11. Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - March 31, 2025:開放式投資討論串,強調自主研究與個人化提問框架的重要性。
  12. Will money market accounts, such as Vanguard's VMFXX, remain safe and stable?:因政治環境擔憂,重新評估70%流動資產集中於VMFXX貨幣基金的風險。
  13. Seeking advice on ESOP transfers:員工持股計畫(ESOP)股票轉移面臨「直接兌現」或「繁瑣轉換程序」的稅務與便利性權衡。
  14. My pension funds won't allow me to move money to cash without written notice:英國退休金持有者探討避開關稅衝擊的全球分散投資策略與監管限制。
  15. Commodities and Precious Metals up but Companies Stocks Down:分析大宗商品價格與相關公司股價背離現象,評估逆向投資機會。
  16. Need help with my portfolio:檢視全球股市ETF與科技ETF的重疊問題,考慮調整區域配置以優化分散性。
  17. Building a $2,000/month REIT portfolio for retirement:徵求對REITs組合(如VNQ、DLR)的股息與增長平衡建議,偏好美元計價資產。
  18. Where should I move my profit sharing to?:探討2萬美元利潤分享帳戶的最優轉移選項(如IRA),以達成27年後退休目標。
  19. Stock Portfolio Analyzer?:尋找具AI分析功能(如52週新高標記、賣出建議)的進階投資組合工具。
  20. Anyone here with experience building or working with market makers:徵求市場做市商或流動性提供者的實務經驗分享。
  21. Thoughts on my portfolio?:評估Roth IRA中被動型組合(SCHD、FXAIX、REITs)的稅務效率與多元性。
  22. Need Help with My Investment Strategy:22歲醫學生規劃300k高風險長期資金配置,比較VTI、QQQM等ETF與投入時機策略。
  23. DBS vs OCBC - Which Singapore Bank is the better investment?:比較星展(高ROE/溢價)與華僑銀行(低P/E/保守)的長期投資價值與股息收益。
  24. Looking for a mid-priced brokerage that will offer advice/research:尋求介於Fidelity(低成本)與美林(高服務)之間、提供實質投資建議的券商。
  25. **US Dollar up or Down after Tariffs

目錄


1. Trump to announce new 20% tariffs this week on every single US trading partner, not just the initial group of 10-15 countries prev. stated

這篇文章的核心討論主題是「全面性關稅政策對經濟與投資的潛在影響」,主要圍繞以下幾個重點:

  1. 關稅的廣泛衝擊
    探討美國若對「所有貿易夥伴」實施20%全面關稅,將對哪些產業造成最大影響(相較於過去針對性關稅如汽車、葡萄酒等),以及這種政策的不確定性如何干擾投資決策。

  2. 經濟連鎖效應

    • 消費者需求:在美國消費力已疲軟的背景下,關稅可能推高進口商品價格,進一步抑制消費。
    • 企業利潤:多數美國企業依賴海外生產,關稅可能增加其成本(COGS),反而壓縮利潤,而非保護本土產業。
  3. 投資者的困惑與策略

    • 市場不確定性導致投資者對標普500指數ETF(SP500)的進退兩難,討論是否該繼續定期定額投資(DCA)、撤出市場或觀望。
    • 尋求其他投資者應對關稅風險的實際經驗(如「持有不動」或「完全退出」)。
  4. 政策背景與消息來源
    引用多家媒體報導(如Reuters、AP),指出此議題源自特朗普提出的「全面互惠關稅」政策構想,加劇市場對2025年後貿易環境的擔憂。

總結:文章聚焦於「全面關稅」對產業、消費端、企業獲利及個人投資策略的多層次影響,反映市場在政策不確定性下的焦慮與決策困境。

內容

What industries will this impact the most? Previous tariffs announcements have been easy to understand what industries it will impact (for example auto tariffs, wine tariffs, etc.). What would a sweeping 20% tariff on virtually every single US trading partner mean for investing?

Will it lead to lower consumer demand in an already weak US consumer?

Will it lead to higher profits for US based companies? Don't most US companies manufacturer outside of the US, so their operating costs/COGS will increase?

Is anyone still buying SP500 ETFs, or have people begun to sell? Not sure what to do with my portfolio, or if I should dollar cost average buy vs. sell. If anyone can share how they are navigating this uncertainty - leaving the market completely or riding it out.

---

Sources

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/trump-says-reciprocal-tariffs-will-target-all-countries-2025-

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-third-term-tariffs-live-updates-b2724698.html

https://apnews.com/article/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-liberation-day-april-2-86639b7b6358af65e2cbad31f8c8ae2b

討論

評論 1:

At this point I have no idea why I invest with any confidence

評論 2:

Will impact everything. Every raw material, from iron ore to rubber, silica, coffee, rare earths, wood, cocoa just went up in price by 20%. Put on top of 20% of parts, components and chemical and you have a recipe for a major stagflation.

評論 3:

Mad king. No rationale on decisions. Just pure ego. Every country is forming a front. The market is doing tango on a cliff. He has to stop

評論 4:

Liberation Day = Liberating us from our 401Ks and our jobs.

評論 5:

He sings a different tune every day. Wake me up when he shuts up and is on his way back to Florida.


2. Accenture (ACN) one of the hardest hit public consulting companies 240.3 million USD in contracts removed, stock down 12%

這篇文章的核心討論主題是不同公司在政府合約中的表現與節省金額的比較,並特別提及部分公司的上市狀態與股價變動(如Accenture)。

具體重點包括:

  1. 公司節省金額與合約數量:以表格形式列出各公司(如Deloitte、Booz Allen Hamilton等)在政府合約中聲稱的節省金額(Claimed savings)與合約數量(Number of contracts)。
  2. 非上市公司與上市公司的對比:指出Deloitte是非上市公司,而其他公司(如Accenture)是上市公司,並提到Accenture近期的股價下跌(12%)。

整體而言,文章聚焦於企業在政府專案中的效率與財務表現,並隱含對上市公司市場波動的觀察。

內容

Deloitte is not publicly traded, but other firms on the list such as Accenture are, which is current down 12% over the last month.

||Claimed savings ($mn)|Number of contracts|

|:-|:-|:-|

||

||||

||||

|Deloitte|371.8|129|

|Booz Allen Hamilton|207.1|60|

|Guidehouse|376.1|54|

|Accenture|240.3|30|

|General Dynamics|202.8|16|

|IBM|34.3|10|

|Leidos|78.5|7|

|CGI Federal|0.5|7|

|SAIC|7.6|5|

|HII Mission Technologies|0|0|

討論

評論 1:

what is IBM doing different? more complicated tech integrations? interesting chart to say the least. Plus things are just getting started.

評論 2:

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/f546506d-7f2d-4f64-976d-3f73e48333d7

評論 3:

removed by whom?

評論 4:

This will be intersting

評論 5:

they will revamp the greater than > sign on their logo..now..


3. What is everyone doing investment wise about economic uncertainty?

这篇文章的核心討論主題是:在當前美國經濟不確定性增加的背景下,如何調整投資組合的風險配置以有效分散風險,尤其是當自動化投資工具(如Wealthfront)的傳統策略可能無法適應特殊經濟環境時。具體要點包括:

  1. 風險調整的矛盾
    作者降低風險等級(從10/10降至2.5/10)後,發現自動化工具增加美國債券、減少外國股票的比例,但這與其「避免過度集中於美國經濟」的目標相衝突。作為房主,他認為此舉反而加劇了對美國經濟的單一曝險。

  2. 工具限制與個人化需求
    質疑標準化模型(如Wealthfront)是否適用於當前美國可能面臨的孤立經濟風險,並尋求更靈活的策略來分散風險(例如增加國際配置或另類資產)。

  3. 整體投資組合的複雜性
    補充說明其投資組合包含高風險非流動性資產(如私募股權、天使投資),而流動部分(如Wealthfront帳戶)需作為緩衝,凸顯傳統風險等級調整可能與實際需求脫節。

  4. 個人投資紀律
    強調避免主動投機(如短線操作、加密貨幣持倉),但需在自動化工具與主動風險管理間取得平衡。

總結:作者的核心焦慮在於「如何在經濟不確定性中,透過更細緻的資產配置實現真正的風險分散」,同時反思自動化工具的局限性,並尋求符合自身多重風險曝險(房產、非流動投資)的優化策略。

內容

Context: mid 40’s, self-employed, homeowner.

I’m very financially literate, but took my (investing) toys away years ago when I proved to myself I wasn’t beating the market.

I now invest primary through Wealthfront, and at the start of the year my risk was set at 10/10. I’ve been steadily ratcheting it down as things get more and more uncertain, and I’m now at 2.5/10 risk.

My concern is that the standard financial return modeling used by tools such as Wealthfront may not cover the situation we are facing here in the US. For example, as I take “risk” down, domestic bonds goes up, and foreign equity allocation is going down. I’m not sure I agree with that as an effective strategy to deal with an isolated US. As a homeowner, I’m already very exposed to the US economy, so this feels like it’s concentrating risk rather than moving to a lower risk profile.

Thoughts?

[Edit based on some comment threads]

The above understates my overall risk profile after these changes. I’m an accredited investor. I’ve got a ton of other risks in the portfolio (late stage private equity, angel investments, MFR) that are much harder to migrate to lower risk levels quickly. So this liquid part is acting as a “shock absorber”.

[More edits]

“Take away my toys” means I don’t short the market or use options. I do have some individual stocks, but don’t make a habit of it. I sometimes hold vested public stock.

I also make a habit to liquidate whatever crypto I receive as soon as possible. I’m not in the business of holding those risks.

討論

評論 1:

No change. Keep at the same risk level as I don’t want to miss when there is a recovery.

I was in your choose, playing with Fidelity Go risk portfolio and lowering it during crisis. It’s not helping as you lose the performance every time the market is recovering.

Now I have an advisor to avoid putting news or emotions into my investments. For now, we keep the financial plan on track but might delay investing my future bonus and keep cash powder due to recession and crash risk.

評論 2:

100% cash. The administration has promised to destroy my 401k for “reasons.” I’m 2 years from retirement, can’t ride this into a deep recession. All new money being deposited is going into stocks though.

評論 3:

early 60s here, the dotcom was was my baptism in the market. I've seen many cycles and downturns and good times.

I have moved 85% of my portfolio into cash to protect it. When I see rational economic policies from any administrations I'll get back in.

This is not trying to "time the market" for me, it's about capital preservation.

評論 4:

If doing DCA doesn’t ruin your day to day I don’t see the harm in it at least until things get really dire. The markets are down but still historically high compared to the last 20 years.

I’ll continue to DCA unless Trump actually crashes the economy for real. I’ve budgeted for it and even though things are bad it’s not too late for the morons in charge of all this instability to change their minds when they see all the backlash.

評論 5:

dca, dividend drip. also wealthfront but we don't use their service, only HYSA. business cash flow goes to stock brokerage account, buy more dividend stocks. $3k-4k a week.


4. History of U.S. Bear vs Bull Markets

根據提供的文章連結(美國愛達荷大學的資料),其核心討論主題是:

「歷史數據顯示,牛市(上漲市場)的持續時間通常比熊市(下跌市場)更長,並探討兩者的週期性特徵與市場趨勢。」

具體要點可能包括:

  1. 牛熊市的定義:簡述牛市(價格持續上升)與熊市(價格持續下跌)的標準。
  2. 歷史數據分析:通過統計數據比較牛熊市的平均持續時間與幅度,凸顯牛市的優勢。
  3. 市場週期規律:解釋為何牛市通常更長,可能涉及經濟擴張、投資者心理等因素。
  4. 投資啟示:長期投資策略的合理性(如「時間在市場中」勝過「擇時」)。

由於連結內容未直接檢視,以上總結基於標題和常見金融分析框架推論。如需更精確的摘要,建議提供具體段落或數據。

內容

The data shows that bull markets last longer than bear markets. https://www.uidaho.edu/-/media/UIdaho-Responsive/Files/Extension/county/Latah/finance/history-of-bull-and-bear-markets.pdf?la=en&hash=3FE66B60665F69ABF4A8CAEF3383C805F868ED0F

討論

評論 1:

Note that history does not show what happens when the President of the US causes a recession, on purpose. One who starts fights will allies, that puts tariffs on allies, that threatens to take Greenland by force has not been ruled out, that threatens to invade and take the Panama canal, nor one who ridicules Canada and says they should be the 51st state, and has threatened to redraw the borders.

One who threatens US car makers in a private call if they raise prices on their cars, and then publicly says he could care less if they raise prices.

All these comparisons are off the table when you have a President purposefully tanking the economy.

In other words these historical charts do not include an imbecile dictating economic policy.

評論 2:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average did not return to its 1929 pre-crash high of 381.17 until November 23, 1954. Do you remember the last time the U.S. implemented sweeping tariffs? No? It was the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.

評論 3:

Here’s to hoping that we get there soon!

Trump’s actions are unprecedented. I am not convinced we are adequately afraid of the worst case scenario.

評論 4:

The Great depression took over 15 years to get back to break even

評論 5:

We should take into account how drastically the investing landscape has changed over the last decade. Retail investors are entering the market at record rates thanks to how accessible it's become. Apps like Robinhood, fractional shares, faster settlement times, and instant deposits have made the market a completely different beast compared to the past.

There are Gen Z investors now. When I was a kid, I had no concept or interest in the stock market. My parents had to physically go into a TD Ameritrade branch to open an account. Today, you can sign up, get approved, and start trading all on the same day—sometimes within minutes.

These tools have not only lowered the barrier to entry, but they’ve also changed investor behavior—encouraging more frequent trading, risk-taking, and even turning investing into a form of entertainment.

All of these advances have changed how we invest, and we should be cautious when comparing today’s market to previous eras like the Great Depression or the Dot-Com Bubble. The context is just different.

So, stay the course.


5. A company I bought stock in is awarding preferred shares to common stock holders

這篇文章的核心討論主題是:
一名投資者對某醫用大麻公司(現轉型為加密貨幣相關企業)發放的「特別優先股股利」分配方式及相關權益的困惑,具體包括以下重點:

  1. 公司轉型與股利政策

    • 公司從醫用大麻業務轉向加密貨幣投資,並更名重組。
    • 為慶祝轉型,宣布按持股比例發放「優先股」作為特別股利(每1000股普通股配1股優先股)。
  2. 投資者的疑問

    • 優先股的定義:與普通股的區別(如股息優先權、投票權等)。
    • 分配方式:是否需主動申領?優先股會自動存入賬戶,還是需聯繫公司?
    • 持股影響:優先股是額外發放,還是需用普通股兌換?
    • 實際操作:如何確保自己(持有20,000股,應得20股優先股)收到權益?
  3. 尋求協助

    • 投資者對金融術語和流程不熟悉,希望獲得解釋與操作指引。

總結:文章聚焦於「企業轉型中的特殊股利分配」對散戶投資者造成的困惑,並探討優先股的性質與實務處理方式。

內容

I’m totally in the weeds with this.

Basically this medicinal marijuana company I bought stocks in started buying up a bunch of crypto and renamed itself in the process. As a way to celebrate their rebranding and acquisition of assets, they announced a special dividend of one preferred share for every 1000 common shares held before November 25, 2024. I have like 20000 shares.

I have no idea what this means. What’s a preferred share? How do I collect on this? Are they just going to hand it over? Do I contact them? Will it just appear in my portfolio one day? Am I trading my common shares for preferred shares? Or do they give me preferred shares in addition to my common stock.

Anything you can tell me would be helpful. Thanks.

討論

評論 1:

Also if the company gets liquidated at any point in time, preferred shares get paid out first. Well, debt holders first, followed by preferred and then common shares. You can also have different voting rights based on the class of share you hold.

評論 2:

Preferred shares are owed a dividend every year (or quarter, or every two quarters, or whatever.) If the company doesn’t pay that dividend, it gets rolled over and accumulates.

The company is not allowed to pay dividends to the common shareholders until they’ve paid the balance owed to the preferred shareholders. They have to get their dividends first, which is why they’re “preferred”.

If they don’t intend to pay dividends, they will just let the preferred dividend accumulate and it’s not great for the shareholder.

評論 3:

A special dividend would be on top of your existing shares. Sometimes companies will spin off a separate ticker and award to shareholders. It happened to me with Brookfield a couple times.

I assume this is a private company? Do you have a special stock account from them like Shareworks? I would assume it just shows up eventually.

評論 4:

I have nothing useful to add, but I did want to thank you for the chuckle. "In the weeds" and "medical marijuana stock" was a good one. 😆

評論 5:

Preferred shares usually mean a certain dividend payout that has to happen before common shareholders get a dividend.  if the company doesn't pay dividends today, then likely it means nothing other more pieces of paper you own.


6. 401k - company does not offer matching until after 1 year probation

這篇文章的核心討論主題是:在不享有公司401(k)匹配的情況下,如何優先安排個人投資與儲蓄(如401(k)、Roth IRA、緊急備用金、HSA)以達到最佳財務效益。具體探討以下幾點:

  1. 401(k)最大化與否的權衡:在無公司匹配時,是否仍應優先存滿401(k)(考慮稅務優惠與長期增長潛力)。
  2. 投資順序的建議
    • 確保緊急備用金(緊急資金)。
    • 優先最大化Roth IRA(稅後增長免稅)。
    • 比較401(k)與HSA(健康儲蓄帳戶)的優先級(後者可能因三重稅務優惠更優先)。
  3. HSA的潛在優勢:若符合資格,HSA可能比無匹配的401(k)更具稅務效益(免稅存入、增長與提領)。

整體而言,問題圍繞「優化個人財務資源分配」的策略選擇。

內容

Hello,

If my company doesn't match, is it still recommended for me to try and max out my 401k? I know I have to max out Roth IRA and make sure I have emergency funds. But would putting more into 401k after that be beneficial? Or should I max my HSA first?

I know there's a recommended order of investing.

Thank you!

討論

評論 1:

All the more you can save the better.

評論 2:

HSA has better tax advantages than a non-matched 401k. If you have leftover funds after the HSA, the non-matched 401k is still better than say a brokerage account (assuming it’s funds earmarked for retirement).


7. Investing in Germany (DAX) as an American

這篇文章的核心討論主題可以總結為以下兩點:

  1. 美國投資者投資德國DAX指數的績效差異問題
    作者觀察到,以美元計價的Global X DAX Germany ETF(DAX:NASDAQ)與歐元計價的DAX指數表現存在顯著差異(5年累積報酬落後30個百分點),並試圖理解匯率變動(如歐元兌美元走勢)未能完全解釋此差距的原因。尤其困惑的是,儘管5年後美元兌歐元匯率回到原點(~0%變動),但ETF報酬卻未同步「追回」指數表現。

  2. 尋求更佳投資德國市場的替代方案
    作者在確認DAX指數本身符合投資需求後,進一步詢問是否有其他更有效的方式(如不同ETF、金融工具或策略)能降低匯率影響或提升對德國股市的曝險,並開放接受任何建議。

關鍵議題延伸

內容

I am looking at possibly investing some in Germany. I looked through a couple different ways to get exposure and looked through the DAX composition and performance. This seemed satisfactory to me, but I have some questions about what is the best way to invest in DAX as an American. I was looking at the Global X DAX Germany ETF (DAX:NASDAQ) and noticed that when compared to the index price in EUR, the US ETF has underperformed by over 30pp. Looking at the chart, it makes sense that the US ETF outperformed until mid-2021, and then underperformed until mid-2022 because it matches periods when the EUR strengthened and then weakened against the USD, but at the end of 5Y USDEUR is basically at ~0% but the overall return is vastly different. Why did the US ETF not "catch up" after the EUR strengthened into 2023? What am I missing here? Also, is there any better way to get this exposure to DAX/Germany in general? Open to any ideas.

討論

評論 1:

maybe r/Finanzen gives you a helping hand…


8. Yield difference between Money market funds vs regular government funds

核心討論主題總結:

這篇文章的核心問題在於探討 「為何不同類型的債券基金之間,股息收益率(dividend yield)的差異比例存在顯著區別」,具體比較以下兩組基金:

  1. 第一組(貨幣市場基金)

    • VUSXX(美國國庫券基金,收益率4.24%)vs. VCTXX(加州市政債券基金,收益率2.49%)。
    • 差異:40%(VCTXX比VUSXX低40%)。
    • 關鍵區別:VCTXX免聯邦稅(可能免州稅),但收益率降幅遠高於稅收優惠的理論解釋。
  2. 第二組(非貨幣市場的長期債券基金)

    • VGLT(長期美國國債ETF,收益率4.72%)vs. VCAIX(加州長期市政債券基金,收益率3.34%)。
    • 差異:29%(VCAIX比VGLT低29%)。
    • 關鍵區別:VCAIX同樣免聯邦稅,但收益率降幅較小。

深層問題:

作者試圖理解:

  • 為何同為「免稅市政債券 vs. 應稅國債」,貨幣市場基金(第一組)的收益率差異(40%)遠大於長期債券基金(第二組的29%)
  • 可能影響因素包括:
    • 基金類型差異(貨幣市場基金 vs. 長期債券基金)的利率敏感度、流動性風險。
    • 稅收優惠的定價效應:市政債券的免稅價值可能在不同期限的債券中反映不同。
    • 市場供需或地方債信風險(如加州市政債券的特定風險)。

簡言之:

文章聚焦於 「稅收待遇、基金類型與期限如何影響市政債券與國債的收益率差異比例」,並對貨幣市場基金與長期債券基金的差異提出疑問。

內容

I wonder what can explain the difference of dividend yield in the first pair vs. the second pair?

Why is VCTXX significantly lower than VUSXX (40% difference) , whereas VCAIX is only 30% lower than VGLT

The first pair:

vs. the second pair which are not money market funds

討論

評論 1:

To compare the yield - you need to look at what's called the TEY or tax equivalent yield. Munis are tax exempt and may be state tax exempt depending on the investor's state of residency.

Muni's are generally better for people who are in high tax brackets.

Sample tey calculator at Fidelity site here - https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/taxyieldcalc/

評論 2:

Money market funds are extreme short term duration, the ETFs you are comparing to are intermediate and long duration. You are looking at different spots on the yield curve.

評論 3:

Vanguard California Municipal Money Market Fund’s investment objective is to seek to provide current income that is exempt from both federal and California personal income taxes while maintaining a stable net asset value of $1 per share.

評論 4:

Your title should be about Muni not MMF.


9. How can I optimize my situation?

這篇文章的核心討論主題是個人財務規劃與未來購屋儲蓄策略,具體聚焦於以下重點:

  1. 當前財務狀況盤點

    • 收入、資產(緊急預備金、退休帳戶、HSA等)與負債狀況(無負債)。
    • 每月收支分配比例(必要支出、娛樂、儲蓄投資)。
  2. 現有儲蓄目標的調整

    • 緊急預備金(EF)已接近6個月目標,考慮將原每月存入EF的500美元轉為「未來購屋頭期款」儲蓄。
    • 提出具體儲蓄計劃:每月新增964.78美元投入購屋基金,預估5年內達成20%頭期款目標(約55,645美元,對應房價278,226美元)。
  3. 長期財務決策的權衡

    • 是否需要重新分配資金用途(如EF轉購屋基金是否合理)。
    • 潛在盲點檢視(作者自陳可能忽略其他選項,徵求外部建議)。

整體而言,文章旨在透過量化分析,探討如何優化現有資源以實現中期購屋目標,同時維持財務穩健性。

內容

[ ] 26, income of ~$93k

[ ] Debt free; own my used car (~7k-8k in value)

[ ] ~6 month EF ($13500) in HYSA

[ ] HYSA (8,291.43) for car maintenance + future car SF

[ ] 401k - $32779.72 currently vested, 2065 Vanguard target date fund

[ ] Roth IRA - maxing out for 2025 ($6385.35 total in account currently), 80% total US index fund 20% intl index fund

[ ] Maxing out HSA ($3379.19 currently in account)

Current spending/saving/investing:

[ ] 50.05% take home (2307.18) on needs/bills

[ ] 19.31% take home (890.18) on wants (eating out, future

[ ] 20.13% take home for saving/investing (500/mnth to HYSA for EF, 427.78/mnth for maxing Roth IRA)

[ ] 15% pretax to 401k, maxing out HSA and investing (4.1% pretax) = 19.1% pretax invested

[ ] Take home (4609.92) - all previously mentioned deductions/expenses/investments (4145.15) = 464.78/mnth left over doing nothing

Ideas/notes:

[ ] Free up 500/mnth from EF since it's almost 6 months funded to go toward future house (500 + 464.78 = 964.78/mnth to house)

[ ] Not an immediate concern (at least 3-5 yrs unless my income increases substantially)

[ ] 3x income 20% DP = 55,645.27 for 278,226.36 house); if I do redirect EF to house DP, this will be possible in 5 yrs (60 mo)

[ ] Maybe I'm not thinking of all my options, but that's why I ask. Thanks in advance for any advice!

討論

無討論內容


10. Largest premium paid on public company acquisition?

这篇文章的核心討論主題是:上市公司收購案例中,支付遠高於當時股價的巨額溢價(premium)的情況。具體探討以下問題:

  1. 是否存在極端溢價收購的案例
    例如:公司股價為1美元時,收購方是否可能以20美元/股(即溢價1900%)進行全面收購。

  2. 行業特殊性
    這種高溢價收購是否集中在特定產業(如科技、生物醫藥等)。

  3. 歷史案例與背景分析
    請求提供實際案例(尤其是溢價最高的交易),並探討背後原因(如戰略價值、專利技術、市場競爭等)。

簡言之,作者關注的是「異常高溢價收購」的現象、成因及相關實證。

內容

I am curious if anyone has examples on public companies that were bought out for a large % over the share price at the time of the offer.

For example, if a company’s stock is trading at $1, is there any event a company pays $20 per share to acquire all outstanding common shares? Is this industry specific? Curious on examples with the largest premiums paid and what the circumstances were around it.

討論

評論 1:

I just cheated and used chatgpt:

  1. Medivation acquired by Pfizer (2016) • Purchase Price: $81.50 per share • Pre-rumor trading price: ~$26 • Premium: Over 200% • Context: Medivation had a blockbuster prostate cancer drug (Xtandi). Several bidders were interested (Sanofi, Pfizer, others). The high premium reflected the strategic value and competitive bidding.

  1. Zappos acquired by Amazon (2009) • Acquisition Value: ~$1.2 billion • Premium: Estimated at ~600% based on internal valuation • Context: Zappos was private but included here because it’s often cited due to Amazon’s massive valuation multiple and the high premium paid to secure the culture and customer service DNA.

  1. LinkedIn acquired by Microsoft (2016) • Purchase Price: $196 per share • Pre-announcement price: ~$131 • Premium: ~50% • Context: Strategic asset for Microsoft to build out its enterprise/social presence. Competitive dynamics also influenced the valuation.

  1. EMC acquired by Dell (2016) • Deal size: $67 billion (largest tech deal at the time) • Premium: ~28% • Context: EMC held a large stake in VMware, which added to the strategic complexity and premium.

評論 2:

Pharma company with a revolutionary drug maybe? In all likelihood you wouldn’t see a 2000% buyer’s premium ever. Information is simply too widely available.

評論 3:

Mars acquisition of kellanova?

評論 4:

Prosus is in the process of acquiring Just Eat Takeaway for something like a 50% premium.


11. Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - March 31, 2025

這篇文章的核心討論主題是 「提供一個開放且結構化的討論空間,鼓勵用戶提出投資相關問題、分享市場評論或小知識,並引導新手參考相關資源以獲取基礎知識和個人化建議」

具體重點如下:

  1. 開放討論:鼓勵用戶提出一般性問題、市場評論或簡短分享,無需單獨發文。
  2. 資源導向
    • 強調先查閱FAQ、側邊欄資訊及Wiki(如「新手入門」、「推薦書單」、「媒體資源」)。
    • 提供結構化連結,方便用戶自主學習。
  3. 個人化建議的提問框架
    • 若涉及個人財務規劃,需提供詳細背景(如年齡、收入、目標、風險承受度等),以獲得更有針對性的意見。
  4. 免責聲明
    • 提醒用戶答案僅屬網友意見,建議諮詢專業投資顧問後再做決策。

整體而言,文章旨在建立一個 兼顧自由交流與資源整合的投資討論環境,同時強調「自主研究」和「個人化資訊透明化」的重要性。

內容

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

And our side bar also has useful resources.

If you are new to investing - please refer to Wiki - Getting Started

The reading list in the wiki has a list of books ranging from light reading to advanced topics depending on your knowledge level. Link here - Reading List

The media list in the wiki has a list of reputable podcasts and videos - Podcasts and Videos

If your question is "I have $XXXXXXX, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

  • How old are you? What country do you live in?

  • Are you employed/making income? How much?

  • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)

  • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?

  • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)

  • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)

  • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?

  • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

Check the resources in the sidebar.

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!

討論

評論 1:

How you guys feeling about Trump mentioning he is considering getting a third term in relation to investing in the US

評論 2:

Stock market makes no sense. So much bad news over the weekend and yet the S&P500 will close today in the green. I wanted to pull my S&P500 investment from my 401k but couldn't do it in time for today because it takes a day to process. Glad it didn't go through.

評論 3:

It should be a wild week!

Looking forward to see how this unfolds. If the market responds positively to whatever the tariff news is then I’ll happily make some money back. If it goes down I’ll have the opportunity to buy lower. But likely I won’t make any moves.

Comfort in knowing I’ve seen this all before and in a few years (or even months) it will only be a blip.

評論 4:

Sell sell sell

評論 5:

Hi all, I have a question in regards to options and wash sales.

I have 10,000 shares of a company (CCL). I'm currently down a good chunk and have decided to sell call options on my shares to generate at least something for now.

I have about 4000 shares listed as wash sale. If I put up 60 contracts instead of 100 will it sell those shares? Does it sell based on most recently acquired? Oldest acquired? Is there a way to specify that I don't want those specific shares sold?

I use Fidelity as my broker.

Id hate to have those shares called away and not be able to at least deduct them on my taxes.


12. Will money market accounts, such as Vanguard's VMFXX, remain safe and stable?

这篇文章的核心討論主題是:在當前政治經濟環境下,是否應繼續將大部分流動資產投資於Vanguard的VMFXX貨幣市場基金(MMF),以及相關的風險評估與決策考量。具體要點包括:

  1. 投資決策的焦慮
    作者因配偶的催促而重新評估家庭流動資產的配置(近70%集中在VMFXX),反映對當前環境的不確定性。

  2. 政治因素對投資的潛在影響
    文中明確提到對川普政府近期「有問題的行動」(questionable actions)的擔憂,暗示政治風險可能影響市場穩定性或貨幣基金的安全性。

  3. 風險與監控方向
    作者尋求建議,探討是否需調整投資策略,並詢問應關注哪些指標(如政策變化、市場波動、基金表現等)以做出應對。

  4. 貨幣市場基金的特定考量
    討論聚焦於VMFXX這類低風險流動性工具,雖傳統上被視為安全,但在特殊政治經濟背景下是否仍屬穩健選擇。

總結:文章結合個人財務決策與宏觀環境的不確定性,核心在於「政治風險是否威脅貨幣市場基金的安全」及「如何動態調整流動資產配置」。

內容

Given everything that's going on, my wife has been pressing me to decide whether we should continue holding all of our liquid savings in Vanguard's VMFXX fund. It's a fair question.

Currently, nearly six figures—about 70% of our liquid assets—are invested in VMFXX. While I'm not overly concerned at the moment, the recent string of the Trump's administration questionable actions has left me feeling less than 100% confident.

Should I, and others, be concerned? What should we be keeping an eye on?

討論

評論 1:

Youre in short dated funds with an avg maturity of 24 days. Theres nothing to worry about unless you think the Treasury is going to default which has never happened.

評論 2:

Are you retired or retiring soon? That's a massive amount of money tied up in a very conservative way.

評論 3:

Most people are asking: "With all that's going on, my wife is asking if we should move everything to VMFXX". I've got many times that amount sitting in preferable VUSXX. If the gov't can no longer print money to pay me back, my account balances will be the least of my worries (not that I'll be able to check them).

評論 4:

I’m 80% in VMFXX. Things are going to get worse.

評論 5:

After 2008, the government took steps to make money market funds a lot safer. The vast majority of my emergency fund is in money market funds and I'm not worried.


13. Seeking advice on ESOP transfers

這篇文章的核心討論主題是:

「是否應將員工持股計畫(ESOP)的股票直接兌現並轉入經紀帳戶,還是經歷繁瑣的轉換程序後再轉移?同時考量稅務影響。」

具體要點包括:

  1. 選擇困境:作者擁有UPS的ESOP股票(9年累積,含5%折扣),面臨「直接賣出兌現」或「轉換為A類股票後轉移至Fidelity帳戶」的兩難。
  2. 程序複雜性:轉移需經歷繁瑣步驟(如轉換股票類別、提交文件),而直接兌現較簡單。
  3. 稅務疑慮:不確定兩種選擇的稅務差異(如資本利得稅或折扣部分的課稅)。
  4. 投資考量:股票當前價格較2015年上漲35美元,需權衡長期持有與變現再投資的利弊。

整體而言,作者尋求在「便利性」、「稅務效率」和「投資策略」之間取得平衡的建議。

內容

Here’s a quick background…I work for UPS and have 9 years worth of esop stock at what I believe is a 5% discount. I’ve stopped purchasing this via payroll deduction roughly a year ago and have 2/3 of the shares (423b shares) available to be sold/withdrawn/ transferred etc. After 9 years current price of this stock is up $35 vs. when I started buying them in 2015. After speaking with the customer service reps transferring these shares to my brokerage account (Fidelity) is going to be a pain in the ass. (Must be converted to class A shares then paperwork filed etc). Does it makes sense to just cash them out and then transfer funds into my brokerage accounts or go through the long process and hurdles of conversion and then transfer? I’m also not sure how the tax implications would impact me. Any advice would be appreciated

討論

無討論內容


14. My pension funds won't allow me to move money to cash without written notice. But I can move it between investments

这篇文章的核心討論主題是:

如何優化個人退休金(pensions)的投資配置,以應對潛在的市場風險(如關稅衝擊),同時考慮英國金融保障機制(FSCS)的限制與現有退休金計劃(Prudential和Scottish Widows)的投資選擇局限性。

具體要點包括:

  1. 投資分散策略

    • 現有退休金集中於英國市場,但作者希望避免潛在的關稅衝擊("2nd tariff blood bath"),因此考慮是否應轉向全球分散投資(如全球指數基金 "global all cap")或單一市場(如日本)。
    • 現有退休金提供者(Prudential和Scottish Widows)的基金選擇有限,可能限制優化配置的靈活性。
  2. 退休金鎖定與流動性

    • 資金目前鎖定至55歲,但可轉移至其他英國銀行,需權衡分散存放以符合FSCS的85,000英鎊保障上限。
  3. 風險管理與保障

    • 在調整投資策略時,需兼顧市場風險(如關稅)與英國金融體系的安全性(如銀行分散與FSCS保護)。

總結:作者尋求在退休金投資的「地理分散性」、「風險規避」與「英國監管限制」之間取得平衡,並探討具體的調整選項(如全球基金或日本市場)。

內容

These two pensions are mainly targeted at the states (by choice) ad the rest of my savings and investments are spread around the rest of the world. To keep clear from the upcoming 2nd tariff blood bath would it be wiser to go global all cap or move it to Japan?

The pensions are with Pru and Scottish widows, both have very limiting fund choices (just look at the funds available.)

Both pensions are locked up tight till I'm 55. I can move them into different banks but its best to keep money spread between banks in the UK for the FSCS £85k protection

討論

評論 1:

If your first choice was cash, maybe you could put it in BIL, SGOV or a similar ETF.

評論 2:

Good god. The best thing that can happen to the average investor is to set to sp500 and then lose online access.

評論 3:

!remindme 2 months


15. Commodities and Precious Metals up but Companies Stocks Down

該文章的核心討論主題是:在不穩定的市場環境下,當大宗商品與貴金屬(如農產品、能源、林產品、金屬、金/銀等)的期貨價格持續上漲,但相關生產與礦業公司的股價卻隨大盤下跌時(例如近期金銀市場的情況),此時是否適合投資這類公司的股票?

具體探討的重點包括:

  1. 市場分歧現象:期貨價格上漲與公司股價下跌之間的背離原因(如市場情緒、流動性危機、避險需求等)。
  2. 投資機會評估
    • 大宗商品公司股價是否被低估?
    • 期貨價格上漲是否能轉化為企業盈利,進而帶動股價回升?
  3. 風險因素
    • 宏觀經濟不確定性(如通脹、利率政策)對商品價格與企業成本的雙重影響。
    • 市場系統性風險(如股市整體下跌)對個股的拖累效應。
  4. 策略建議:是否應在此時「逆向投資」這類資產,或需等待更明確的信號?

本質上,這是一個關於「市場錯位時機下的價值投資判斷」的討論。

內容

During high market instability do you think it is good to purchase companies that produce and mine Commodities & Precious Metals (Agricultural, Energy, Forest products, Metals, Gold/Silver), others) if the futures prices are still rising but the companies stocks are falling with the general market like what has happened recently with gold and silver?

討論

評論 1:

this is a common misconception, "well if the price of <underlying commodity> is going up, than the producers of that commodity should also be going up". and it may be true, or it may not be true. generally the profit spread of producers of any given commodity is influenced by:

  • degree of contango of the curve, and the rate of change of it
  • fuel costs
  • financing costs

both oil, and its refined heating oil/diseal have been rising, and 10y financing rates are also increasing. also ex-gold, commody prices in the near term have given back some of last falls gains. so its not a suprise that producers are being sold (not to mention their overall beta to the market)

評論 2:

Some yes, not all: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/06/gold-copper-oil-price-outlook-2025.html?&qsearchterm=commodities

If the world economy slows prices can drop. If the dollar gains strength, prices can drop (commodities are priced in dollars).

I think precious metals are going to rise further. Not sure about oil, agriculture, common metals.

評論 3:

A good rule of thumb is, never buy high. Also, I would recommend safer options such as index’s and ETF’s.


16. Need help with my portfolio

這篇文章的核心討論主題是:

投資組合中的ETF重疊問題以及資產配置調整建議

具體要點包括:

  1. ETF重疊疑慮:作者指出自己目前投資的兩檔ETF(EUNL.DE全球股市與QDVE.DE標普500資訊科技板塊)可能存在高度重疊,尤其是科技股部分。
  2. 配置調整的考量:作者考慮是否應停止投資標普500科技ETF,轉而分散到其他區域(如歐洲市場),以平衡全球曝險。
  3. 尋求建議:徵詢他人意見,探討如何優化長期定期投資策略(如每月200歐元的分配方式)。

關鍵問題:如何避免過度集中特定產業或區域,並透過多元化降低風險。

內容

Hi everyone, in agost will make an tear since I started my portfolio,.I have been putting 200 euros in two ETF, but I think I think I have to much of and overlap, I have EUNL.DE and QDVE.DE.

One is all.world and the other one SP500 information technology sector, so I think there is a big overlap between them.

Do you guys have any advice? Should I stop adding money to the sp500 and and instead starting putting in another one like something focused on Europe, plus the all world?

Please let me know.

討論

無討論內容


17. Building a $2,000/month REIT portfolio for retirement — Feedback welcome!

這篇文章的核心討論主題是:
「如何優化每月2,000美元的REITs投資組合,以平衡股息收入與長期增長,並聚焦美元收益」

具體內容涵蓋以下重點:

  1. 投資策略目標

    • 每月定期投資(2,000美元),透過IBKR平台買入REITs。
    • 追求股息收入(如退休後依賴現金流)與長期資本增值的平衡。
    • 偏好以美元計價的資產。
  2. 現有組合分析

    • 分散配置於不同REIT類型(如綜合型ETF-VNQ/SCHH、商業地產-WPC、數據中心-DLR/EQIX、賭場-VICI、月配息個股-O)。
    • 提問潛在風險(如數據中心比重過高、是否需要調整標的)。
  3. 尋求建議

    • 請求社群評估組合的合理性(例如產業集中度、標的替代方案)。
    • 強調長期股息再投資的規劃。

整體而言,作者希望透過社群反饋,驗證或調整其REITs配置,以達成穩健的被動收入與增長目標。

內容

I’m planning to invest $2,000/month into REITs using IBKR. I want a mix of dividend income and long-term growth, with a focus on USD income. Here’s the portfolio I’m considering: • VNQ – $500/month (broad REIT ETF) • O – $400/month (monthly dividend king) • WPC – $300/month (global commercial) • VICI – $200/month (casinos/resorts) • DLR – $200/month (data centers) • EQIX – $200/month (premium data centers) • SCHH – $200/month (low-cost ETF)

I plan to reinvest all dividends until retirement, then live off the income.

Any red flags in this portfolio? Too heavy on data centers? Any other REITs you think I should include or replace?

Appreciate any thoughts or suggestions from the community!

討論

評論 1:

Why REITs? And your age?

Dividends should not be a focus since they are tax inefficient compared to stocks that do not pay out a dividend. They’re basically tiny forced sales. If you plan to reinvest all dividends, it’s far more efficient to not receive them at all.


18. Where should I move my profit sharing to?

這篇文章的核心討論主題是:如何最有效地管理現有的退休資金(利潤分享帳戶和補充退休帳戶),以實現27年後的退休目標。具體問題包括:

  1. 資金配置的選擇

    • 作者擁有前公司的利潤分享帳戶(約2萬美元)和每月投入250美元的補充退休帳戶,但無法將利潤分享帳戶的資金轉入後者。
    • 尋求建議將這筆資金轉移到何處(例如個人退休帳戶IRA、新公司的退休計劃等),以最大化長期收益。
  2. 潛在的稅務或罰款問題

    • 擔心移動資金(如提前支取或轉帳)是否會觸發罰款或稅務負擔,需釐清相關規則(如401(k)轉存至IRA的流程)。
  3. 是否需要專業協助

    • 考慮是否應諮詢財務顧問,以制定適合長期退休目標的策略,尤其在對退休規劃知識有限的情況下。
  4. 退休目標的明確性

    • 希望未來退休金能覆蓋最終薪資的75%,並在27年後達成,需評估當前計劃的可行性與潛在缺口。

總結:作者的核心需求是「在避免財務懲罰的前提下,優化現有退休資金的配置,並尋求專業建議以確保長期目標的實現」。

內容

I have a profit sharing account from a company I previously worked for. I now am able to contribute to a pension fund that will hopefully pay 75% of my final salary. I have roughly $20,000 in the profit sharing account. I have an additional supplemental retirement account that I contribute $250 a month into.

Where is the best place to move this money? Will I get penalized for moving it?

I cannot move it into the additional /

supplemental retirement account. Should I go through a financial advisor ? I suppose the goal would be to retire 27 years from now.

Any advice or direction would be appreciated. I apologize for not knowing more on the issue.

討論

評論 1:

Are you allowed to do whatever/invest the funds?


19. Stock Portfolio Analyzer?

這篇文章的核心討論主題是:
「尋找一款具備AI功能的投資組合分析工具,並希望該工具能提供豐富的數據分析(如識別52週新高股票、特定時間段內的漲跌幅變化),甚至透過AI建議操作(如賣出時機)。」

具體重點包括:

  1. 核心需求

    • AI驅動的投資組合分析工具,具備進階分析能力。
    • 功能需包含掃描持股並標記特定條件(例如52週新高、30/60/90天內的價格變動百分比)。
    • 期望AI能提供操作建議(如賣出訊號)。
  2. 現有工具

    • 使用者已嘗試過Schwab、Fidelity、E-Trade等平台,以及Quinn(可能指「Q.ai」),但尚未滿足需求。
  3. 問題本質

    • 在Reddit上徵求推薦更符合需求的第三方分析工具或解決方案。

總結:文章聚焦於「AI強化投資分析」的技術需求,並尋求社群推薦合適的工具。

內容

Howdy Reddit Folks,

I am looking for a portfolio analyzer that would be AI powered it have rich analytics.

Requirement: Ability to scan the portfolio and highlight stocks that hit 52 week high, changed XY% in the past 30, 60/90 days or another time period. Perhaps use AI to suggest a sale etc.

What I have:

Schwab/Fidelity/Etrade/Personal Capital/Empower.

What I tried:

quinn

討論

無討論內容


20. Anyone here with experience building or working with market makers / liquidity providers?

這篇文章的核心討論主題是:尋求與具有市場做市商(market makers)和流動性提供者(liquidity providers)實際操作經驗的人交流

具體而言,發文者希望找到以下兩種專業人士:

  1. 有市場做市商或流動性提供者從業經驗的人(例如曾在相關機構工作)。
  2. 曾自行編寫市場做市系統(MM system)的人(具備技術實作背景)。

目的是獲取深入的行業見解("insights from someone who’s been in the weeds"),尤其關注實際操作層面的細節。

內容

Hey all

I am looking to connect with someone who has deep experience in how market makers and liquidity providers operate. Ideally someone who has either worked on one professionally or even coded their own MM system

I'd love to hear insights from someone who’s been in the weeds.

討論

無討論內容


21. Thoughts on my portfolio?

這篇文章的核心討論主題是:如何構建一個多元化、被動管理的退休投資組合(Roth IRA),重點在於長期持有、自動再投資(DRIP)和稅務優勢。以下是具體要點:

  1. 投資目標

    • 設定一個「設定後不管」(set and forget)的退休投資組合,追求長期增長與分散風險。
    • 利用Roth IRA的稅務優勢(如REITs的免稅股息、資本增值免稅等)。
  2. 資產配置與多元化策略

    • 核心持股:以股利成長(SCHD, 33.2%)和大盤指數(FXAIX, 35%)為主,佔比約70%,提供穩定性和市場基準回報。
    • 房地產(REITs):PLD、INVH、MAA合計25%,利用稅優帳戶持有高股息但稅務複雜的REITs。
    • 國際市場(VEU, 12.5%)與小型股(IWM, 12.5%):補充多元化,降低單一市場風險。
  3. 操作原則

    • 維持目標比例(如大盤35%、小型股12.5%),定期再平衡。
    • 優先啟用股息再投資(DRIP),複利累積資產。
  4. 工具選擇原因

    • SCHD:高品質股利成長股,平衡收益與增長。
    • FXAIX:低成本S&P 500指數基金,核心曝險。
    • REITs:透過稅優帳戶持有,避免普通帳戶的高稅負。
    • VEU/IWM:補足國際和小型股曝險,避免過度集中。

總結:這是一個強調「被動投資」、「稅務效率」和「多元分散」的退休組合建構計畫,適合長期累積財富的年輕投資者(如21歲)。

內容

Context - I am 21, this is a Roth Ira (REIT because tax advantage W) VEU for international exposure, and IWM is for small cap. Goal is to have a set and forget retirement portfolio, that is nice and diversified. Goal is to stay around these percents and to drip whenever possible.

SCHD -33.2% (Dividend Fund)

FXAIX -35.0% (SMP Tracker)

PLD -10.0% INVH -7.5% MAA -7.5% (REIT)

VEU -12.5% (IE)

IWM -12.5% (SC)

討論

評論 1:

Nice and solid. My portfolio is very similar to yours


22. Need Help with My Investment Strategy

这篇文章的核心討論主題可以總結為以下幾點:

  1. 長期投資策略的選擇
    作者(22歲,即將進入醫學院)與母親擁有高風險承受能力,並希望為長期(未來數十年)進行投資。目前已有部分資金(初始100k,現增長至133k)投資於ETF(如VOO、VTI、VXUS、JEPQ)和個股(如BRK/B、Microsoft),現在計劃新增300k資金,並探討不同投資組合的優劣。

  2. 潛在的投資組合選項

    • 100%投入VOO或VTI(廣泛市場指數)。
    • 50/50混合QQQM(納斯達克100成長股)與VTI。
    • 混合QQQM與SCHD(高股息ETF)。
    • 增加國際市場曝險(如VXUS)。
      作者傾向高風險、高成長的選項(如QQQM),因資金長期不需動用。
  3. 當前市場環境的投資方法
    討論「一次性投入」(lump sum)與「分批投入」(dollar cost averaging, DCA)的利弊。雖然長期來看「時間在市場中」通常勝出,但作者考慮當前政治與金融的不確定性,猶豫是否應分散投入以降低短期風險。

  4. 個人背景與財務目標
    作者未來可能成為高收入外科醫生(預期年薪500k),因此投資目標純粹為長期資產增長,無需考慮流動性或保守配置。

總結:文章主要圍繞「如何為長期高風險承受目標配置新增的300k資金」,並探討具體的ETF組合選擇與投入時機策略。

內容

Hello Everyone,

This is my first post here and I'm looking for some help. I am in a very lucky position to be where my mother has a high income and wants to start investing. She has never invested until she gave me 100k two years ago to start investing. Her goal was to have the investments be set up for me in the future. So very long term. She wants to give me another 300k to invest.

I am 22 years old and will be starting medical school soon. Me or my mother will not need use of this investment so my risk tolerance is high. I will be fairly busy in medical school so I want to set and forget. I am also thinking of going into surgery which will defacto place me at most likely 500k salary.

The first 100 thousand was invested 2 years ago and, as of this moment, is 133,000. My ETF holding are [VOO - 49k], [VTI - 46k], [VXUS - 12k], [JEPQ - 13k]. My individual stock holdings are [BRK/B - 6k], [Microsoft - 5.5k].

With the 300k I have been thinking of various strategies. 1. 100% VOO or VTI 2. A 50/50 Mix of QQQM/VTI. 3. A mix of QQQM/SCHD 4. One of these mixes but also increasing my VXUS. I wanted to see what y'all think about all these options and where I should go. I was leaning towards QQQM mixes because of the high risk tolerance and lack of need for the money.

Also with the extreme variability of the political and financial climate right now what is the best way to invest right now. Should I lump sum or dollar cost average. I know time in market usually wins but maybe spreading it out over the year can reduce my overall risk. But then again if I'm going to be holding this for a long time it probably wouldn't effect my very long term that much.

Thanks for the help!

討論

評論 1:

I have no long positions on the American markets at this moment in time, do with this information what you will.

On an unrelated note, you're destined to be a surgeon because only people who become surgeons would start counting money they'll make as surgeons before even starting school, lol.

評論 2:

Speaking from experience, my recommendation is for you to hire a personal investment advisor. Someone much older than you, who has been through market volatility. Interview various investment advisors and ask for proof of success during the 2008 to 2010 period. During economic periods like now and the 2008 to 2010 time frame, an advisor who can minimize loss is your best bet. Remember that a 50% drop in value takes a 100% rise just to break even. That break even period can take as much as 5 to 10 years, and can cost you a sizable loss in purchasing power. Best of success.

評論 3:

Wait for the bigger dip next month. Go VOO and QQQM. You have lots of time to build wealth.


23. DBS vs OCBC - Which Singapore Bank is the better investment?

這篇文章的核心討論主題是:比較新加坡兩大銀行(DBS與OCBC)的長期投資價值,並從財務指標、成長潛力、估值合理性及股息收益等角度,探討哪一家更值得投資。

具體分析面向包括:

  1. 財務表現比較

    • DBS的ROE(13.8%)和股息殖利率(5.2%)較高,但P/E(13.2)也較高,反映其「溢價估值」。
    • OCBC的ROE(12.5%)和股息殖利率(4.5%)略低,但P/E(11.9)較低,可能具「價值機會」。
  2. 成長潛力與風險

    • DBS的5年收益成長預測(7%)略高於OCBC(6%),且區域業務布局更廣。
    • OCBC專注於財富管理與保險,風險偏好較保守。
  3. 關鍵問題

    • DBS的溢價估值是否合理?
    • OCBC的低P/E是價值機會還是反映基本面弱勢?
    • 哪一家更適合作為股息投資標的?

最終目的在於徵求投資者的實際經驗與觀點,協助判斷兩家銀行的長期投資選擇。

內容

Hey all, looking at Singapore’s banking sector and curious to hear your thoughts on DBS (D05) vs. OCBC (O39). Both are major players in the region, but which one looks like the better long-term bet?

DBS Group Holdings (D05)

• ROE: 13.8%

• P/E: 13.2

• 5Y Earnings Growth Forecast: 7%

• Dividend Yield: 5.2%

DBS is the largest bank in Singapore, with a strong regional presence. Higher ROE and a solid dividend yield, but the valuation is also a bit richer.

OCBC Bank (O39)

• ROE: 12.5%

• P/E: 11.9

• 5Y Earnings Growth Forecast: 6%

• Dividend Yield: 4.5%

OCBC is more focused on wealth management and insurance. Slightly lower valuation and more conservative risk profile.

Key Questions:

• Does DBS’s premium valuation make sense given its higher growth?

• OCBC has a lower P/E – value opportunity or justified discount?

• Which is the better dividend play?

Would love to hear your take - anyone holding either of these?

討論

無討論內容


24. Looking for a mid-priced brokerage that will offer advice/research

这篇文章的核心討論主題是:尋找一個在費用、服務和投資建議之間取得平衡的證券經紀商

作者比較了Fidelity和Merrill Lynch的優缺點:

  • Fidelity:免佣金、操作方便、客服優良,但缺乏深入的投資建議和分析報告,且顧問無法提供實質指導。
  • Merrill Lynch:提供專業建議和市場洞察,但佣金費用高昂。

作者的理想需求是:

  • 費用介於Fidelity(低)和Merrill Lynch(高)之間。
  • 能提供實質投資建議、分析報告,而非僅推銷產品。
  • 設有教育資源(非廣告性質)。

最終問題在於:是否存在這樣的「獨角獸」券商,能同時滿足低成本、優質服務和專業指導的需求?

內容

I currently have an account with Fidelity and love their ease and their customer service for transactions and technical issues is excellent. I also love the no commissions. What I don't like is, other than trying to sell me packaged products, they are not a great source of insight nor can my advisor give me any advice.

I moved over from Merrill Lynch because I was not happy about paying $100s of dollars in commissions for trades that I came up with and initiated. I do understand that what I was paying for was their expertise and guidance and I loved talking to my broker about the economy, ideas, what his ML people were saying, etc.

So perhaps I am looking for a unicorn, but I would like to find a brokerage that might charge a bit more than fidelity (but less than ML) but that also is willing to give advice, produce analyst reports and maybe even have a learning center that aren't just ads for products.

Does this exist? TIA

討論

評論 1:

I also recommend schwab. Fidelity started as a full fee mutual fund company, schwab started as a brokerage. The Schwab offerings are more sophisticated and the web site is better (I have both Fido and Schwab). They also run investing seminars. I do think Fidelity does 2 things better. Fidelity has a better do it yourself retirement planner and better sweep options. With schwab the sweep has very low interest rates so you have to intentionally buy a better fund. I only had Fidelity for recently left employer 401(k). It is a trivial balance since I kept it there for the plan thing even though I have other planning going on. I just opened an HSA at Fidelity because of the sweep feature.

On the analyst front, you are unlikely to be satisfied outside of a brokerage that also employs analysts. Fidelity has decent market strategy and Schwab has good fundamental summary reports. - I used to be an institutional analyst and have never been satisfied with anything in the analyst report front from any one firm - really no one firm has great analysis for everything. I think you can do ok with single firm investment strategy. Its been a long time, but back in the old days Merrill had the broadest coverage because they did investment banking for so many firms globally. Analysts tend to be concentrated in whatever industry the brokerage firm focuses on, and the inverse is also true. (this is a serious source of bias and one reason you need more than one firm’s reports.) I don’t think I would try to focus on analyst reports, unless you have a lot of training on how to read analyst reports critically and have the opportunity to have multiple reports for the same company so that you can decide who you want to listen to

評論 2:

Fidelity will indeed give you advice if you put your assets as AUM.

評論 3:

Schwab. I recall showing interest in CDs and the trader pointed me towards Money Market Treasury funds. I'm glad he did.

評論 4:

Fidelity has their research page with some screening tools. There are ratings by analysts there, for what its worth.


25. US Dollar up or Down after Tariffs?

這篇文章的核心討論主題是:美元對主要貨幣(如歐元、日圓、英鎊、人民幣等)匯率的未來走勢,並探討了兩種對立的觀點:

  1. 美元可能升值的原因

    • 政府收入增加
    • 貿易逆差減少
  2. 美元可能貶值的原因

    • 美國經濟或政治不穩定
    • 非美國投資者對美元失去信心

最終,作者詢問讀者對美元匯率走向的看法。
總結:文章聚焦於分析美元匯率的潛在變動方向及其背後的因素

內容

Have heard both that Dollar will rise and fall against a basket of major currencies (Euro, Yen, Pound, Yuan….). The arguments that the US dollar will rise is that more government revenue & lower trade deficit. The arguments that the US dollar will fall is that instability and lost of trust by non American investors . What do you think ?

討論

評論 1:

🔮

評論 2:

Just read this article.

Never use rational arguments to explain the movement of the Dollar. It is beyond the scope of simple trade imbalance correlational studies.

Everything depends on the generation of alternatives for Central bank purchases. The Bund market is an example of one, but is it enough to suck up excess liquidity?

Who is to say there will be excess?

Just watch the 10-year yield. If it shoots up, and people don't buy - then you need to worry. Right now, it's stable.

評論 3:

I think it will fall, nothing will offset the less demand, also trump has repeatedly said he wants a weak dollar to enhance U.S. export competitiveness.


26. Future of VTI(long terms aspects)

这篇文章的核心討論主題是關於長期投資策略的考量,特別是針對VTI(Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF)的未來展望,以及美國在全球經濟和政治地位的潛在變化對投資的影響。作者是一位24歲的投資者,擁有40年的投資時間跨度,目前持有VTI和VXUS(Vanguard Total International Stock ETF)的組合。他提出以下幾個關鍵問題:

  1. 是否應該繼續定期定額投資(DCA):作者在考慮是否維持當前的投資策略,或是否有其他因素需要納入考量。

  2. 美國全球地位的潛在衰退:作者擔心美國可能失去其世界強權的地位,並提到特朗普的關稅政策可能導致盟友與美國關係惡化,這是否會影響長期投資的選擇。

總結來說,文章的核心討論圍繞在長期投資策略的選擇(如VTI和VXUS的配置)、定期定額投資的持續性,以及地緣政治和經濟政策(如關稅)對美國市場長期表現的潛在影響。作者希望評估這些因素是否應該改變其投資方向。

內容

What is the future outlook of VTI, y’all think? I currently have a 40 year time period, just started investing at 24. I hold a mix of VTI/VXUS currently. I’m wondering whether or not i should continue DCA, or if there’s other factors in play. Could the US be looking to lose its status as a world power? The Trump tariffs are turning allies against the US.

討論

評論 1:

Stop trying to time the market. Block out the noise and keep investing regularly.

評論 2:

Yes, continue to DCA. If stocks tank, even better for you because you’re young. Better to get em on sale!

評論 3:

Vti with a 40 year time horizon? Hahahah this sub man. Holy shit

評論 4:

[deleted]


27. Advise on whether to sell META

這段討論的核心主題是:投資者是否應該賣出獲利豐厚的META股票(目前上漲220%),並將資金轉投其他股票(如NVDA、AMZN)或ETF,或是繼續持有META

具體要點包括:

  1. 投資組合現狀
    • META是當前唯一大幅盈利的持股(+220%),其餘股票(如GOOG等)均虧損,與市場整體趨勢一致。
  2. 決策困境
    • 是否應該獲利了結META,轉為持有現金或重新配置到其他標的(如NVDA、AMZN或ETF)。
    • 對其他持股(虧損的「爛股票」)是否該繼續持有(bag holder問題)。
  3. 尋求建議
    • 詢問他人會選擇持有或賣出META,並考慮市場環境(整體下跌)下的策略。

本質問題:在市場波動中,如何平衡獲利了結、風險分散與未來潛在機會之間的取捨。

內容

I am up 220% on META which I bought a couple of years ago and am thinking of selling it and either sitting on the cash for now or reinvesting in NVDA or AMZ or other stocks and ETFs. The other stocks in my portfolio are GOOG and other crappy stocks which I am a bag holder. Everything besides META is down big like the rest of the market. If it was you, would you hold META or sell?

討論

評論 1:

Hold. They’re printing cash and buying back shares

評論 2:

What % of your portfolio are they? If it's a super concentrated position it might be worth selling to reduce risk. But if it's less than 5% it might be okay to continue to hold

評論 3:

WTF why would you sell the cheapest one making its own chips and growing???? Sell that crap Google. Google is dying…. The new generation isn’t “googling”, they are “Groking” or “Chat GPTing”. This is going to cut googled advertisement revenue and YouTube can’t keep it afloat forever… if she’s spin off YouTube - buy YouTube… sell Google

評論 4:

I would sell purely because I don’t agree with monetizing the mental health of users. Their profitability has been impressive, but the harm that they inflict on society is significant.

評論 5:

If you're not short of money right now, keep holding


28. Shoot my elephant gun at Noble corp?

這篇文章的核心討論主題是在市場低點時投資高股息、價值被低估的股票(即「逢低買進」策略),並以石油產業的兩家公司(XOM和Noble)為例進行分析。具體要點包括:

  1. 逢低買進策略
    作者分享過往成功經驗,如在油價暴跌時買入埃克森美孚(XOM),當時股息率高達9%,但後悔未加碼投資。

  2. 當前關注標的(Noble)

    • 高股息與回購:Noble提供超過8%的股息,且公司將約一半收益用於股票回購,財務穩健(每股收益$3,股息$2)。
    • 產業優勢:鑽探業需求長期存在,且船舶基礎設施的進入門檻高,供給不易快速擴張。
    • 估值目標:作者認為股價低於$23時具投資價值,並將其比喻為「雪茄菸屁股」型投資(短期仍有剩餘價值可挖掘)或「現金奶牛」。
  3. 投資邏輯
    聚焦於傳統能源產業中被低估、現金流穩定的公司,透過高股息和回購實現收益,並認為市場可能低估其長期價值。

結論:全文圍繞「如何透過價值投資策略,在週期性產業低點布局高收益標的」展開,強調財務數據分析與產業特性評估。

內容

Been saving to buy the dip.

My most successfull attempt was buying XOM when oil prices went below 0. almost 9% dividend at the time. only regret is not buying enough.

Noble is now paying out over 8% and has about half in share buybacks. payout is 2$ on 3$ earnings per share. target price for buying is <23$ a share. drilling will be around, ship infrastructure isn't easily built.

line of thought is that this is a cigar butt / cash cow.

Thoughts?

討論

評論 1:

I’ve been burned on offshore many times so would also echo advice here to tread carefully. If you’re into this sector thematically also look at VAL TDW RIG and some servicing like SLB and HAL

評論 2:

Eh I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's probably dead money. That 8% dividend means they are basically paying out most of what they make which is not really sustainable. If or more likely when the dividen gets cut the share price will collapse too meaning your out your dividend and your principal investment. The offshore industry as a whole is a very politically sensitive field. Economically it's better than shale but again due to the politically/environmentally sensitive nature and long term commitment these contracts require it has really been shunned for years. I don't know if I see a catalyst for offshore oil industry to boom like it once did. Without a major and sustained increase in oil price or a radical sustained change in governmental policy I don't see this ever really taking off.

評論 3:

Timing market bad. DCA good.CAVEMAN NOISES

評論 4:

Remindme! 6 months

評論 5:

[deleted]


29. Hot take: tariffs aren’t the primary driver of the current market selloff

这篇文章的核心討論主題是:近期市場波動的主要驅動因素並非關稅問題,而是市場對美聯儲(Federal Reserve)貨幣政策的不滿與施壓

具體論點包括:

  1. 關稅非主因:若關稅是市場波動的主因,受衝擊的應是與關稅直接相關的企業,但實際跌幅最大的反而是不受關稅影響的高貝塔(high-beta)、投機性科技股(如納斯達克指數跌幅達14%,遠高於標普500和道瓊指數)。
  2. 市場對美聯儲的「抗議」:當前市場情緒反映投資者要求美聯儲加速降息(MORE rate cuts, NOW),因成長股(growth stocks)估值已過高,甚至超過2021年零利率(ZIRP)和量化寬鬆(QE)時期的水平。
  3. 歷史相似性:當前市場行為類似2015-2016年與2018-2019年的「市場耍脾氣」(tantrum),當時經濟數據並未顯示衰退跡象,但美聯儲最終妥協(如推遲升息或轉向降息),隨後市場快速反彈並創新高。

結論:作者認為市場波動的核心是投資者試圖迫使美聯儲改變政策立場(轉向更寬鬆),而非關稅或實體經濟問題。

內容

If tariffs were the main driver of the recent market volatility, you’d expect tariff-adjacent names to be the hardest hit. But that’s not the case – instead, the biggest decliners have been the high-beta, speculative tech names that are mostly IMMUNE from tariffs because they don’t sell physical goods. The NASDAQ Composite has suffered a much bigger drawdown (-14%) than either the S&P 500 (-9%) or Dow Jones (-8%).

I believe markets are throwing a tantrum primarily directed at the Federal Reserve. They want MORE rate cuts, and they want them NOW. Growth stocks were priced for perfection 6 weeks ago, and by some metrics even exceeded the ZIRP- & QE-boosted valuations of 2021.

There's some resemblance between current market behavior and the tantrums of 2015-16 & 2018-19, when nothing in the hard economic data suggested a recession was imminent. In both cases, the Federal Reserve caved (i.e. changed their previously-communicated policy forecasts) after ~20% market drawdowns, by delaying ZIRP liftoff for another year in 2016, and pivoting from raising to lowering rates in 2019. And once the policy pivots were announced, markets quickly rebounded to new records within months.

討論

評論 1:

From where do you think Google and Meta make most of their money?

answer: advertising.

What do you think these tariffs will do to consumer spending and to the advertisers for those consumers?

評論 2:

Not a hot take--you're 100% wrong.

評論 3:

The idea is that tariffs are going to slow the economy across the board, hitting all companies

評論 4:

OK. You do you.

評論 5:

The tariffs are the symptom of having a lunatic in charge of the world economy who is actively dismantling it.


總體討論重點

以下是29篇文章的條列式重點總結,並附上對應的錨點連結與逐條細節說明:


1. Trump to announce new 20% tariffs this week on every single US trading partner

重點

  1. 關稅的廣泛衝擊:全面性20%關稅對各產業的潛在影響,不確定性干擾投資決策。
  2. 經濟連鎖效應
    • 消費者需求疲軟下,進口商品價格上漲可能進一步抑制消費。
    • 企業成本(COGS)增加,壓縮利潤而非保護本土產業。
  3. 投資策略困惑
    • 市場不確定性導致對SP500 ETF的進退兩難(DCA、撤出或觀望)。
    • 尋求其他投資者應對關稅風險的經驗。

2. Accenture (ACN) one of the hardest hit public consulting companies

重點

  1. 政府合約節省金額比較:表格列出Deloitte、Booz Allen等公司的節省金額與合約數量。
  2. 上市公司波動:Accenture因合約減少2.4億美元,股價下跌12%。

3. What is everyone doing investment wise about economic uncertainty?

重點

  1. 自動化工具限制:Wealthfront風險等級調整與分散目標衝突(增加美債、減少國際股票)。
  2. 個人化需求:需平衡高風險非流動資產(私募股權)與流動性緩衝。

4. History of U.S. Bear vs Bull Markets

重點

  1. 牛熊市週期:牛市持續時間通常長於熊市,長期投資策略的合理性。

5. A company I bought stock in is awarding preferred shares to common stock holders

重點

  1. 優先股股利困惑:醫用大麻公司轉型加密貨幣後,每1000股普通股配1股優先股,投資者對權益與申領流程不清。

6. 401k - company does not offer matching until after 1 year probation

重點

  1. 投資順序建議:緊急備用金>Roth IRA>HSA>無匹配的401(k)。

7. Investing in Germany (DAX) as an American

重點

  1. 匯率影響績效:DAX ETF(美元計價)落後指數30%,尋求避險或替代方案。

8. Yield difference between Money market funds vs regular government funds

重點

  1. 稅收與收益率差異:貨幣市場基金(40%)與長期債券基金(29%)的免稅市政債券收益率落差原因。

9. How can I optimize my situation?

重點

  1. 購屋儲蓄計畫:每月新增965美元投入頭期款,5年目標55,645美元。

10. Largest premium paid on public company acquisition?

重點

  1. 極端溢價案例:探討1900%溢價收購的產業集中性與歷史案例。

(因篇幅限制,以下簡列標題,完整細節請參照原文錨點)

11. Daily General Discussion Thread

重點:開放討論與資源導向的投資問答框架。

12. Vanguard's VMFXX safety concerns

重點:政治風險下貨幣市場基金的穩定性評估。

13. [ESOP transfers advice